Being smart isn't what it used to be

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.

Jan 23, 2023 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS CHINA — HOW TO COVER UP 200,000 DEAD A WEEK: While the world's elite was distracted in Davos last week, China's horrific Covid outbreak continued to unfold, and it's time to circle back. It's the lunar new year season, which means peak Chinese travel — around 2 billion trips that could provide lots of opportunity for the disease to spread further. Still, Chinese government epidemiologist Wu Zunyou told the state-owned Global Times that 80 percent of the population had been infected in recent weeks, arguing that since Covid has infected nearly everyone already, there is only a low risk of it spreading much further. China's Covid death toll remains opaque: NPR's Emily Feng reported last Friday that some estimate 1 billion people in China have contracted Covid in the past month,and that about 33,000 people are dying from the disease each day. COLOMBIA — FIRST BLACK VP ON CLIMATE REPARATIONS AND ATTEMPTS TO KILL HER: Two years ago Francia Elena Márquez Mina was a climate and social justice activist. She comes from an Afro Colombian community that makes up at least 6 percent of Colombia's population. And 77 percent of Black Colombians live in extreme poverty or are at risk for it. "We're not descendants of slaves," she told POLITICO's Jesús Rodriguez in an interview, "We're descendants of free people who were enslaved." RUSSIA — WAGNER PARAMILITARY GROUP SET TO GET AFRICAN MINE CASH INFUSION: The United States will this week designate the Russian mercenary Wagner Group a "transnational criminal organization" — a tightening of sanctions that are aimed at disrupting its business. According to a U.S. diplomatic cable obtained by POLITICO's Erin Banco, Wagner is in line for mining profits of almost $1 billion in the Central African Republic. That funding would likely be used by the group to acquire new weapons and fighters, said a Western official granted anonymity by POLITICO. POST-DAVOS BRAIN FOOD The surprise resignation of now former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had many Global Insider readers applauding her honest communication around the personal toll of leading a country through terror attacks and a pandemic.Other readers weren't ready to reconcile with her hardline Covid policies. LETTING IT GO: But there's another contrast worth noting: Ardern did what Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum won't do: let go of a role she deeply cared about. Politics is not business, or running a global non-profit like WEF. Still, at just half his age, 42-year-old Ardern clearly has some lessons for 84-year-old Schwab. Founders often struggle to pass the torch in their organization. There's even a name for it: Founder's Dilemma. Noam Wasserman, as a Harvard professor (he's now at Yeshiva University), concluded that 4 out of 5 founders are forced out of CEO roles: "Most are shocked when investors insist that they relinquish control, and they're pushed out of office in ways they don't like and well before they want to abdicate." While Arden is a politician, not a corporate founder, she's showing herself a succession pioneer as well as rare political communication talent: leaving on her own terms, but giving her chosen successor a fair chance to succeed.   JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA'S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.     INTERVIEW — JEFF MAGGIONCALDA, CEO, COURSERA Now entering its second decade, Coursera, the online course company, isn't making a profit yet, but now has 113 million learners in its system, and partnerships with more than 100 universities. Maggioncalda sat down with Global Insider in Davos to talk about how the most recent advances in AI are shaking up education. The text below has been edited for clarity. On everyone's favorite new AI chat app: I've been going deep on Chat GPT: I believe it's going to fundamentally change education and work. It's the real thing. The world is changing faster and faster because of technology and globalization: that includes computer programming and data science and AI. [But] I didn't see this generative AI thing coming — everyone was tuned into predictive AI. What makes generative AI different? Some people say it's just like a glorified autocomplete. But it's not just predictive, it gives you new capability. When it gets good enough, then it starts doing weird things like creating new ideas by combining old ideas. This is a very interactive method of learning. It helps me think. It's a step change for education technology to now not only store and retrieve information, but increasingly provide the thought partnership and a very good writing assistant. Good writing won't be a standout skill anymore?  Good writing has been a signal of education, a signal of ability to think. But once writing becomes like a calculator is in math, then everybody has the ability to write well. How do you know who can think? The value is going to go to the most creative thinkers. And that's in the cognitive jobs. So the work will stay, but the jobs will go? Like the farm workforce mostly disappeared? You can now develop skills no matter where you are. People can do jobs, no matter where they are. That means global job opportunities. [But] you'll need far fewer lawyers, far fewer writers, far fewer of anybody who deals with language. With so much more supply in the knowledge economy, I think that gives way to the experience economy. What experiences do I have: whether care-related, tourism, influencers, sports, pets? The premium on cognitive excellence is going to go down, but the premium for what humans are really good at will go up: making people laugh, making people have fun. What type of skills will make you a winner in this economy?  The demand for cognitive skills will be decreasing, except at the very top. But experiential skills, communication skills, empathy skills, are going to be increasingly important because you're going to be doing more work with other people across borders, across cultures. It's way harder to be a super smart person [and succeed in the experience economy] than to be a super empathetic person. Where will the winners be — does it even matter? Talent in emerging countries, and companies in wealthy countries, are going to be winners here, and they're gonna find each other. Those companies can now go for a global talent pool that is far more affordable than the talent in their home country. If you are in an emerging economy and have the skills, you're gonna get awesome job opportunities: It's going to reduce the disparity of wealth among talent. But companies in emerging countries are going to struggle to hold onto talent. I just finished traveling 50,000 miles since Oct. 1. I've been to 13 countries, 40 cities. When I'm talking to students in Merida, on the Yucatan Peninsula, they're going "Wow, I can make three times more than I ever thought I could, because I'm learning computer science. I'm gonna get hired, not by a company in America, but I'm gonna get hired by a European company or an American company [and stay put]." How are governments thinking about this tech upheaval to education? Governments can now upgrade their education system. They can also facilitate economic opportunity [for their people] because they can create a skilled talent pool. They can focus now on attracting not the companies, but the individuals. They can start by importing skilled talent — digital nomad visa programs, for example, without building some datacenter or car manufacturing plant [using taxpayer money]. But the longer term, sustainable strategy is domestic talent development. GLOBETROTTERS OH, BORIS: It's now harder to keep track of Boris Johnson's scandals than his many children. And sometimes the issues are linked! BBC chair Richard Sharp helped arrange a guarantee on a loan of up to nearly $1 million for then the British prime minister, the Times of London reported, just weeks before Johnson appointed Sharp to the BBC role. The reason: Despite a lucrative writing and speaking career before Downing Street, Johnson was neck deep in divorce payments, child care costs and a Downing Street refurbishment not covered by taxpayers. Sharp, a former Goldman Sachs banker, was already a shortlisted candidate for the public broadcaster post when the financial arrangement was proposed. Civil servants at the U.K. Cabinet Office forced Johnson to drop the loan proposal. MOVES Jeff Zients will replace Ron Klain as President Joe Biden'schief of staff. Klain is the longest-serving chief of staff to a Democratic president.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     BRAIN FOOD New Globalization, New Orleans: "If you're willing to put several billions of dollars into building a new port, that's a big guess that globalization is not going away," Edward Gresser, the director of trade and global markets at the Progressive Policy Institute and former head of economic research for the Office of the United States Trade Representative, told the New York Times about NOLA's latest reinvention. Holding Politicians Accountable for Nasty Speech: via a "Dignity Index" Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt and producer Hannah Farrow. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.