Biden’s Asia breakthrough

The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.

Jan 12, 2023 View in browser   By Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Phelim Kine Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice.   Send tips | Subscribe here| Email Eli | Email Lauren When President JOE BIDEN sits down with Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA on Friday, it will mark a major tete-a-tete that could have profound implications for U.S. policy towards a critical part of the globe. It's also an opportunity for Biden to underscore how his diplomatic efforts in the face of new geopolitical threats are bringing allies into closer alignment, and delivering in an area where DONALD TRUMP's sharp-elbowed approachlargely failed to achieve results. Kishida comes to the White House fresh off of outlining a plan for his country to shed its postwar constraints, both political and psychological, and increase its defense spending and boost military capabilities to not just deter attacks but to strike enemies if necessary. It's a profound shift for Japan, long averse to militarization and wary of getting dragged into global conflicts. Kishida's newly stated goal of increasing Japan's defense spending to 2.7 percent of the country's GDP by 2027, comes on the heels of German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ's Zeitenwende address. Days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Scholz declared the war a "turning point," reason enough, he said, to finally boost Berlin's defense spending to 2 percent of Germany's gross domestic product, reversing decades of extreme caution on military matters following the end of the Cold War. Both announcements are remarkable about-faces for nations with complicated histories. They come just a few years after Trumptried bullying allies into recommitting to their own defense. Many are doing exactly that — but on Biden's watch. "What Kishida has announced is just as significant as what Scholz did," said IAN BREMMER , the president of The Eurasia Group, a global risk assessment firm. While the shift is largely precipitated by the changing security environment, he added, "Biden's leadership has made it easier for Japan to lean in because they know he's going to be there. Trump has really receded. I'm just not hearing Japanese leaders worried about Trump's return as they were." Kishida's trip to Washington is the last stop on a week-long trip to meet with G-7 allies ahead of the May summit he will host in his home city of Hiroshima that will focus, in part, on nuclear disarmament. It will also come as he has been weakened at home by a series of scandals. "Kishida needs a bear hug from Biden, and Biden can give it to him," said JOSHUA WALKER, president and CEO of the U.S.-based Japan Society. With little progress around a broader trans-Pacific trade agreement, the meetings are likely to focus on defense issues and technology, specifically limiting exports of semiconductors to China. They also could center on Japan's concerns about regional stability, which have deepened amid North Korean leader KIM JONG UN's recent resumption of a brazen regime of missile tests and China's recent saber rattling about Taiwan. "Most of Tokyo's concern focuses on China, but North Korea continues to demonstrate it should not be forgotten," said SHEILA SMITH, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The longer-term balance of power across the Indo-Pacific will be determined by how integrated the strategies of Japan, the U.S., Australia and India can be." Biden and Kishida agree on that. The White House, in fact, has been heartened by Kishida's response to the war in Ukraine — which began just months after he was elected — and his willingness to condemn Russia's invasion and impose strict sanctions alongside the U.S. and European allies. That's a major reversal from 2014, when Japan sought to avoid taking sides following Russia's annexation of Crimea. In an interview last week with the Washington Post, Kishida also echoed Biden's view that Moscow's unprovoked invasion is about not just the fate of eastern Europe but the rules-based international order itself. "We see a much greater convergence of how Japan looks at the world and how the U.S. looks at the world," said one senior administration official, who agreed to discuss the bilateral meetings on the condition of anonymity. Tokyo's shift to a more forward-leaning posture on defense, the official continued, "reflects the tremendous degree of confidence that comes from U.S. investments in the alliance." READ MORE BY CLICKING HERE MESSAGE US —Are you FUMIO KISHIDA? We want to hear from you. And we'll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. POTUS PUZZLER This one is from Allie. Which president opened up a whiskey distillery after his time in office? (Answer at the bottom.) The Oval A CONSTANT DRIP: Additional classified documents from Biden's time as vice president were found at his home in Wilmington, Del., White House counsel RICHARD SAUBER said Thursday. The batch was located during searches of Biden's residences in both Wilmington and Rehoboth Beach, Del., and prompted by the discovery of classified documents at his D.C. office at the Penn Biden Center. "As I said earlier this week, people know I take classified documents and classified materials seriously," Biden said Thursday morning soon after the news broke. "I also said we're cooperating fully and completely with the Justice Department's review." Our KELLY HOOPER has more details. SPECIAL TREATMENT: By mid day, Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND had announced he was appointing former U.S. Attorney ROBERT HUR as a special counsel to further investigate the issue, our KYLE CHENEY reports. RECOMMENDED READS: "Multiple Biden aides have been interviewed by federal law enforcement in classified document review," NBC News' CAROL E. LEE and MIKE MEMOLI … "Who is Robert Hur, the special counsel overseeing the Biden document probe," CNN's DEVAN COLE … "A side-by-side look at the Trump, Biden classified documents," by AP's MEG KINNARD. TWEET OF THE DAY: Satirical Twitter account New York Times Pitchbot, which pokes fun of the Gray Lady, made light of the document news Thursday: Tweet by New York Times Pitchbot | Twitter THANKS BUT, UH, NO THANKS?: Bloomberg's JUSTIN SINK politely suggested National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY turn over the podium back to press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE during Thursday's briefing so that there would be time left to ask her about the classified documents. "Jeez," Jean-Pierre said. "Justin did not hold back at all." WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: Anything about the latest Consumer Price Index numbers. "U.S. inflation eased to 6.5 percent in December compared with a year earlier, marking the sixth straight monthly deceleration since a mid-2022 peak. The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose at its slowest pace since October 2021," WSJ's GWYNN GUILFORD reports. Several White House officials tweeted out the news Thursday. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: Anything about those classified documents, probably. But also this piece by our JONATHAN LEMIRE, CAITLIN EMMA and ADAM CANCRYN about the potential debt ceiling showdown: "The White House is not taking the looming standoff lightly, noting that, among House Republicans, the saber-rattling has already begun. Some Republicans, armed with only a razor-thin majority, have publicly entertained the idea of demanding policy concessions in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling ahead of its late September deadline. Democrats counter that no such concessions were made under Donald Trump and that, more importantly, a default would potentially upend the financial markets, cost millions of jobs and downgrade the nation's credit rating." EO INCOMING: The Biden administration is working on an executive order that would target U.S. investments in China, though the administration is unlikely to act before Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN's visit to China in February, Axios' HANS NICHOLS reports. THE BUREAUCRATS POWELL'S TIGHTROPE: Our VICTORIA GUIDA takes a closer look into the battle between Wall Street and Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL, as he continues to make moves to tame inflation and push against financial markets. "It is a very peculiar tango that we're dancing here," said TORSTEN SLOK, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. "On the one hand, the Fed must surely be very happy with inflation going down. But they don't want markets to complicate the speed with which we're going down." PERSONNEL MOVES: EMMA EATMAN is now manager on the global communications team managing global value chain comms at the Estée Lauder Companies, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was press secretary for the Department of Labor. Agenda Setting THE BOOSTER RESISTANCE: Less than 40 percent of people 65 and up have received the updated Covid-19 booster, and state and federal health officials are growing frustrated as a holiday spike in cases brought thousands of seniors to the hospital despite the widespread availability of the vaccines, our MEGAN MESSERLY and Adam Cancryn report. The White House, also growing frustrated with the booster resistance, is taking action of its own, forwarding lists of senior facilities with zero people vaccinated to state regulators for review. ALL ABOUT THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY: The Interior Department plans to introduce a major update regarding regulations on the development of renewable energy on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf — a geographical term that encompasses all the states that have water borderlines, our KELSEY TAMBORRINO reports for Pros. The changes aim to make the process for deploying U.S. renewable energy projects less complex. What We're Reading Harris navigates double standard in unscripted moments as VP (The Hill's Amie Parnes) Republicans Have Officially Started Making Joe Biden's Life Hell (Vanity Fair's Eric Lutz) POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER GEORGE WASHINGTON's post-presidency was a busy one, especially after he used rye crops at his Mount Vernon residence to create a whiskey empire. According to Smithsonian Magazine, "the distillery finished construction in 1798, and by 1799, it was the largest whiskey distillery in the country. That year, the distillery produced 11,000 gallons of clear, unaged whiskey, which Washington sold for a total of $1,800 ($120,000 by today's standards)." A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   Follow us on Twitter Eli Stokols @EliStokols Lauren Egan @Lauren_V_Egan Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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