Biden's ride or die

The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.

Jan 13, 2023 View in browser   By Sam Stein, Eli Stokols and Lauren Egan Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice.   Send tips | Subscribe here| Email Eli | Email Lauren Programming Note: We'll be off Monday, Jan. 16, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, Jan. 17. We hope absence makes the heart grow fonder.  As he navigates the tricky politics of divided government during a likely reelection campaign, there is one relationship President JOE BIDEN must attend to above all others: the one he has with CHUCK SCHUMER.  No one in Congress is more important to the White House's continued success on federal judges and other nominees than the Democratic Senate majority leader. Conversely, it's easy to see the major pitfalls of the next two years — from government shutdowns to debt ceiling standoffs — turning into outright calamities if both men are not on the same page. "I'm trying to think if there is any reason to say anything other than Chuck Schumer and I can't," said DANNY WEISS, NANCY PELOSI's former chief of staff, when asked which congressional relationship was most critical for Biden. "He's the person who has the greatest ability to protect the president's agenda and to protect the successes he's had so far." Those close to the two leaders say they have good rapport and a smooth working relationship. Schumer, in a statement, said he calls chief of staff RON KLAIN so often, "I know his phone number by heart." Part of what's made the relationship successful, each side concedes, has been self-awareness about the elements of it, including when Biden chose to largely defer to Schumer as a way to reel in recalcitrant Senate Democrats on Build Back Better negotiations. "We've been very respectful and honest with each other and they understand what we can and can't do," said Schumer. "I expect nothing will change in the next two years." Klain, for his part, returned the compliment in kind. "As the President said himself, Leader Schumer 'delivers,'" he said in a statement. "The President and Leader Schumer have known each other for decades, their relationship is not only a key partnership but a close friendship. I know the President looks forward to continue working very closely with Leader Schumer in the months ahead." Yet, the next two years will be trickier. The big fights going forward won't just be within the party but between the parties. And there is modest concern that Biden and Schumer might have different approaches or objectives in the midst of those fights. Democrats were in a similar place during the BARACK OBAMA years. After Republicans took over the House following the 2010 elections, a series of high-stakes standoffs ensued. While then-Senate Majority Leader HARRY REID took hard-lined stances in negotiations over the debt ceiling, budget, and Bush tax cuts, Biden twice swooped in at MITCH MCCONNELL's behest to cut a deal. Reid, his former advisers confirmed, was furious. Years later, as a debt ceiling fight loomed again, Reid demanded that Obama keep Biden on the sideline. And he did. Now president, Biden has taken the position that there shouldn't be deal-making at all on the debt ceiling. "We will not be doing any negotiation," press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said on Friday. But they have also not closed the door in the past to some sort of negotiated settlement, and the brewing fear within the party is that, at some point, the president and Senate Democrats are going to be at a crossroads. Biden, whose instinct is to forge common ground with the opposition, will have to find some way through — and as our colleagues reported yesterday, his aides are already trying to make inroads on the Hill to that end. But he will need Schumer's help. The Senate leader has, arguably, more variables to contend with than the president. It's not just the no-negotiation-at-all posture of his progressive members. He has a host of vulnerable moderate incumbents up for reelection in 2024, too. On top of all that, there is Biden's likely reelection campaign to factor in. "In many ways Sen. Schumer's job becomes more difficult over the next two years," said RODELL MOLLINEAU, a former top Senate adviser to Reid. "There will be pressure to deliver the White House wins going into the 2024, but the Senate map is challenging and some of our incumbents might have different opinions than the Administration on what defines a win." The clock may be ticking faster than expected. On Friday, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN sent a letter to House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY stating "the outstanding debt of the United States is projected to reach the statutory limit" this coming Thursday. The Treasury would have to take extraordinary measures that would allow them to survive until, at least, early June. But the note marked the beginning of a new stage of Schumer-Biden relations, and it may not be an altogether easy one. MESSAGE US —Are you CHRISTOPHER SLEVIN, deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs? We want to hear from you. And we'll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. POTUS PUZZLER This one is from Allie. Which president read, on average, a book a day — even while in office? (Answer at the bottom.) Cartoon of the Week Cartoon by Rick McKee | Courtesy It's that time of the week again — the day where we feature a political cartoon! This one is by RICK MCKEE. Our very own MATT WUERKER publishes a selection of cartoons from all over the country. View the cartoon carousel here. The Oval IT'S A DATE: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Friday formally invited the president to deliver the State of the Union — and Biden has said yes. The speech will take place on Feb. 7. Even though Biden is about to start his third year in office, this will only be his second SOTU address. He delivered his first one last year, on March 1. The one he gave in April 2021 was a joint address before Congress — not technically a State of the Union — timed to mark his 100th day in office. MERRICK'S MESS: Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND's decision to appoint a special counsel to investigate the classified documents found at Biden's office and residence show just how the Justice Department continues to find "itself entangled in presidential politics," AP's ERIC TUCKER reports. "The appointment seemed to nod to a reality that probes that involve a president — in this case, Garland's boss — are different." ET TU COLBERT???: NYT's TRISH BENDIX recaps how late night TV capitalized on Biden's classified document chaos this week.  WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: If you're going to read about the classified documents Biden failed to return to the government, the administration would prefer you select this recounting of his "final whirlwind days" as vice president by CNN's KEVIN LIPTAK, PHIL MATTINGLY, JEFF ZELENY and ARLETTE SAENZ. The piece, based on interviews with current and former officials, downplays the sensitive nature of the intelligence Biden had and offers something of an explanation: that "a serious effort to follow the law [was] made difficult by an unusually active final stretch." WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece from our CHRIS CADELAGO highlighting the political consequences of Biden's classified document storage. The Justice Department's announcement Thursday that a special counsel would be appointed "thrust a note of political danger into an otherwise good stretch for the White House," Cadelago writes. "[Biden] also found himself deprived, for the time being, of a clean-shot talking point against his arch nemesis former President Donald Trump — who is facing a separate special counsel investigation into his own handling of classified materials kept at his private club and home in Florida." HOLIDAY PLANS: The president is set to deliver remarks and join Rev. AL SHARPTON and the National Action Network at their Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Breakfast Monday, according to an announcement by the White House. THE BUREAUCRATS STILL CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF: The White House is doubling down its support for its nominee to lead the Federal Aviation Administration, PHIL WASHINGTON, even amid agency backlash after its computer system failure earlier this week, our TANYA SNYDER and ALEX DAUGHERTY report. Washington has also received a tepid response from congressional Democrats, but that's not stopping the Biden administration from standing by its pick. BEN HALLE, a spokesperson for Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, said "the secretary absolutely supports Phil [Washington] and there should be a hearing quickly." PERSONNEL MOVES: ERICA KNIEVEL SONGER is now counsel to the vice president and special assistant to the president. She most recently was senior counsel to the assistant attorney general of the civil rights division. Agenda Setting BACKTRACKING: The Department of Defense is considering giving back pay to those who were discharged from the military for refusing to get the Covid-19 vaccine, a requirement that has now been rescinded, our LARA SELIGMAN reports. The repeal of the vaccine mandate officially went into effect this Tuesday, following passage of the defense policy bill that required the department to do so. Providing back pay to former service members would be a win for Republicans who fought against the vaccine mandate for troops. What We're Reading The cases for and against Trump (Kellyanne Conway for the NYT) As Biden courts swing voters, Republicans play to their base (LAT's David Lauter) The Oppo Book U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator SAMANTHA POWER likes to joke about what it took to meet her husband, legal scholar CASS SUNSTEIN. The two met while working on the 2008 Obama campaign. And prior to working on that campaign, Power worked as a war correspondent. "I joke that I spent 38 years scouring the globe, going to war zones, trying to find the person with my exact birthday," she told Glamour back in 2014. "Yeah, I found the same-birthday guy." We're not sure if that's a blessing or a curse, Samantha. POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER "THEODORE ROOSEVELT was known to be a voracious reader, reading on average a book a day even while president," according to the Theodore Roosevelt Center at Dickinson State University. "He usually read several books at a time, rotating between them depending on his activities and/or his mood. Roosevelt read widely in genres ranging from classic and contemporary fiction & poetry to ancient philosophy, military histories and natural history studies. He read in many different languages, including German, French, Italian and Latin." A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   Follow us on Twitter Eli Stokols @EliStokols Lauren Egan @Lauren_V_Egan Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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