SPOILING FOR A FLOOR FIGHT — Unless he can strike a deal in the next few hours, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy is unlikely to be elected speaker on the first ballot when the 118th Congress convenes this afternoon. What comes next is anyone's guess. Assuming full attendance at the vote, McCarthy can stand to lose no more than four Republican votes in his bid for the gavel. We're hearing that GOP votes against McCarthy on the first ballot could hit a dozen or more – but of course, that's fluid. The last time it took more than one ballot to elect a speaker at the start of a new Congress was literally a century ago, so there's little in the way of recent precedent for this type of floor fight. Historically there has not been an appetite for long floor battles with voting dragging into the night. But McCarthy supporters say they expect him to keep Republicans on the floor. He hopes to avoid off-the-floor strategizing or closed-door brokering and simply keep the heat on his opponents with active roll call votes. There isn't a clear way to pause proceedings before the House adopts its rules for the new Congress. There's no "recess subject to the call of the chair," just adjournment to the next day. And even that would take a majority that could be hard to muster. A second ballot could bring even more surprises. While Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) has come out as a figurehead of opposition to McCarthy, there is speculation that other names could emerge as challengers as a second round of votes gets underway. Until then, members planning that move are staying mum on exactly who they are looking at. "You'll see that name tomorrow on the second ballot," Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), one of McCarthy's detractors, teased during a Fox News interview on Monday. Another dynamic to watch is if McCarthy falling on the first ballot knocks quiet fence sitters into the opposition camp. It is possible that some Republicans could opt for an alternative on further ballots after seeing a weak showing by McCarthy out of the gate. MOTION TO NEGOTIATE – McCarthy signaled over the weekend that he'd acquiesce to demands from his opponents to lower the barrier for rank-and-file members to try and oust the speaker, allowing five members of the House majority to force a no-confidence vote. But despite that capitulation the five committed votes against McCarthy – Reps. Biggs, Good, Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) – have not budged. McCarthy will meet with the House GOP conference this morning before the first session of the 118th Congress, and the speaker vote kicks off. He is expected to make his final pitch to colleagues. Wake up from the fantasy: There's been a lot of talk of a potential "consensus" candidate that could unite moderate Republicans and Democrats or that Democrats could sit out the speaker vote to lower the threshold of GOP votes McCarthy would need. Incoming Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told our friends at Playbook yesterday Dems won't deliver any favors for McCarthy. Democratic Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) issued a whip notice Monday urging her members to show up and vote for Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Any Democrats who deign to vote for any GOP candidate, McCarthy or not, would be bucking the new House Democratic leadership. END GAME — Clinching the gavel or setting the threshold for the motion to vacate are certainly tests for McCarthy. But the more consequential challenge will come when it is time for the new and narrow GOP majority to actually legislate. If the speaker cannot marshal Republican votes to enact policy, he'll be forced to look to Democrats (which the most recent GOP speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner also had to do.) Read up before it all goes down: McCarthy heads to grueling speaker vote with fate in limbo, from Olivia and Jordain, New Congress to convene, but will McCarthy be House speaker? From Lisa Mascaro at The Associated Press, McCarthy faces make-or-break moment in vote to elect House speaker from Clare Foran, Melanie Zanona, Kristin Wilson and Annie Grayer at CNN, With Speaker Vote One Day Away, McCarthy Struggles To Corral Holdouts from Michael Ginsberg and Henry Rodgers at The Daily Caller And a refresher on some procedural basics for today's session. From members: If McCarthy's Speaker Bid Fails, Democrats Might Have To Be Part Of The Process, from Rep. Don Bacon in The Daily Caller, Column: Kevin McCarthy is the wrong choice for House speaker from Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) in the Richmond Times-Dispatch
GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, January 3, where the 118th Congress will kick off this afternoon with no shortage of drama.
SPLIT SCREEN ACROSS THE CAPITOL — When the Senate convenes today, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will break the record for the longest-serving Senate leader. McConnell plans to commemorate past Senate leaders in a floor speech today, including the late Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield of Montana, the man whose record McConnell will beat. (Mansfield was Senate Majority Leader for 16 years. McConnell became the longest-serving Senate GOP leader in June 2018.) "There've been leaders who rose to the job through lower-key, behind-the-scenes styles; who preferred to focus on serving their colleagues rather than dominating them," McConnell plans to say. "And that…is how Senator Michael Joseph Mansfield of Montana became the longest-serving Senate leader in American history until this morning."
PRO TEM PATTY — The Senate will adopt a resolution today naming Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) as president pro tempore of the Senate. Murray is the second-longest serving Democrat in the senate after Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who declined the pro tem role. Murray will be third in the line of succession to the presidency. HELLO, GOODBYE — After the Senate speeds through its housekeeping business today, including swearing in new members and those reelected and some basic resolutions, the Senate will go back out on recess until Jan. 23. ETHICS WATCHDOG CHAINED UP — The House Rules package, released over the weekend, includes a provision that would oust most of the Democratic-appointed board members of the Office of Congressional Ethics by instituting term limits and making the hiring of staff at OCE much more difficult. The move comes almost exactly six years after the House GOP scrapped a plan to neuter the independent Ethics office, which Republicans abandoned when newly elected President Donald Trump weighed in against dismantling the OCE under his "drain the swamp" mantra. The Office of Congressional Ethics was established in 2008 under House Democrats, in response to the wave of lobbying scandals including Jack Abramoff, the former lobbyist who went to prison on corruption charges. The OCE has made lawmakers in both parties squirm with its mandate to publicly release its reports and referrals to the House Ethics Committee. The rules package also includes a mandate for the House Ethics Committee to create a process to receive complaints directly from the public, a role that has been dominated by OCE since its inception. SANTOS SAGA (CONTINUED) — Now that Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) is in the spotlight, Brazilian law enforcement plan to bring fraud charges from 2008 against him, the New York Times reported Monday. The case was put on hold when he left Brazil and police were not able to locate him. FWIW… Anyone who was calling for Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) to "resign" this weekend for his fabricated background story was missing the boat. He won't be sworn in until later today (or after this Speaker fight is sorted out) so he's had nothing to resign. But, as Kyle noted last night, Santos might want to look at some precedent as he plots his path forward. GRAND REOPENING! UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT — The Capitol and House and Senate office buildings reopen fully to the public this afternoon. Both the pandemic and Jan. 2021 insurrection drove tight restrictions on unescorted visitors. Lobbyists, tourists and visitors will no longer need an escort to enter the office buildings, but will still need an escort in the Capitol (which was the case before the pandemic and attack on the Capitol.) "The decision to fully reopen has been made in coordination with Congressional Leadership, the Capitol Police Board, the Attending Physician, the U.S. Capitol Police, and Visitor Services," read a memo from the House Sergeant at Arms. House Republicans criticized Democratic leaders for continuing to restrict public access to the Capitol complex and House Republicans are claiming this as an early victory. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger sought to reassure the Capitol community about progress on security ahead of the reopening and the anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. "With the polarized state of our nation, an attack like the one our Department endured on January 6, 2021, could be attempted again. Should the unthinkable happen, we will be ready," Manger said in a statement Monday. Reality check: Many junior staff have never worked on the Hill while it is open to the public. (Brace yourselves.) Looking ahead: Starting this weekend, staff will be permitted to lead Saturday tours. The Capitol Visitors Center will reopen for Saturday access on March 4, 2023.
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