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Poilievre’s grande séduction

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Jan 20, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Maura Forrest and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Maura Forrest, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we ask what PIERRE POILIEVRE needs to do to win over Quebecers. Also, we take a look at Notley vs. Singh on the "just transition." And despite their best intentions, public servants are back at Ottawa's food courts.

DRIVING THE DAY

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at an adult education centre in Montreal on Jan. 16.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in Quebec | Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press

LA GRANDE SÉDUCTION — PIERRE POILIEVRE was in Quebec this week, and according to the latest narrative, he's not trying to appeal to Quebecers with a bespoke set of promises.

"Quebecers have the same preoccupations as other Canadians," the Conservative leader said in an interview with Radio-Canada on Monday.

— Fair enough, perhaps. If ERIN O'TOOLE's strategy of pandering to Quebecers didn't exactly pan out, it may be reasonable to try the inverse strategy of … not pandering. After all, the Conservatives don't have that much to lose in la belle province. They've been stuck with between nine and 12 of Quebec's 78 seats since 2015.

Then again, it wouldn't be quite accurate to say Poilievre is treating Quebec exactly as he treats the rest of Canada. For instance, there was that interview with Radio-Canada. And this other one. And this one with Le Journal de Québec. And a press conference on Monday. And this other one on Thursday. But we digress.

— The big question: If consistency is Poilievre's strategy to win the hearts and minds of Quebecers, will it work? Playbook spoke with a few folks about what the Conservative leader needs to do to increase the party's seat count in Quebec. Here are some of their tips.

Be realistic: Poilievre should focus on "keeping the nine seats he has and building a potential for winning six more," said YAN PLANTE, vice president at public relations agency TACT and a former Harper adviser. "If he wins 15 seats in Quebec next time, it will have to be considered a homerun."

O'Toole over-promised and under-delivered in Quebec, said RUDY HUSNY, a political analyst and former adviser in the Harper government. "If we can [gain] one or two or maybe three [seats], that would be good," he said.

Don't offer the moon: Poilievre doesn't need to accept "every single request for new powers coming from the government of Quebec like Mr. O'Toole seemed to do," Plante said. "At some point, too much is like not enough and one loses authenticity."

"You don't need to say 'yes' to [Quebec Premier] FRANÇOIS LEGAULT on everything," Husny said. "He doesn't need to outbid the Bloc on nationalistic views, because the Bloc is already doing it."

Be a human: "Quebecers vote with their hearts, not only with their heads," Husny said. "He needs to show a human side." To that end, Husny said Poilievre's wife, ANAIDA, whose family immigrated from Venezuela to Montreal, is a "special weapon."

Say it, don't mean it: When it comes to signaling that he won't pander to Quebecers, "I think it's what he should be saying, but it's really hard to do," said 338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER.

"Quebec is ripe for a conservative party," Fournier said, but not for Poilievre's brand of populist conservatism. If he doesn't soften his image in that province, Fournier believes some of the Conservatives' existing Quebec seats could be at risk.

"Poilievre does have a steep hill to climb, because the people who do know him in Quebec mostly don't like him," Fournier said.

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For your radar


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh | The Canadian Press


BIG HAPPY FAMILY — The so-called "just transition" is looking to be a major issue in this year's Alberta election, and that could make things just a wee bit awkward between the federal NDP and their provincial counterparts.

Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH has come out swinging against the forthcoming federal legislation, which was one of the conditions of the confidence-and-supply agreement between the Liberals and the NDP. She claims the bill is a plan to phase out the oil and gas industry, and she's doing her level best to lump NDP opposition leader RACHEL NOTLEY in with Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and federal NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.

Notley, under pressure, this week said the government needs to put the brakes on the legislation. "Just take it … and basically get rid of it," she has said.

— In Ottawa, New Democrats are quick to say there's nothing to see here. "I think that Rachel Notley is someone who understands the condition and the plight of workers in Alberta very well," NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH said Thursday. "And if she's raising concerns about the way [the bill] is being framed… then we have to listen to those concerns."

But he also said the government needs a plan so that workers "don't fall behind" in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Singh said he hasn't spoken with Notley about the issue in recent days.

NDP MP CHARLIE ANGUS, who is working on the legislation with the Liberals, suggested the whole affair was driven by political expediency. "I don't think Rachel Notley's comments were aimed at us in any way," he told Playbook. "I think her issue is she's got to deal with Danielle Smith, who just makes crazy-ass stuff up. … It's play for keeps in Alberta politics. It's a blood sport."

— Still: This isn't the first time recently that Notley has taken aim at the federal party's policies. On Friday, she said the federal Liberal and NDP emissions targets are both "wrong."

But MÉLANIE RICHER, a senior consultant at Earnscliffe and Singh's erstwhile director of communications, told Playbook there's no major conflict between Singh and Notley. "I think that they've been able to work together on stuff that they agree on and disagree on other stuff, and that's OK."

— Related reading: The "just transition" strategy "is turning into the 2023 dispute that won't quit," KELLY CRYDERMAN writes for the Globe and Mail.

And for the Toronto Star, GRAHAM THOMSON claims that Smith has "outmaneuvered" Trudeau and Notley.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in "private meetings."

— Defense Minister ANITA ANAND and Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE will attend a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, hosted by U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

9:30 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will be at the Canadian Space Agency in Longueuil, Que. to make an announcement about commercial space launches.

10 a.m. Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and government health officials will provide an update on Covid-19.

12:30 p.m. (9:30 a.m. PST) Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER will make an announcement in Vancouver on the Gottfriedson Band class settlement.

— Also: If you happen to be at the West Edmonton Mall on Saturday or Sunday, you can swap your spare toonies for the Royal Canadian Mint's special circulation coins, featuring a black outer ring to honor the late QUEEN ELIZABETH II.

Talk of the town

BUREAUCRATIC BACCHANALIA — The return-to-school vibes were real at downtown Ottawa's smattering of food courts. They had what office-bound public servants desperately needed: takeaway lunch that many vowed to never buy again in the wake of a fiery Reddit saga known as "Subwaygate." (The background on that episode is here.)

Many bureaucrats were ordered back to non-remote workspaces this week for at least a couple of days. Would they pack lunches? Or would they patronize the sub shops and burger joints that former mayor JIM WATSON worried would go under after three years of mostly crickets when the clock struck noon?

Playbook toured the cafeterias on Thursday in search of answers.

— Party spot: Queen Street Fare is Ottawa's hottest club since a hot tub and bouncy castle amused Wellington Street occupiers almost a year ago (h/t MACK GRAY).

At 12:35 p.m., Fiazza's pizza and Green Rebel's healthy eats were neck-and-neck for longest lines, consistently at about a dozen. The shortest belonged to Bar Robo, the cafe known for a must-eat BBQ chicken sandwich.

The party spilled into the Sun Life building's atrium, where open tables were few and far between (the count stood at exactly zero when Playbook strolled past).

— Next up, the C.D. Howe Building: How desperate were hungry ISED workers and Auditor General auditors for food fuel? Three Brewers Pub was packed to the hilt. The food court below, not so much. The ever-existing Marcello's anchoring the basement's eastern wall hosted a grand total of two customers at 12:42 p.m.

— Place de Ville, Tower C: Not nearly as buzzy as QSF, but less staid than nearby C.D. Howe, Transport Canada's HQ offered the best combo of comfortable seating in a spacious court. And the labyrinthine passageways to towers A and B accommodated auxiliary tables.

— #MaskUp: Masks weren't a thing at QSF. They were sparingly worn at CDH. PDVTC's health-conscious employees were by far the most diligently KN95'd.

— Subway count: The lineup for subs at Place de Ville stood at four at 12:46, and a different set of three about six minutes later on Playbook's return pass.

Sadly, the C.D. Howe location didn't survive the pandemic. That space is up for lease.

OPEN OR CLOSED — Wellington Street might soon be open again. Or it might not.

If you followed the House of Commons committee studying the future of the parliamentary precinct after last year's "Freedom Convoy" protest, you may have had the impression that the permanent closure of the street running in front of Parliament Hill was a fait accompli.

— Not so, it seems: On Thursday, Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE told CBC News he'd like to see the street reopened — at least for now — "unless there's a really good reason for it to be closed." A municipal committee is expected to vote next week on reopening Wellington, which has been temporarily blocked off to vehicles since last February.

Sutcliffe's comments prompted a tweet thread from Ottawa Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI, arguing the Wellington Street closure is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reimagine this iconic and nationally important space."

For now, the less-than-iconic concrete barriers blocking off the street could be enhanced with "benches, food stands, and amenities," he said. Any temporary reopening "would seriously affect this objective."

— The background: Last month, a parliamentary committee recommended that Wellington Street be permanently closed to vehicles, and that security for the street be transferred from the city to federal jurisdiction. But that's a long-term proposal, and in the meantime, Sutcliffe told CBC News, "we have a decision to make."

— Elsewhere in Ottawa street-related news: Nearly 20 months after Ottawa city councilors called for the Sir John A. Macdonald Parkway to be renamed, the National Capital Commission had a big announcement to make on Thursday.

A new name, perhaps? Haha, nope. Don't be silly. But there will be a new name, the NCC promised. All in good time! Maybe later this year. It doesn't do to rush these things, you see.

— By the way: If you don't live in Ottawa and are uninterested in the minutiae of where public servants eat lunch and whether a particular street is open or closed… we apologize. It's Ottawa. This is about as exciting as things get.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


Who's up: AMARSLEET SNOWHI. Enough said.

Who's down: DOMINIC BARTON, who's no doubt looking forward to being invited by a parliamentary committee to answer questions about the company he used to run.

MEDIA ROOM


— Top of POLITICO: Supreme Court could not identify who shared draft abortion opinion.

— In an interview with the Toronto Star's SUSAN DELACOURT, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU made clear "he had no intention of wading into a fight" with Ontario Premier DOUG FORD over his moves toward for-profit medical care.

— This week's new guidance on alcohol consumption is "entirely in line with a long tradition of nebbish, joyless public-health officials telling normies what fun we ought not to be having," JEN GERSON writes for the Line.

— "Make no mistake: Justin Trudeau has disappointed us and will surely disappoint us again. We just don't quite know yet how or why," CURTIS GILLESPIE writes in the Literary Review of Canada in an essay on liberalism under siege.

— Russia has spurred NATO countries to feed their war chests. But they're still hesitant to set a higher spending target for the military alliance, POLITICO's LILI BAYER writes. 

— Immigration reporter NICHOLAS KEUNG joined the Star's This Matters pod to discuss the challenges skilled immigrants face in Canada.

— LAURA RYCKEWAERT of The Hill Times surveys the landscape of podcasts featuring senators or MPs.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Tick, tock: Budget o'clock?

In other news for Pro readers:

— Tai touts benefits of less-efficient global trading system.

— U.S., allies ramp up pressure on Germany to send tanks to Ukraine.

— China turns on the charm.

— 'You're hurting my country': Manchin faces Europe's wrath.

— Yellen says U.S. has hit debt limit, triggering 'extraordinary measures.'

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to ANDREA BAILLIE, editor-in-chief of The Canadian Press.

Celebrating Saturday: ROBERT GHIZ, president and CEO of the Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association, and former Senator NICOLE EATON.

Celebrating Sunday: Conservative MP ERIN O'TOOLE will be 50. Liberal MP KEVIN LAMOUREUX, former NDP MP ANDREW CASH and retired Senator JIM COWAN will also be blowing out candles.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: LOUISE BLAIS, longing for JACINDA ARDERN to become the next U.N. secretary-general … VADYM PRYSTAIKO, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.K., at a Black Sea Grain Initiative reception hosted inside Canada's High Commission in London … Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, too.

MARC GARNEAU, "excited" about today's space announcement … Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND, returning to his Pickering high school … LARRY MAGUIRE, in the geology labs at Brandon University … Windsor Mayor DREW DILKENS, giving Ontario Premier DOUG FORD a key to the city.

U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN and author BUZZ BISSINGER, with seniors and veterans of Perley Health.

In Davos: Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND reunites with IMF Managing Director KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA and European Central Bank President CHRISTINE LAGARDE … and gets a pic with Sen. JOE MANCHIN, Sen. CHRIS COONS, Rep. SETH MOULTON, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS and Rep. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR … International Trade Minister MARY NG, with World Trade Organization Director-General NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA and U.K. Secretary for International Trade KEMI BADENOCH.

THOMAS D'AQUINO, holding his book for the first time … LISA KIRBIE, on the beach … NAVDEEP BAINS, celebrating a 25-year-old handshake.

Movers and shakers: EDDY PÉREZ is starting a new role as senior international affairs adviser to Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT.

CATHERINE MCKENNEY and NEIL SARAVANAMUTTOO have launched CitySHAPES, a national non-profit aiming to "build better cities across Canada."

PRESTON MANNING will chair the committee tasked with reviewing Alberta's Covid-19 response, per the Globe and Mail's CARRIE TAIT.

CHRISTINE MYATT, who previously worked in JASON KENNEY's office, is joining New West Public Affairs as a senior consultant … CAROLINE BROUILLETTE is the new acting executive director of the Climate Action Network.

Media mentions: The Calgary Herald building has been sold to U-Haul Co. for C$17.25 million, Postmedia says.

Farewells: Some "media and court folks" will gather today in Edmonton to say goodbye to reporter JANICE JOHNSTON. A celebration of life will take place on Jan. 27.

On the Hill


— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

The House of Commons resumes Jan. 30; the Senate returns Jan. 31.

TRIVIA


Thursday's answer: FRANK MCKENNA and the Liberalswon every seat in New Brunswick's 1987 election.

Props to MATTHEW TRAPP, GUY SKIPWORTH, DG STRINGER, LAURA JARVIS, GREG MACEACHERN, KATELIN CUMMINGS, BRIAN KLUNDER, JANE DOULL, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JONATHAN KALLES, DAN MCCARTHY, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, RYAN HAMILTON, TIM MCCALLUM, JONATHAN INGRAHAM, JOANNA PLATER, RAY PENNINGS, JOE MACDONALD, JASON DEVEAU, JOHN ECKER, SAM MACPHAIL, JOHN DILLON and DOUG RICE. 

Today's question: What former MP and Cabinet minister said: "I like to help the ordinary people. That's my claim to fame — being ordinary. I help the hungry, abused women, young children, those with disabilities and those who are ignored. They are the forgotten people and I'm a people's person who hasn't forgotten where I've come from."

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn't happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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