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Aid finally flows to Syria (we hope)

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Feb 15, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Suzanne Lynch

Happy Wednesday! I’m Suzanne Lynch, POLITICO’s chief Brussels correspondent, bringing you today’s edition of Global Insider from Brussels.

First, this morning’s breaking news. In a shock announcement, Nicola Sturgeon has said she is resigning as first minister of Scotland. Comparisons with outgoing New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern are rife, after Sturgeon spoke of the brutality of politics and her hopes for a “different way of living life” in her resignation speech. While Sturgeon had been battling domestic tensions, not least over her handling of controversial transgender legislation, it is her association with the Scottish independence movement that will define her legacy. Already, there are question marks over what her departure means for her promised second referendum on Scottish independence.

Also in today’s Global Insider, I’ll bring you up to date on what’s been happening at NATO headquarters, where defense ministers just wrapped up a two-day? meeting; plus the latest on Brexit. But first why the Swiss are on the naughty step …

EARTHQUAKE LATEST

SYRIA UPDATE

AT LAST: Aid has finally begun flowing into devastated northern Syria after President Bashar al-Assad agreed to open two crossing points with Turkey following last week’s earthquakes. Previously, the U.N. could only send help through one checkpoint thanks to Russia and China, which have used their veto power on the Security Council in recent years to chip away at the number of crossings in operation.

REAL-TIME DIPLOMACY: The deal was announced by the U.N.’s humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths on Monday, following his discussions with Assad earlier in the day.

SWISS CONCERNS: Before the breakthrough, there was some frustration at U.N. headquarters directed toward Switzerland. Along with Brazil, Switzerland is coordinating the file. But at least two U.N. delegations expressed frustration that Bern was too reticent in pushing for Syria (and its backer Russia) to green-light more crossings.

NOT TRUE: The Swiss and other diplomats Global Insider spoke to denied this, pointing out that the job of those on the humanitarian file is securing consensus. But the row is a reminder of the deadly hold Russia has over the U.N.’s policy on Syria.

REALITY CHECK: The full impact of Monday’s breakthrough is yet to be seen. Under the agreement, the crossing points at Bab Al-Salam and Al Raée will be open for an initial period of three months. U.N. officials told POLITICO that aid “is flowing” and a convoy of 17 trucks crossed over into Syria on Tuesday. But given Assad’s track record when it comes to the treatment of his own people, officials say the possibility of another Security Council resolution remains on the table.

MORE AMMO PLEASE

NATO REDUX: NATO defense ministers have just wrapped up two days of talks in Brussels with the war in Ukraine dominating discussion (though the meeting did begin with a minute’s silence to honor the victims of last week’s earthquakes).
 
MORE OF THE SAME: The two-day gathering was not about any radical shift in strategy — NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said the debate about whether to send Kyiv fighter jets was on the agenda “but not the most urgent issue.” Similarly, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said today that he doesn’t envisage London sending fighter jets in the next few “years.” Instead this week’s gathering was about ensuring that countries deliver on promises already made, Stoltenberg said.

AMMUNITION TIMES: Top of the list was ammunition. Ukraine is running through thousands of shells each day and Western allies are struggling to keep up. As Paul McLeary points out, part of the U.S. strategy is to help Ukrainians tweak the way they fight so they can rely less on artillery barrages. But U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also said in Brussels that Washington was working on giving Ukraine “as much ammunition as quickly as possible.”

GERMANY FIGHTS BACK: After taking its fair share of blame over its dithering on sending tanks, Germany has turned the tables, pointing out that allies who pressured Berlin have failed to come up with the goods themselves. Hans von der Burchard has the story.

WE’LL ALWAYS HAVE PARIS? Meanwhile, France’s contribution to the war effort has been tepid, at best, writes Nicholas Vinocur.

ON THE SIDELINES: But, as always, some of the biggest news out of NATO was not so much the decisions or lack of — it’s what was said on the sidelines. In particular, officials sounded the alarm about a new offensive by Russia — including signs of mass mobilization and “prepositioning of air assets” along the Ukrainian border. More from Lili Bayer.

WATCH THOSE PHONES: As the great and the good of the national security and defense world head to Bavaria for the Munich Security Conference later this week, organizers were left red-faced after POLITICO revealed that the venue will be surrounded by Chinese telecoms equipment produced by Huawei. Oops!

BREXIT’S BACK

NORTHERN IRELAND RUMBLINGS: It may be three years since Britain officially left the European Union, but there’s plenty of unfinished business between London and Brussels. The main sticking point is the Northern Ireland protocol — the part of the Brexit deal that governs the status of Northern Ireland. But there are finally signs that a deal could be in reach.

Quick recap: Under a compromise solution negotiated by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Northern Ireland remains within the European Union’s single market for goods. But this has infuriated the unionist community in Northern Ireland, who believe it undermines their links with Great Britain. The unionists have boycotted the Northern Ireland Assembly since elections in May, leaving the region without a sitting government.

Keeping it under wraps: The Brussels and Westminster bubbles have been awash with rumors that a breakthrough is in the works. In a positive sign, the EU has accepted a “green lane” and “red lane” system for goods arriving into Northern Ireland from mainland Britain, which accepts the principle that goods that stay in Northern Ireland be treated differently than those continuing across the invisible border into the Republic of Ireland, and hence the EU.

Presidential trip in the offing? Speculation is rife that President Joe Biden could visit Belfast, Dublin and London soon: April marks the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, the landmark peace deal that brought the Troubles (as the Northern Ireland conflict was known) to an end. A Biden trip could encourage the U.K. and the EU to finally get a deal over the line.

I SPOKE TO CONGRESSMAN BILL KEATING, a Democrat from Massachusetts who sits on the House committee on foreign affairs, on why Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations matter in Washington.

“We’ve a self-interest here, in that the United States played a crucial role in the signing of the Good Friday Agreement. It remains a priority,” he said. “It is important to have a vibrant U.K., a vibrant Ireland and that Northern Ireland continues to thrive.”

On Biden’s previous warnings that the U.S. will not do a trade deal with the U.K. if the Good Friday Agreement is threatened: “Yes, it absolutely is the case,” he said, but added: “This is not supposed to be threatening. The United States takes stability in Northern Ireland seriously. It’s also a question of pragmatism. We see a trade deal with the U.K. happening in parallel with an EU agreement.”

On Northern Ireland’s political paralysis: Keating led a U.S. delegation to Northern Ireland in November. He says he is concerned about the absence of political governance in Belfast as the row over Brexit continues. But he’s hopeful that a breakthrough could be in sight. “The customs agreement on the access of goods into Northern Ireland is a positive sign. Let’s hope it’s a signal of a broader deal to come.”

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

MOLDOVA COUP: The former Soviet state, which sits perilously close to Ukraine on its southern border, said on Monday that Russia had attempted to stage a coup in the country. It follows President Zelenskyy’s claim in Brussels last week that Ukraine had intercepted Russian plans to “destroy” Moldova, which Moldovan intelligence services later confirmed.

In a reminder of the tensions that persist in the region, air space over Moldova was closed for two hours on Tuesday. A few days earlier, the pro-Western government fell, though President Maia Sandu swiftly appointed another pro-EU ally as prime minister. All in a few days’ work.

WEST BANK TENSIONS: The U.S. teamed up with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, the U.K. and Italy to denounce Israeli plans for thousands of new settlements in the West Bank and plans to retroactively legalize nine outposts that were previously deemed illegal under Israeli law.

“We strongly oppose these unilateral actions which will only serve to exacerbate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution,” the group said in a statement Tuesday.

GLOBETROTTERS

MOVES

— Seth Berkley will step down as CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in August, replaced by Muhammad Ali Pate.

—Mike Sfraga has been nominated to be U.S. ambassador at large for Arctic affairs.

— Other ambassador nominations include Robin Dunnigan (Georgia), Heather Catherine Variava (Lao People’s Democratic Republic) and Lisa A. Johnson (Lebanon).

Thanks to editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner.

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