EU-UKRAINE SUMMIT THIS FRIDAY: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will head to Kyiv this Thursday for the next EU-Ukraine summit happening Friday. The meeting will be "extremely important" for Kyiv's bid to join the European Union, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Tuesday, adding that "the fact that this summit will be held in Kyiv is a powerful signal to both partners and enemies." However, no one else thinks Kyiv’s aim to join the EU in two years is realistic. ONE FOR ALL AND ALL FOR ONE? Last week’s breakthrough on sending Western-made battle tanks to Ukraine sparked hopes in both Washington and Europe that the tortured transatlantic debate over arming the country had been resolved once and for all. If only. Just hours after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cleared the way for the export of German-made tanks to the country, the focus shifted to the who, what, where and when of supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. Once again, Scholz was the first to slam on the brakes, repeatedly warning in recent days of the dangers of “escalation,” while insisting that NATO would not become directly involved in the conflict. If you feel like you’ve seen this movie before, join the club. There is a new wrinkle though. It turns out that an even bigger fear for Scholz than escalation is that NATO, and in particular the U.S., wouldn’t get involved if Russia were to retaliate against, say Germany. That worry — according to an adviser to the German government — is the reason that Scholz insisted that Washington agree to supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks before the chancellor would lift his veto on delivering German-made Leopard 2 tanks. What’s an article worth? While the NATO treaty’s Article 5 calls on alliance members to support one another in the event of an attack, it doesn’t require allies to respond with military force. “If the U.S. is involved directly it’s more likely to use military force to defend its allies in Europe,” Carlo Masala, a German military expert with strong ties to the country’s political establishment, said this week on German public television. “That’s a very strong rationale for Scholz and why he insists that the U.S. is involved.” In other words, Scholz doesn’t trust the U.S. Given that Washington has about 40,000 troops in Germany and has already committed roughly $30 billion in military aid to Ukraine (more than 10 times the German total), one might reasonably question the logic underlying Scholz’s argument. TANK BATTLES: No one is better versed in the politics of Germany’s weapons than Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Andrij Melnyk. Melnyk, who was Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin until last year, became a household name in Germany by nudging, cajoling and, at times, loudly demanding that Berlin send weapons. Initially dismissed by Germany’s many Russophile intellectuals and anti-war elements on both the right and left as “undiplomatic,” Melnyk’s was ultimately vindicated. We caught up with him on Tuesday by phone in Kyiv, where he returned in October. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. After nearly a year of trying to convince the Germans to send tanks, how did it feel when Berlin finally relented and how did you celebrate? There was relief and happiness that we finally overcame the hurdles of the past months. It was a difficult birth. We indulged ourselves with a few beers after not really drinking since the war began. Within a few hours of the tank announcement, you came out calling on the Western allies to take a further step and commit to sending fighter jets. You’ve also pushed for submarines and warships. Why the rush? A lot of people still don’t understand that the war is far from over. In fact, Putin appears to have even more of an appetite than ever. Without air support, you can’t fight a modern war. We need more planes both to help liberate our territory and to mount a counteroffensive. We need everything that our partners can deliver. We’re not doing this for amusement. Don’t you worry though that you could spark resistance in the West with the repeated demands? It’s worth starting the debate even if you know that you’re not going to achieve your goals tomorrow and you end up being subjected to mockery and ridicule. In Germany, I learned that it was helpful to take people out of their comfort zone. Much of the population had no idea what weapons system the army even had in its arsenal. We helped to educate them. Many in the West worry that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he’ll keep pushing farther west. As someone much closer to the front lines, what do you most worry about? Russia could try something big to mark the one-year anniversary of the invasion. I worry that they might launch a new offensive from Belarus. I don’t think the Russians are going to give up. Putin is not an enemy one should underestimate.
| 
Comments
Post a Comment