| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Jonathan Lemire, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
President Joe Biden delivers a speech marking the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Feb. 21, at the Royal Castle Gardens in Warsaw. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | With help from Phelim Kine, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt WARSAW — President JOE BIDEN had a message for the West as the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine neared: Please don’t get tired of so much winning. Having shocked the world by standing in sunny Kyiv Monday — just a day before — Biden in Warsaw was steeled for a fight he intends to see through while in the Oval Office. He may not be commanding troops in Ukraine’s battle for survival against Russia, but he is acting like democracy’s civilian general, commanding an alliance strung together by geography, fear and necessity, as Alex (in Warsaw) and Jonathan report. “NATO is more united and more unified than ever before,” Biden said. “The democracies of the world have grown stronger, not weaker. The autocrats of the world have grown weaker, not stronger,” Biden said to the crowd. The feeling behind those words reflected the long-held views of a devout transatlanticist, a man who was 3 years old when World War II ended. Biden grew up in an era of American military and economic domination bolstered by partners across the Atlantic. The mission to safeguard Europe from tyranny since the 1940s has expanded worldwide, leading the United States to defend the “rules-based international order” it created against those opposed to free markets and free societies. A fortification of that order is central to the president’s entire foreign policy. And the war in Ukraine for Biden is a test of whether the U.S. is, in some respects, the nation of yesteryear. Biden’s argument: democracy is the future, as long as allies stay the course. “When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested. The whole world faced a test for the ages,” Biden said. “Europe was being tested. America was being tested. NATO is being tested. All democracies are being tested. And the questions we face are as simple as they are profound: Would we respond, or would we look the other way?” “One year later, we know the answer: We did respond. We would be strong, we would be united, and the world would not look the other way.” To celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance, Biden also announced the United States will host the NATO summit next year. The crowd in the gardens of the Royal Palace complex hooted and hollered, clapping along to any references to “NATO” and “freedom.” They had been riled up as they waited with music from Earth, Wind and Fire, Bruce Springsteen and Twisted Sister blaring from loudspeakers. It felt like a NATO pep rally to NatSec Daily.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 3/1 TO DISCUSS AMERICAN PRIVACY LAWS: Americans have fewer privacy rights than Europeans, and companies continue to face a minefield of competing state and foreign legislation. There is strong bipartisan support for a federal privacy bill, but it has yet to materialize. Join POLITICO on 3/1 to discuss what it will take to get a federal privacy law on the books, potential designs for how this type of legislation could protect consumers and innovators, and more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | PUTIN SUSPENDS NUKE TREATY: Ahead of Biden’s speech, Putin announced that he was suspending Russia’s participation in the last nuclear-arms treaty between Washington and Moscow. The move is “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told reporters, as Matt and NAHAL TOOSI write. The U.S. will “be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does” and “remain ready to talk about strategic arms limitations at any time.” New START — which capped the number of deployed strategic missiles, limited the warheads on them and allowed for site inspections — was designed to avoid an arms race between the world’s two nuclear powers. Biden and Putin extended the accord for five years in February 2021, in part to show the two countries could coexist despite deep differences. With Russia running out of cards to play, Putin made the move seemingly in an effort to make the West think twice about delving deeper into the Ukraine war. The question is what, precisely, Putin means by a suspension of the treaty. If it means ending inspections of nuclear facilities, then it doesn’t really change the status quo. If he means that he’ll ramp up the number of deployed weapons and warheads, then that’s quite the escalation. How will this all impact the defense industry? Scroll down to the Complex section to find out. XI’S REHASH: Beijing issued a “concept paper” on Tuesday designed to flesh out the details of Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING’s signature Global Security Initiative, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The paper expands on the initiative, saying the GSI’s goal is to “eliminate the root causes of international conflicts, improve global security governance… to bring more stability and certainty to a volatile and changing era.” But the document offers no notable new initiatives designed to facilitate the GSI’s objectives. The document urges the establishment of “more international platforms and mechanisms for exchange and cooperation,” but if Beijing has plans that go beyond general statements of intent, it’s not sharing them quite yet. SURPRISE, SURPRISE: The president’s visit to Kyiv was “meticulously planned” over months by a small circle of officials at the White House and government agencies, Alex and ELI STOKOLS reported Monday. Numerous U.S. lawmakers and officials have visited Ukraine’s capital already, and Biden wanted to visit last year. It was simply “a matter of making it possible and making it work with logistical considerations and security concerns,” a U.S. official said. While complex to pull off, the trip is arguably the most symbolically important of Biden’s presidency, coming days before the one-year mark of the war and underscoring the West’s ongoing commitment to helping Ukraine. THE ENRICHER GET ENRICHER: Iran was accused of enriching uranium to levels just below nuclear-weapons grade, sparking international backlash and concerns over the country’s expanding program. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency are trying to figure out how Iran accumulated uranium enriched to 84 percent purity, the highest concentration ever found in the nation, Bloomberg News’ JONATHAN TIRONE reported Sunday. That’s just 6 percent below the concentration needed for a weapon. Iran had previously told the IAEA that it could only enrich uranium to a 60 percent level of purity. Inspectors haven’t found any indication that Iran is building a weapon, however. Tehran has long said that its atomic program is intended for peaceful purposes only, while the West and Israel have called BS. Iranian officials have denied that they intentionally enriched uranium so much, saying that uranium with a purity higher than 60 percent has been found by inspectors before, but it’s a natural part of the process and isn’t a big deal. “What matters is the final product, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has so far not tried to enrich over 60 percent,” BEHROUZ KAMALVANDI, the spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told state-linked media. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | BIDEN BACKLASH: As Biden doubled down on support for Kyiv over the weekend, GOP presidential contenders took the opportunity to bash the president and allies for allowing the war to go on with no end in sight. “Putin never, ever would have gone into Ukraine if I were president,” DONALD TRUMP told supporters at a Florida rally on Monday. “I actually had a very good relationship” with the Russian leader. Nearly a year into the war, NATO “still has no strategy for victory,” JOHN BOLTON, Trump’s former national security adviser, wrote in a tweet. “We are in a world war in #Ukraine, not directly with NATO forces, but with almost everything else on the line. We need a strategy that addresses NATO interests.” That sounds a lot like campaign-speak, although Bolton hasn’t formally announced his run. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who also hasn’t yet said he’ll pursue the presidency, strongly condemned Biden’s handling of the war while speaking on Fox & Friends on Monday. “The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that and steamrolling, you know, that has not even come close to happening,” DeSantis said, criticizing the Biden administration for enacting a “blank-check policy” for aid to Ukraine.
| | | GREAT SUCCESS: Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russian hackers has the Department of Homeland Security thinking big about cyber collaboration, our friends over at Weekly Cybersecurity report. Fresh off the plane from Munich, ROB SILVERS, a top DHS official, said Kyiv’s performance during the first year of the war demonstrated that investments in cyber resilience can pay big dividends — a proof-of-concept that is encouraging DHS to get more ambitious about working with other foreign partners, too. “Overall, Ukraine has been able to defend itself, its cybersecurity and its critical networks, much more effectively than I think even the optimists thought that it might,” Silvers told MC. “And our lesson taken away from that is we should be looking for opportunities to work with international partners much more intensively across the board.”
| | | ‘POSITIVE SENTIMENT’: Analysts believe Putin’s decision to suspend participation in the nuclear pact is likely a “positive sentiment” for the defense industry, our own LEE HUDSON writes in. “An open question is how the probable demise of New START shapes U.S. strategic weapons and missile defense programs in the 2020s, with [Northrop Grumman] and other U.S. primes possible beneficiaries,” BYRON CALLAN, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, wrote in a client note. Wall Street does not believe Russia will immediately expand its nuclear weapons and strategic forces inventories because the country updated its missiles, warheads and ballistic missile submarines in 2018. But the U.S. may decide to expand capacity of nuclear warhead facilities, increase production of the B-21 stealth bomber and the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, and buy additional submarine-launched ballistic missiles, according to Callan.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | CHRIS COONS GOES GLOBAL: Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) has gained a reputation among world leaders as being an ear to Biden (along with being OLAF SCHOLZ’s doppelganger), as Alex reported on Monday. Coons and Biden, who both hail from Delaware, have formed a relationship built on foreign policy as both men communicate frequently on issues, with Coons relaying the president’s opinions to colleagues abroad. The two men don’t agree on everything, as Coons feels the U.S. should send warplanes to Ukraine while Biden is against it. However, the Delaware senator has given world leaders a sense of the president’s mindset as the war approaches its first year — support Ukraine without compromising future U.S. military readiness. While Coons claims he’s currently focused on representing his state in Congress, his previous desire to serve as secretary of state may hint at what his future goal might be.
| | | GROWTH OF THE WAGNER GROUP: The growth of Russia’s Wagner Group has forced Western leaders to discuss ways to limit the paramilitary force’s expanding global footprint, our own ERIN BANCO, SARAH ANNE AARUP and ANASTASIIA CARRIER reported over the weekend. The group, led by YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, has strengthened Russia’s position on the battlefield in Ukraine and actively works to perform security functions for regimes in Sudan and the Central African Republic. While Prigozhin has emerged as a key player in Ukraine, he’s also admitted to interfering in foreign elections and funding Russian troll farms. Despite his group’s growing influence, Prigozhin’s rise in power has been met with concern by some Russian military officials. Reuters reports that Prigozhin has accused Moscow of starving Wagner troops on the battlefield. The Kremlin’s desire to potentially contain Prigozhin could continue to raise questions about whether the Wagner leader has goals of challenging Putin’s grasp on the Russian Federation.
| | | |   | | | | | | –– FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MERCEDES OSMA-PERALTA is now counselor for press and public affairs at the Colombian Embassy in Washington, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently held the same role for the Colombian Embassy in London. — ALEXANDRA FRANCIS is now policy adviser for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the Treasury Department. She most recently was a Robina Foundation fellow at the International Committee of the Red Cross. — BRADLEY McKINNEY joined the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue as vice president of strategic initiatives. He most recently was the founder and managing director of Imperative, helping companies navigate the global trade space. — ANNA BROOKS REED has joined the House Armed Services Committee Republicans as a press assistant. –– President Biden is NOT the new director of communications for the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
| | | — MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: The West Is Avoiding the Big Question About Ukraine — IAN SHAPIRA, The Washington Post: At VMI, two classmates — one Black, one White — war over school’s future — DAVID FRUM, The Atlantic: The Autocrat Next Door
| | | — National Defense Industrial Association, 8:30 a.m.: 25th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Conference — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Kremlin Information Operations Before and After Ukraine Invasion — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:15 a.m.: The Capital Cable #65: South Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Assessing US Military Assistance to Ukraine — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Theory of Success: A Conversation with Gen. CHANCE SALTZMAN — The Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: Marking One Year Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: Causes and Consequences of Russia’s Year of War in Ukraine — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Book Launch: Information in War - Military Innovation, Battle Networks, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence — The George Washington University School of International Affairs, 6 p.m.:Assessing the U.S. - Mexico Security Cooperation Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who thinks this newsletter is less united with us at the helm. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who would’ve picked a more modern playlist for Biden’s Poland speech.
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