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China’s ballooning headache in Europe

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Feb 08, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Stuart Lau

Ahoj and welcome to the second Global Insider dispatch from Team Europe. This is Stuart Lau, EU-China correspondent, coming to you from the Czech Republic. I sat down with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský to see why his country is fast becoming Taiwan’s bestie — and China’s big headache.

But first — the speech: We’ll bring you all you need to know about what leaders in Moscow, Kyiv, Beijing, Brussels and elsewhere took away from what Ryan Heath called the “State of the Ballounion” speech.

 

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SOTU AS SEEN FROM ELSEWHERE

CHINA

THE SPY BALLOON SAGA remains the talk of town in D.C., and while U.S. President Joe Biden steered clear of the word itself, he did refer to the incident. “Make no mistake: As we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did.” He added: “I’ve made clear with President Xi that we seek competition, not conflict.”

HIDDEN MESSAGE ON TAIWAN: There’s also little doubt which self-ruling democratic island he was talking about, when he mentioned “modernizing our military to safeguard stability and deter aggression.”

BUT BUT BUT: While diplomatic relations are at a low point, trade between the world’s two leading economies just hit an all-time high of $690 billion in 2022. Doug Palmer has more.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

SOMETHING’S MISSING: Biden didn’t use the words “Russia” or “Moscow” at all during his speech. “Putin” became his go-to alternative.

“I spoke from this chamber one year ago, just days after Vladimir Putin unleashed his brutal war against Ukraine,” Biden said. “A murderous assault, evoking images of the death and destruction Europe suffered in World War II.”

HE LEADS: “Together, we did what America always does at our best. We led,” Biden told those gathering in Congress, including the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington. “We united NATO and built a global coalition. We stood against Putin’s aggression. We stood with the Ukrainian people.”

EUROPE

BIG TECH REASSURANCE: Before his speech, EU officials hoped to see Biden send a strong message on Big Tech (which they love regulating). And they got it.

“It’s time to pass bipartisan legislation to stop Big Tech from collecting personal data on kids and teenagers online, ban targeted advertising to children and impose stricter limits on the personal data these companies collect on all of us,” Biden said.

BUT NO BAND-AID ON THE SORE POINT: While there was little expectation in Europe that Biden would announce any changes to the Inflation Reduction Act, which is viewed as protectionist and threatening to industries across the Atlantic, the president somehow managed to deepen Europe’s mistrust over Bidenomics.

Made in America, only: “Tonight, I’m also announcing new standards to require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America,” he said. “And on my watch, American roads, American bridges and American highways will be made with American products.”

LAST-MINUTE FRANCO-GERMAN LOBBYING: Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, and his French counterpart, Bruno Le Maire, were in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday to lobby American officials. But they appear to have secured little guarantee from Washington.

PRAGUE PURSUES NEW PATH

A DECADE, SO LONG: The Czech Republic is bidding farewell to President Miloš Zeman, whose 10-year tenure marked by an unapologetic Russia- and China-friendly line will be coming to an end in March. He will be succeeded by Petr Pavel, a former NATO general determined to put an end to both of Zeman’s diplomatic preferences.

WHY THIS MATTERS: Under the Czech constitution, the presidency is separate from the government led by the prime minister, meaning Zeman has been able to make statements in his official capacity that have often gone against the government's line.

ALREADY: Pavel made a phone call to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, becoming the first incoming EU head of state to do so. Beijing reacted furiously, blaming Pavel for trampling on a red line.

THORNY PATH: Remember Lithuania? When it started befriending Taiwan, Beijing punished it with an all-out embargo, prompting the European Union to take China to the World Trade Organization. Beijing also downgraded its diplomatic relations with Vilnius.

I SAT DOWN WITH FOREIGN MINISTER JAN LIPAVSKÝ to talk about Prague’s new direction. The following interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Why does Taiwan matter to the Czech economy?

Taiwan is a bigger investor than China in Czechia. And in the European comparison, we are the fourth largest Taiwanese investment in Europe. Given our size, it’s quite a major place.

What do you think about President-elect Pavel’s call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen?

It is in the interest of Czechia to strengthen relations with Taiwan and other democratic partners in the Indo-Pacific region. We have our own “one China” policy. Nothing has changed. ... Our assessment is that we are not breaching our “one China” policy.

Is it time to diversify from Taiwan’s semiconductors?

I wouldn’t say so. What we need to do is diversify from Chinese technologies. We need to be very, very well aware of that. Cooperation with Taiwan is definitely very much welcome. I wouldn't call for diversification from Taiwan; I would call for more cooperation on economic and scientific issues with Taiwan.

Do you worry that as the U.S. focuses on China after the balloon saga, its attention on Europe would weaken?

I would disagree with the assumption in your question. … The whole idea of NATO is built on the U.S. strategic guarantee for Europe, and the understanding in the U.S. that they need Europe.

Even though the focus on China was mostly articulated during the Trump presidency — and yes, of course, [there were] concerns that the U.S. won't be present in Europe to help Europe with the Russia threat — that didn't turn out to be true.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses parliamentarians in Westminster Hall in London.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses parliamentarians in Westminster Hall in London. | Pool photo by Stefan Rousseau

ZELENSKYY IN LONDON: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and made a fresh plea for fighter jets as he addressed the British parliament and journalists in a rare trip out of his country. He has already held talks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and will be granted an audience with King Charles III. Ahead of their meeting, Sunak announced the U.K. will now train pilots on the operation of NATO-standard fighter jets as well as marines.

11,000 DEAD IN TURKEY AND SYRIA: The death toll from the 7.8- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes along the Turkish/Syrian borders has risen further, with more than 11,000 dead in the two countries.

State of emergency: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced a three-month state of emergency in the 10 worst-affected provinces. The state of emergency will end just before elections take place on May 14, when Erdogan will attempt to stay in power after more than two decades at the helm.

Outpouring of goodwill from NATO (wannabes): All NATO countries have contributed to search-and-rescue efforts or monetary aid for Turkey. The same goes for the two NATO candidates, Sweden and Finland, whose bid to join the military bloc is being hampered by Ankara. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö sent Erdogan a letter expressing his “deepest condolences,” according to his official Twitter, while Sweden sent $660,000 in humanitarian aid.

TANK MOVEMENTS: A total of 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are under restoration in order to be supplied to Ukraine within months, according to a joint statement issued on Tuesday.

Canada’s got the modern gear: Canada’s Defense Minister Anita Anand announced that four Leopard 2 tanks would be sent to Ukraine.

Theatrical risk: The Oscars are wading into a Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical minefield. Of the five films shortlisted for this year’s best documentary, one is about Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny and another is about a Ukrainian orphanage — a combination that’s sparked a conflict between Ukrainians and the Russian opposition. The fact that Putin’s a common enemy doesn’t help. Veronika Melkozerova reports from Kyiv.

GLOBETROTTERS

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is visiting Washington, D.C., today, meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, as well as other senior officials, and Senate and House leadership.

KLEPTOWATCH

POLITICO EXCLUSIVE: Saudi Arabia offered to pay for new sports stadiums in Greece and Egypt if they agreed to team up with the Gulf heavyweight in a joint bid to host the 2030 football World Cup, Ali Walker writes.

In exchange, the Saudis would get to stage three-quarters of all the matches. Full story here.

MOVES

LONDON RESHUFFLING … British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reshuffled his Cabinet Tuesday. He created a new energy and net zero department … created a new science and innovation department … merged the business and trade departments … and downsized the culture, media and sport department. To cap it all, former Trade Minister Greg Hands took over as Tory Party chair.

U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh is leaving the Biden administration to run the NHL Players Association, a hockey players' union.

Vladimir Oshchepkov became the inaugural Russian consul-general to the northeastern Chinese city of Harbin.

 

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.

 
 
BRAIN FOOD

Europe’s decade of the spy, by Michael Jonsson, deputy research director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency

The Yemeni Employees the U.S. Left Behind, on Foreign Policy

In Hong Kong, 47 Democracy Leaders on Trial for Security Charges, by the New York Times

The Missing Parts, a New York Times video on a filmmaker’s trip to revisit Cuba

Thanks to editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Hannah Farrow.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities

 

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