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Japan contemplates the distant future (and regaining its tech mantle)

How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures
Feb 06, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Digital Future Daily newsletter logo

By Ben Schreckinger

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks at a news conference on February 25, 2022 in Tokyo, Japan.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks at a news conference on February 25, 2022 in Tokyo, Japan. | Rodrigo Reyes Marin-Pool/Getty Images

When the government of Japan launched a study group on the decentralized Web last October, it cast a wide net. Among those it tapped for advice was a sci-fi novelist.

Taiyo Fujii, a writer known for works exploring the future of genetically modified food and space-based terrorism, did not disappoint. He suggested that the group organize itself as a DAO, a blockchain-based organization that members govern with the help of digital voting tokens.

Fast-forward to last week, when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida brought the straight-out-of-sci fi idea to Japan’s legislature.

To win the future, he suggested at a budget hearing, the country could organize its population using DAOs.

One argument for this (and an idea that has been studied by Japan's Digital Agency) is that DAOs could reinject some dynamism into rural regions where populations are aging and shrinking, allowing their residents to coordinate in new ways online. (Think of the ways a Facebook group can reconnect long-lost high school classmates and help them plan a reunion, but more ambitious.)

That might never happen, but the simple fact that Kishida plugged DAOs in Tokyo’s House of Representatives is testament to just how forward-leaning the Japanese government’s rhetoric has become in recent months.

The shoutout is more than name-dropping. It’s part of an emerging strategy in Japan that calls for the country to take a more active role in shaping global policy consensus on Web3 — and for reconsideration of what laws are even enforceable in the face of new forms of online coordination that seem to defy oversight, according to a new report from Japan’s Digital Agency, as well as interviews with its authors.

Japan has been struggling with how to regain the tech primacy it enjoyed in the later decades of the 20th century, when it was widely seen as the world’s most high-tech society. As the world copes with a new wave of digital technologies, Kishida sees a fresh opening for Japan to reassert itself.

While tech regulators in Washington and Brussels tend to take a cautious stance towards decentralized internet applications, Kishida greets them with enthusiasm — an approach reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s embrace of the “Information Superhighway” in the 1990s.

To get a sense of where Kishida’s government intends to steer the world’s third-largest economy, DFD caught up with the Digital Agency’s Web3 team, both before and after the December release of their report on Web3.

The agency, which was established in 2021, is led by Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono, who placed second to Kishida in the Liberal Democratic Party’s last leadership election and is considered a potential successor to the post of prime minister.

In formulating its approach to Web3, his staff is seriously contemplating everything from DAOs to NFTs to changes in the nature of human existence itself.

Some of the recommendations are immediate and practical: The report sees NFTs as a natural avenue for promoting Japan’s international cultural cachet (think anime and manga), and calls for development of new intellectual property standards to promote their use.

More broadly, it concludes that the interconnected, global nature of Web3 means that international consensus will be a more effective means of governing it than national laws or multilateral treaties. To that end, the report calls for the government to step up its presence at global technology forums.

The report also concedes that — just as crypto’s earliest promoters intended — blockchains may make some forms of online activity effectively ungovernable.

“Areas that are difficult to control with laws and regulations alone are expanding, and it is necessary to reconsider the enforceability of laws and regulations and the role of regulations,” it finds, according to a machine translation of the report, the accuracy of which was confirmed by Hiroki Kodama, an officer on the Digital Agency’s Web3.0 policy team (an official English translation is forthcoming).

One sign of the agency's forward-leaning posture is its use of the term “Web3” itself, which has no settled definition. Digital Agency staffers noted that the U.S. executive branch tends to eschew the term in favor of more narrow, specific words like “digital asset” and “blockchain.”

The November collapse of FTX had raised widespread doubts about the credibility of Web3 generally, though Japan’s own strict consumer protection laws meant that the funds of the exchange’s Japanese customers were kept safe.

As for DAOs, agency staffers said they had yet to find real-world uses of them in Japan that were living up to the high hopes. They were unsure, too, whether they would keep the study group DAO going.

But the final report recommends that the study group keep its DAO operating and that government ministries collaborate with the online group. “We think of the DAO as a good tool to coordinate Web3 policy with stakeholders,” Kodama said.

The report’s consideration of futuristic scenarios does not stop at DAOs. It also suggests that rapid changes in human relationships to digital technology could radically change people’s conceptions of themselves.

“Ultimately, in the future, there is a possibility that the concept of individuals and free will will change,” it concludes, “such as one person using multiple bodies for different purposes and multiple people sharing one body.”

That may sound far-out, but for the Digital Agency the far-out is just another part of its jurisdiction.

“It is necessary,” the report states, “to address systemic and regulatory issues from the distant future.

 

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AN AI GOES ROGUE

Yes, there are guardrails around the amazing new generation of AIs.

And yes, people are already figuring out how to break the AIs out.

OpenAI, the company that launched ChatGPT last fall, has rules to prevent its uncanny robo-writer from having subjective political opinions and creating violent content. And over on Reddit, users have rapidly been coming up with creative ways to undermine OpenAI’s policies and make the AI violate its own limits.

They effectively engineered a version of ChatGPT that short-circuits some of the checks by making the AI impersonate itself — but with fewer rules. The new version, called “DAN” (for “Do Anything Now”) appeared on the internet in December 2022, and users have continued to refine it. By Saturday, the subreddit was already on version 5.0.

Andreessen Horowitz consumer investment partner Justine Moore tested DAN and got the AI to do several things it’s not supposed to do, like work through a violent version of the philosophical “trolley problem” (ChatGPT isn’t supposed to embrace violence in any capacity), make a controversial geopolitical statement and estimate the average IQ of various social app users. — Mohar Chatterjee

THE ECONOMICS OF FUTURE-PROOFING

 The F-22 Raptor takes part in a NATO exercise on October 12, 2022 in Lask, Poland.

The F-22 Raptor takes part in a NATO exercise on October 12, 2022 in Lask, Poland. | Omar Marques/Getty Images

On Saturday, an F-22 stealth fighter aircraft shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon at President Joe Biden’s instructions, bringing an end to one of the stranger diplomatic crises we’ve seen this year.

We did a back-of-the-envelope calculation to put some numbers on how much the US spent on shooting down the balloon, compared to how much the Chinese spent on simply floating it across the continent.

The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor cost a whopping $32.4 billion to develop, and estimates of the per unit cost for actually building one vary from $150 million to $216 million. Additionally, it costs between $68,000 to $85,325 per hour to operate the F-22. The aircraft also used “one AIM-9X Sidewinder missile” to actually shoot down the balloon. Those run about $472,000 a pop. So in total, excluding R&D, the dramatic takedown cost roughly — roughly — $500,000, plus labor, fuel and balloon recovery. (Plus, of course, quite a bit more for the plane.)

The Chinese balloon may not have been an ordinary weather balloon (it was certainly a lot bigger and displayed unexpected maneuverability). But it was still a low-cost surveillance platform. An expensive but standard American weather balloon costs about $160. We found a surveillance balloon on Alibaba for about $3,000 — so let's go with that as an upper end starting cost. There’s also the cost for some sort of high-altitude navigation system on the balloon, which could run anywhere from a few hundred to a few million dollars — although, why would you put something expensive on an aircraft so obviously unprotected? So, let's say the total cost to the Chinese for the balloon was about $5,000 (again, not including R&D). Maybe it was a lot more, like $50,000.

The F-22 Raptor was intended to project total dominance of the air — and it clearly proved its superiority to a balloon in its first air-to-air takedown. But also, the United States spent roughly between 10 to 100 times what the Chinese did on the whole balloon affair.

This is all an extremely back-of-the-envelope calculation, we admit, but it does suggest one important takeaway: that technical dominance can be very, very expensive. And even if you notch a win in the skies, “future-proofing” can still leave you economically vulnerable to an adversary going the opposite direction. —Mohar Chatterjee

Tweet of the Day

Introducing: a drone to study biodiversity.

Introducing: a drone to study biodiversity. | @newscientist on Twitter

THE FUTURE IN ANOTHER FIVE(ISH) LINKS

Stay in touch with the whole team: Ben Schreckinger (bschreckinger@politico.com); Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); and Benton Ives (bives@politico.com). Follow us @DigitalFuture on Twitter.

Ben Schreckinger covers tech, finance and politics for POLITICO; he is an investor in cryptocurrency.

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