Political aftershocks in Turkey

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Feb 13, 2023 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com While our attention is focused on unidentified flying objects, there are a bunch of very identifiable political campaigns, geopolitical tensions, and backlash to government taking shape on-the-ground. THE WEEK AHEAD Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will launch her presidential campaign Wednesday. Munich Security Conference this morning published its annual report ahead of its gathering, which starts Friday. THE HELL IN TURKEY Is a death toll of 36,000 from the 7.8 magnitude earthquake in southern Turkey and northern Syria, the end of either the death count or the political effects? Almost certainly not. How can it be, given that there is 100ft deep crevice and a rescue operation that has often lacked essentials from water and body bags to cranes? Some families told AP it took rescue teams four days to arrive to their buildings — virtually extinguishing opportunities to find survivors trapped in the rubble. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears more focused on a centralized cover-up than an effective on-the-ground response. That centralization starts with an emergency decree that will last in Turkey’s southern provinces until just two weeks before the country’s May election. Ritual shaming of building contractors has begun — Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay said 131 suspects had so far been identified as responsible for the collapse of some of the thousands of buildings. But that’s cold comfort for survivors— since many have lost their entire families, despite that information about the flawed buildings was well-known before the quake. REALITY CHECK: Turkey-based Canadian journalist Nick Ashdown puts the situation into perspective for those not familiar with Turkish politics: “Imagine not only 10 cities half gone and the government floundering. Imagine not only that the government was begged to do something that could have prevented 95 percent of the devastation and didn't, but also that they are now gaslighting a desperate public.” By the numbers: In addition to tens of thousand dead, the Turkish economy is now going to take a massive hit. Already struggling with the world’s highest inflation rate — at over 50 percent — there’s now going to be a 10 percent hit to GDP, sending the country into a deep recession, Bloomberg reported. YOU KNOW IT’S TOTALLY MESSED UP WHEN: The government misuses statements by earthquake scientists, to cover for their lack of preventative action  The main local airport was built directly on the faultline, wrecking the runway, and hindering relief efforts The government seizes an aid truck from an opposition party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party  Ukraine has sent emergency crews to help, despite being neck deep in its own hot war  U.N. Aid chief Martin Griffiths has admitted the U.N. failed Syrians, after taking 5 days to turn up An Austrian army spokesperson said early on Saturday, via a written statement, that clashes between unidentified groups in the Hatay province had left dozens of personnel from the Austrian Forces Disaster Relief Unit seeking shelter in a base camp with other international organizations. German agencies also briefly suspended their work.   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS TECH — EUROPE LAUNCHES UNICORN FUND: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and the European Investment Bank today launched a new fund meant to help EU start-ups stay based on the Continent — meaning it’s designed to fend off American and Asian attempts to snatch them up and move their top talent out of their original base. Spain’s Finance Minister Nadia Calviño told my POLITICO colleague Jakob Hanke Vela that the new “fund of funds” will focus on companies in their third or fourth round of funding — those about the hit billion-dollar unicorn status. MIGRATION — THE GREAT WALL OF EUROPE: The EU refuses to directly fund a border wall, yet it now all but admits such a barrier is coming. A majority of the bloc’s national leaders once dismissed border walls as a crude Trumpian solution to their migration problems. But at a summit on Friday they agreed to channel “substantial” funds into more frontier guards and surveillance equipment and will ramp up returns of rejected asylum seekers. A minority continues to push for Brussels to help pay for border fences. More from Suzanne Lynch and Jacopo Barigazzi. HUMANITY, THE REBOOT: Australia and New Zealand best placed to survive nuclear apocalypse, according to a study for the International Risk Analysis journa l, by Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson. ECONOMY — THE NEW HUMAN AGE: That’s the label recruitment firm Manpower is giving to the growing digitization of work, which is increasingly taking place in hybrid environments: home and office, tech and in-person. Manpower also found via a survey of 21,000 adults in eight countries: More employers are eliminating college degree requirements and instead focusing on skills  Remote/hybrid work hinders female career progression for women, by reducing access to senior leaders  GLOBETROTTERS DUBAI’S WORLD GOVERNMENT SUMMIT: The three-day event started today, the latest hoping to emulate the success of the World Economic Forum in Davos, down to the white chairs, blue stage backdrops and WEF founder Klaus Schwab talking about “the state of the world.” The UAE government has sought a similar crowd including the likes of IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, and Meta’s No. 2 executive Nick Clegg. The big draw: “Elon Musk 2.0,” whatever that means, who will speak at 9 a.m. local time on Wednesday. DIVERSITY THROUGH DISCOUNTS: Canada’s biggest tech conference, the Toronto-based Collision, says it’s “committed to changing the gender ratio at our events and to empowering women across the globe” to that end, “If you're a woman in tech you can get 75 percent off a pair of Collision tickets.” Note: the requirement to buy two tickets to access the discount is both a way to get more women signed up (both ticket holders must join the conference’s “women in tech” network), and means the discount is really only 50 percent on the normal ticket price, in the event that your female friends are less enthusiastic than you. BORIS JOHNSON EARNED MORE THAN $6 MILLION … in the five months since his resignation as U.K. prime minister. KLEPTOWATCH SUPERYACHT SEIZURES AND THE ONES THAT GOT AWAY: Almost a year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at least 20 yachts belonging to Russian oligarchs have been seized around the world — but plenty continue to roam free despite widespread sanctions. Spire, a data analytics company, says its satellites and “dark shipping detection solution” show oligarch yacht movements have changed dramatically from a year ago. The Mediterranean is no longer the Russian superyacht hotspot, with the exception of Turkey, and you’re now more likely to find such yachts in Mexico, the Caribbean or the Gulf. Track the yachts in real-time here.   TRANSATLANTIC STAR WARS SNAPCHAT: At POLITICO, the force is with you, and so is Mark Hamill. MOVES Ben LaBolt will be the new White House communications director, replacing Kate Bedingfield. Philippe Etienne, France’s outgoing ambassador to the U.S., is headed to Columbia University as a visiting McGovern professor of international and public affairs this spring,” he tweeted about the move. Kazuo Ueda, a former Bank of Japan board member, will be the bank’s next governor. Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Friday nominated a new prime minister, Dorin Recean, to keep her country on a pro-EU trajectory after the government of Natalia Gavrilița collapsed on Friday. Nicaragua released more than 200 political prisoners Feb. 9 — including all five jailed presidential candidates — sending them to the U.S. Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Joseph Gedeon and producer Sophie Gardner. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | EU Confidential | | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.       Follow us

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