Russia’s war pushes food crisis to its most dangerous stage

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Feb 21, 2023 View in browser   By Garrett Downs and Meredith Lee Hill Presented by With help from Marcia Brown QUICK FIX — After a year of full-scale war in Ukraine, the next year is expected to be the toughest yet on global hunger and food systems as the long-term damage sets in. The next big hurdle to watch: the fate of a critical diplomatic agreement helping to free trapped Ukrainian grain for world markets. — Democrats on Capitol Hill are trying to push back against GOP attacks on food assistance in the upcoming debt limit fight.  — As the pandemic emergency sunsets and Congress mulls what to do about rising SNAP costs, we break down the current work requirements that already exist.  HAPPY TUESDAY, Feb. 21. Welcome to Morning Ag. We’re your hosts, Garrett Downs and Meredith Lee Hill. Send tips to gdowns@politico.com and meredithlee@politico.com, and follow us @Morning_Ag. A message from the International Dairy Foods Association: 1 in 5 WIC moms are ready to drop out. Why? Learn about USDA’s plans to cut dairy benefits in WIC & the cost to women, infants, and children.   Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. Driving the Day FOOD CRISIS FALLOUT: Skyrocketing food prices and growing widespread hunger have roiled geopolitics, food systems and commodity markets for the past year. The year ahead will be the biggest test, according to U.S. and other Western officials, as they argue Russia is continuing to weaponize food, holding back some of its fertilizer exports while cutting off Ukraine, a major grain and food exporter, from its normal global trading routes — most notably to wide swaths of Africa and the Middle East. AFRICA IMPACT: As Meredith scooped this weekend, Sens. Lindsey Graham(R-S.C.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) are part of a codel of lawmakers this week in Zambia — one of the many African nations reeling from the high cost of food and fertilizer driven by Russia’s war. One notable member of the trip: Cindy McCain, the current U.S. ambassador to three United Nations food and agriculture agencies in Rome. McCain, a Biden ally and wife of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), is among the cadre of U.S. diplomats trying to stave off the worst of the food crisis, and she’s also the top contender to replace David Beasley as head of the United Nations’ World Food Program when Beasley’s term expires in April. People familiar with the selection process say U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres is hoping to have a successor named in time for a key Feb. 27 WFP board meeting. BLACK SEA UNCERTAINTY: One lifeline for volatile global commodity markets has been a fragile diplomatic agreement among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, which has allowed a slower flow of key food supplies to leave Ukraine. But the current deal expires March 19. And, Russian officials are once again raising the possibility of sanctions relief in exchange for staying in the agreement. That’s something U.S. officials and lawmakers have dismissed, citing Russia’s ongoing attacks in Ukraine — which the U.S. in recent days labeled “crimes against humanity.” “Sanctions lifting should not be on the table given the continued, prolific attacks against Ukrainians,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told MA. “I hope [the deal is] continued but we can't let the pressure up on Russia.” FERTILIZER CRUNCH: However, talks to renew the deal have included something else Russia wants: the possibility of allowing Moscow to restart an ammonia pipeline that runs to the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, one of the few ports currently covered by the humanitarian arrangement. Ukrainian officials, citing security concerns, have been extremely hesitant to allow such a move. One Ukrainian official confirmed it’s been discussed, but added the prospect of green-lighting the effort now “looks unlikely.” Ammonia is a key ingredient in fertilizer production. U.S. and European officials have been carefully weighing the pipeline’s possible benefits to easing fertilizer supply crunches and food prices, with the trade-off of providing a new revenue stream to Russia’s war machine. They’ve largely come down on the side of allowing it to go through, should Ukraine OK it as part of the larger grain deal renewal. Coons, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Biden ally, recently suggested to MA that he could grudgingly support the resumption of the Russian pipeline operations. “We're seeing record hunger around the world. If part of the outcome here is that an input for fertilizer gets to the world market, I think that's an acceptable piece of the potential outcome,” Coons said. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who along with Graham met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv last month, told MA he was hopeful the agreement will be renewed. “The Russians’ exploitation of world hunger and famine is consistent with their savage, murderous invasion of Ukraine. I'm hoping that they will care about their image in the world, if not the real life impacts,” Blumenthal said. FARM BILL BATTLES FOOD ASSISTANCE IN GOP CROSSHAIRS: As we’ve reported, a growing number of congressional Republicans are getting behind steep cuts to federal food assistance as part of their demands in the brewing debt limit fight. While some Ag Committee Republicans are trying to shield SNAP and other programs from the debt fight, there are growing GOP calls for reforms in the farm bill. Sen. John Boozman (Ark.), the top Republican on the Ag Committee and a key anti-hunger advocate in the Senate, accused top USDA officials last week of a “gross abuse of discretion” when they, without congressional input, updated and expanded the size of a critical food assistance guidance plan that helps to determine federal food benefits for more than 40 million people. Boozman said the increased spending threatens the viability of the upcoming farm bill, and he cited a recent report from the Government Accountability Office that said the USDA process lacked accountability and transparency. (More for Pros here.) Senior USDA officials stood by the process, arguing the outdated plan needed to be updated amid high inflation, and ultimately helped to feed millions more people. The increase in spending and USDA admonishment from an independent agency comes at a politically tricky time for Democrats, as they seek to defend against a flurry of Republican arguments for spending cuts and new SNAP work requirements as part of the debt limit battle.   We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today.     STABENOW WEIGHS IN: Any conversation around actual changes to federal food assistance or child nutrition on Capitol Hill goes through Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), No. 3 in Senate Democratic leadership and chair of the Agriculture Committee. So while a slew of House Democrats are prepping a variety of messaging bills around food assistance, including to expand SNAP amid GOP attacks, Stabenow is focused on holding the line. “We're not going to be cutting SNAP,” Stabenow told MA. As for the GOP push for new work requirements, she added: “The ones that are coming back” after the pandemic public health emergency ends in May “make sense.” “There will always be someone looking for a reason to cut food assistance,” Stabenow continued. “We're talking about the greatest country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world, and our capacity to provide $6 a day per individual to be able to make sure they're not going hungry,” she said. “And I think that is something we should feel very good about.”   A message from the International Dairy Foods Association:   CURRENT SNAP WORK REQUIREMENTS: As Congress mulls enhancing work requirements, current rules are set to kick back in when the pandemic emergency ends in May. Some states have requested extended waivers, while others have not. A senior USDA official broke down the two sets of work requirements for MA, which we’ve boiled down below. General work requirements: These requirements are applicable to recipients aged 16 to 59. Recipients must register for work to receive benefits. They cannot voluntarily quit a job or reduce their hours while receiving SNAP and must accept any job they are offered. Recipients may also have to participate in assigned employment and training programs if the state requires them. This group is typically comprised of families and those with dependents. Exemptions: Households can receive exemptions for a number of reasons, including if they already work 30 hours a week, take care of a child or incapacitated person or are unable to work for a physical or mental reason. ABAWD requirements: These more stringent requirements apply to adults aged 18 to 49 who do not have a dependent living in their home. ABAWDs are required to work 20 hours per week for a total of 80 hours per month either in paid or volunteer work and training. If they don’t complete those requirements they receive a “countable month,” which counts against their time limit. The ABAWD time limit — which was waived during the pandemic — means that recipients can only receive SNAP without complying with work requirements for three months within three years. The three-month limit can happen at any point during the three-year period. So, racking up three countable months will cause an ABAWD to lose SNAP benefits for the remainder of the three-year period. “What we do see when the time limit is in place is a lot of folks usually use those countable months up in that first bit of that three-year period,” the official said. “And then they have to wait three years before they can receive benefits again.” Exemptions: ABAWDs are exempted if they are already exempted from the general requirements. They are also exempt if pregnant or have someone under 18 in their household. REPAIR ROUNDUP: At least eleven states are considering right-to-repair bills for ag equipment, including Colorado, which passed a wheelchair repair bill last session. Colorado Rep. Brianna Titone, a Democrat and the bill’s lead sponsor, is optimistic about the ag bill’s chances in the state legislature and hopeful that the state can set a national precedent. “Maybe an MOU can come about on this bill. Just like what happened in Massachusetts in 2012 with car repair,” said Titone, referencing how car manufacturers largely followed the Massachusetts repair standards after the state bill passed. Also, the National Farmers Union announced its support for a petition demanding the Environmental Protection Agency enforce the Clean Air Act, a change that proponents say will force Deere & Co. to improve access to repair on agricultural equipment.   JOIN POLITICO ON 3/1 TO DISCUSS AMERICAN PRIVACY LAWS: Americans have fewer privacy rights than Europeans, and companies continue to face a minefield of competing state and foreign legislation. There is strong bipartisan support for a federal privacy bill, but it has yet to materialize. Join POLITICO on 3/1 to discuss what it will take to get a federal privacy law on the books, potential designs for how this type of legislation could protect consumers and innovators, and more. REGISTER HERE.     Row Crops — An NPR analysis of USDA data found that Black farmers receive a disproportionately low share of direct loans given to farmers, leaving them behind in a program that is important to their livelihoods, writes NPR’s Ximena Bustillo. — The Labor Department found that the use of child labor by meatpacking sanitation contractor, Packers Sanitation Services Inc., was even more widespread than previously reported, our Nick Niedzwiadek reports. An investigation found more than 100 children employed in hazardous jobs for PSSI in Cargill, Tyson and JBS plants. — The Dutch prime minister slammed farmers who confronted the country’s finance minister with torches and blocked her entry into a cultural center, POLITICO Europe’s Wilhelmine Preussen reports. THAT’S ALL FOR MA. Drop us a line: gdowns@politico.com, meredithlee@politico.com, marciabrown@politico.com, abehsudi@politico.com and ecadei@politico.com. A message from the International Dairy Foods Association: IDFA-Morning Consult polling shows that 20% of WIC moms would choose not to re-enroll in the program should USDA follow through with the cuts to milk and dairy benefits. Another one-third (34%) were unsure if they would re-enroll in the program following the proposed cuts. At a time of rising food costs and high food insecurity, we should focus on increasing access to a wide variety of healthful, nutrient-dense, and under-consumed foods. Learn about USDA’s plans to cut dairy benefits in WIC & the cost to women, infants, and children.     Follow us on Twitter Emily Cadei @emilycadei Adam Beshudi @ABehsudi Meredith Lee @meredithllee Garrett Downs @_garrettdowns Marcia Brown @Marcia_Brown9   Follow us

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