Welcome to a special edition of China Watcher focusing on what impact the detection last week of an alleged Chinese spy balloon over the U.S. — followed by its destruction by a U.S. air force missile on Saturday — may have on U.S.-China ties. And fear not — you’ll receive the regularly scheduled China Watcher on Thursday. Enjoy, Phelim The uproar over the incursion of a Chinese spy balloon into U.S. airspace last week thrusts already fraught ties with Beijing on a downward trajectory. The past six days have upended Beijing’s efforts in recent weeks to steer bilateral relations to a less rancorous setting through a diplomatic charm offensive geared to the lead-up of Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s now-postponed Feb. 5-6 trip to Beijing. Instead of two days of photo ops and diplomatic glad handing in the service of better relations, the Chinese government has endured a humbling week of intense media coverage of the balloon’s passage across the continental United States capped by its destruction by a U.S. air force missile on Saturday. Here’s a recap of what’s happened over those days and how it’s affecting the calculus on China. The incident brought the bipartisan Capitol Hill consensus of a China threat into U.S. living rooms via days of nonstop live TV news coverage. And has provided red meat for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who want the Biden administration to take a harder line with Beijing due to what they say is now-undeniable proof of China’s danger to U.S. national security. That sets the stage for a fresh round bilateral acrimony as both sides brace for House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY’s promised trip to Taiwan in the coming weeks and the wave of intense performative rage that will likely reap from Beijing. “The message I have for the administration is: Don't fall for the Chinese Communist Party charm offensive. It's a farce. It's a bedtime story they tell out of touch global elites at Davos,” Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), chair of the new House Select Committee on China, told Fox News on Sunday. Gallagher argued the administration needs to get tougher with Beijing “before something far more dangerous than a balloon is flying over American territory.” Rep. ANDY KIM (D-NJ) echoed that sentiment on Saturday by calling the balloon incursion “a reckless move by President Xi’s regime that further inflames relations.” Lawmakers across the political spectrum see a clear benefit in taking a hawkish stance toward Beijing, as my POLITICO colleagues ADAM CANCRYN and CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO reported on Sunday. Even as China remains a crucial trading and economic partner, Republicans and an increasing number of Democrats are positioning the country as a key political concern — and thus a domestic and geopolitical battering ram. And the fallout from that has transatlantic implications as EU leaders are likely to come under intensifying pressure from the White House to pick sides and join forces against China, just as they were hoping for a thaw in tricky relations with Beijing, as my Brussels-based POLITICO colleague STUART LAU reported on Monday. The Pentagon’s revelation of the balloon’s presence over the U.S. on Thursday prompted McCarthy to set the congressional rhetorical tone by declaring the incursion a “brazen disregard for U.S. sovereignty,” as me and my POLITICO colleague LARA SELIGMAN reported. McCarthy also demanded a briefing of the “Gang of Eight” — the group of lawmakers charged with reviewing the nation’s most sensitive intelligence information. But despite rampant political rhetoric about economic decoupling, the two countries are too interdependent to opt for a drastic downgrade in bilateral ties, as me and my colleague NAHAL TOOSI reported on Saturday. And historically, other U.S.-Chinese relationship rupturing incidents — from what the U.S. claimed was its accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to a U.S. spy plane’s collision with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea in 2001 — have faded in favor of resumed, if strained, ties. The Chinese government has reacted with an air of embarrassed restraint. A day after news broke of the balloon loitering over Montana, Beijing claimed responsibility for the airship but said it was a civilian craft used primarily for meteorological purposes. Notably, the Chinese Foreign Ministry also expressed “regrets” for the incident, suggesting a desire to prevent the incident from affecting Blinken’s scheduled visit. That gambit failed — hours later a senior State Department official announced the administration had postponed the trip due to what he described as the “unacceptable and irresponsible” incursion. Beijing’s response to the balloon’s destruction has included a Foreign Ministry statement on Sunday declaring it an “overreaction.” The ministry followed that up with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister — and incoming ambassador to the U.S. — XIE FENG issuing a demarche warning that the balloon’s destruction had damaged efforts aimed at “stabilizing Sino-U.S. relations.” That mild messaging likely won’t last in the face of intensifying hawkish congressional rhetoric and the possibility that an ongoing U.S. military retrieval operation of the balloon debris reveals details of the airship’s mission. “You’re going to see the end of the apology circuit and see the beginning of a counter narrative of [Beijing] blaming the U.S.” for the incident, said LYLE MORRIS, former country director for China at the Office of the Secretary of Defense. But behind that bluster is a Beijing still anxious to reduce U.S.-China tensions while it grapples with a disastrous Covid outbreak and an economic downturn. That will empower Blinken when he decides the time is right to reschedule his Beijing visit, as me and my colleague NAHAL TOOSI reported on Friday. “This event definitely strengthens the hands of the United States,” said HEATHER MCMAHON, a former senior director at the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. “Anytime an espionage operation is exposed, [it] gives the advantage to the targeted nation.” Thanks to: Mike Zapler, Heidi Vogt, Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi, Adam Cancryn, Christopher Cadelago, Stuart Lau, Matt Kaminski and digital producer Andrew Howard. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com. | 
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