State of the Ballounion

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends and decisions.

Feb 06, 2023 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to rheath@politico.com The Week Ahead DISASTER: A 7.5 magnitude aftershock hit central Turkey and northern Syria this morning, following an earlier 7.8 earthquake overnight. At least 1500 deaths have been reported. RUSSIA: The European Union is now enforcing an embargoon Russian refined petroleum products, including diesel and aviation fuel. ECONOMY: France’s Bruno Le Maire and Germany’s Robert Habeck are due to hold talks with White House officials on Tuesday to underscore EU concerns about the Inflation Reduction Act. STATE OF THE UNION: President Joe Biden will have China one-upmanship as the backdrop for this flagship speech Tuesday night — thanks to ongoing debate about how to deal with Chinese surveillance balloons. While the speech will serve as a kind of soft launch for Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign, writes Jonathan Lemire, it is also guaranteed to be a speech full of global angles that would not normally be so prominent in a presidential race. It can hardly be otherwise as potential 2024 rivals such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tweeting: “Biden is letting China walk all over us” Global angles to look for: Outcompeting a rising China and supporting Taiwan, and defending democracy in Ukraine through strong alliances (Biden meets Friday with Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva,whose victory in Brazil’s recent election helped to stabilize democracy in the country). White it’s rare, previous State of the Union speeches have been venues for major global announcements. This year marks the 20th anniversary of George W. Bush’s global Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (known as PEPFAR). Announced with $15 billion and a goal of preventing 7 million new HIV infections, PEPFAR ended up saving 25 million lives and put 20 million people on life-saving drugs. CHINA — BLINKEN DOES NOT DO BEIJING: Secretary of State Antony Blinken isn’t in Beijing today, as planned, with the trip postponed because of the Chinese balloon. But lines of communication remain open. Blinken has spoken to China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, and Chinese and American delegations will be under one roof in two weeks at the Munich Security Conference: See Global Insider’s interview with the conference chief Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, below. GOVERNORS GATHER: On Thursday, Ryan will host five U.S. governors for interviews at POLITICO’s annual The Fifty: Governors event. Democratic Govs. JB Pritzker (Illinois), Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Tim Walz (Minnesota), and Republican Govs. Chris Sununu (New Hampshire) and Doug Burgum (North Dakota). RSVP here. On Friday, President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will welcome the nation’s governors to the White House during the winter meeting of the National Governors Association. UNITED NATIONS: Did you know? Tiny Malta is now president of the U.N. Security Council, through February.   JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.     MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE PREVIEW — CHRISTOPH HEUSGEN INTERVIEW Vice President Harris and a U.S. congressional delegation will be the headline acts alongside a delegation of Chinese officials. They’re joined by “more than 45 heads of states and government,” according to organizers, plus more than 50 foreign ministers and 30 defense ministers. Ryan spoke to Ambassador Heusgen, a former German ambassador to the United Nations, via video. The text has been lightly edited for length and clarity. You’re in the final stage of Munich Security Conference preparations, your first time in charge: What's top of your mind?  It will be a year after the aggression of Russia against Ukraine. Where do we stand? Where do we go from here? In Munich, the real action often happens off the stage: Same again this year? We want to keep it in a format which allows — in the premises of this hotel and the surrounding buildings — to have real interchange. So there is limited audience participation, but participants will run into each other. We provide a series of smaller and bigger rooms for bilaterals and smaller meetings, to work together on a problem or project. We will also apply the so-called "Munich rule," which means that we have people on podiums discussing with each other; they have to engage and interact with each other and not just preach: Don’t lecture or ignore one another. Day one will have a European focus, but day two is new: the Global South focus… The theme is accountability: accountability for war crimes, for crimes against humanity, for the crime of aggression. It is not focused exclusively on Ukraine, but we stand for a rules-based international order, so we will focus of course on the question of Putin’s responsibility. This is not a continuation of an East-West conflict, or of NATO against Russia. No, it's a breach of international law and something that affects the whole world. We have the prosecutor general of the International Criminal Court, but we also will have others. Representatives from the Global South will show that the challenges that we face, whether it’s climate change or health, can only be tackled on a global basis. Is there anyone who's off-limits this year?  It’s a huge challenge. We want to have all actors there, but there are three countries we have excluded: Russia, Iran, North Korea. We didn’t invite official representatives of Russia because we don't want the Munich Security Conference to serve as a podium for Russian propaganda. Iran was always a challenge by denying the right of existence of Israel, and violating international law by going into the direction of a nuclear weapon. When the nuclear agreement was being negotiated, my predecessor always chose to invite [them], but now after violations of international law and the brutal attack of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and police against their own population, weno longer have any standing invitations forIran. Where will we be on the Ukraine heavy weapons deliveries issue by the time of the conference?  I cannot put on the agenda Germany-bashing for not moving fast. But we are in for the long haul. We are in this together. Ukraine is defending NATO member states, Europe, freedom and liberty. This will then maybe serve as a catalyst for future decisions to happen a bit faster. We will have a very strong U.S. executive and legislative delegation, German, Ukrainian and European participation. Does Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives affect your “trans-Atlantic to-do list?” We sometimes read about Republicans being reluctant to allow the government to continue its spending to support Ukraine. We also had the famous withdrawn letter of the left-wing Democrats. So, now we want to see Republicans in the codel confirm the positions (taken in the past) by John McCain, Lindsey Graham. We asked them also to bring some of the new senators or new members of the house so maybe we can help to actually brush this off a bit. What risks are people underestimating as we look forward this year, and five years ahead?  China is watching very carefully what happens with Ukraine. And we have heard what President Xi said in his speech at the 20th Party Congress: We will take over Taiwan, and if need be, we will use military means. So we don't have to guess, it was very clear. At the same time, I'm very happy that the Chinese agreed to attend Munich and that we keep them in discussions. Let’s see if we can’t find some common ground zone for foreign policy. We are addressing another challenge directly by inviting the Global South. The Russians and the Chinese are trying to spread different narratives, and we want to convince people that the rules-based international order, the U.N. charter, is what everybody should be after. The final challenge is more difficult: the question of resilience. I do think that Putin continues to believe that we Europeans are decadent. He thinks that he is more resilient than we are. And they put their money on a new Republican government in a couple of years, where maybe Ukraine is not on top of the agenda, or the budget. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS WESTERN SOVEREIGNTY INCURSIONS The Chinese surveillance balloonis part of a wider pattern that extends beyond balloons, or indeed, surveillance. Take, for example, Russia’s efforts to poison not only its enemies, but civilians who happened to be in the way, in the U.K., or its election interference efforts. Likewise, China does more than float balloons or engage in espionage. China has been running police stations inside Western countries. Iranian agents make regular plans to harass and kidnap journalists critical of the regime including in the U.S. and U.K. The Saudi state murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul and tried to cover up the crime. North Korea engages in vast transnational criminal activity: “The criminal sector may account for as much as 35-40 percent of DPRK exports and a much larger percentage of its total cash earnings,” per former State Department official David Asher. The core of North Korean criminal activities are narcotics production and sales, and currency counterfeiting. HEALTH — AUSTRALIA LEGALIZES PSYCHEDELICS FOR MEDICAL USE: Australia has become the first country in the world to legalize the use of psychedelics such as MDMA and magic mushrooms as medicine. CLIMATE — INDONESIAN ISLANDERS SUE SWISS CEMENT MAKER OVER CLIMATE IMPACTS: A new strategic litigation front may be opening up.Four residents of the Indonesian island of Pari have filed a claim against Holcim, the world’s second biggest cement maker, in a Swiss local court, demanding compensation for localized climate impacts, and that Holcim reduce its carbon emissions faster than planned. The claimants say their island has lost 11 percent of its surface area in recent years due to rising sea levels. BY THE NUMBERS New Morning Consult data reveals public goodwill toward foreign-owned business operations remains strong despite pervasive pro-tariff sentiment. The data is part of a new geopolitical risk report tracking geopolitical sentiments in 18 countries. When asked if the government should take more action to ensure that goods sold in their country are made in America, 69 percent of Americans agree. Across all developed economies surveyed, 77 percent agree that workers should have more labor protections. GLOBETROTTERS BERLUSCONI THE MUSICAL: The stage show based on the life of the Italian mogul and former prime minister opens in London in March. BILL GATES VS. ELON MUSK: Bill Gates damns rival Elon Musk with faint praise. THE LIFE STORY OF KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: CBS 60 Minutes took a deep dive into the 50-year career of the International Monetary Fund chief. Read two profiles of Georgieva by Global Insider: The most powerful woman in Washington not named Nancy (2019) Europe’s Chief Operating Officer (2015) KLEPTOWATCH ADANI WEALTH LOSS CALCULATOR: Adani companies have shed more than $100 billion over the past two weeks: Gautam Adani himself is no longer Asia’s richest person, shedding around $80 billion in wealth in recent weeks. THE PRICE OF A U.S. AMBASSADORSHIP: So you want to be a U.S. ambassador? Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer explains you have two options: forge a career devoted to public policy or “have money. Lots and lots of money.” Gramer looks at how much the top job in Switzerland, Canada, the United Kingdom, Argentina and Kenya cost U.S. President Joe Biden’s appointees. HOW TO CATCH A DICTATOR: Mark Leon Goldberg interviews Reed Brody, a veteran war crimes prosecutor and author of the new book “To Catch a Dictator: The Pursuit and Trial of Hissene Habre,” on his Global Dispatches podcast (Hissene Habre was the brutal dictator of Chad from 1982 to 1990, when he was ousted in a coup and fled to Senegal.) MOVES Where Kevin McCarthy's detractors in the U.S. House of Representatives landed. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese will leave the White House this month. Adrian Monck is leaving his role as head of communications at the World Economic Forum. He thanked forum founder Klaus Schwab in a note to staff. Dylan White is promoted to be NATO’s new Head of Press and Media and Deputy Spokesperson. Varun Sivaram, a senior adviser to climate envoy John Kerry will become senior vice president for strategy and innovation at renewable energy giant Ørsted. Marc Lemaître has been appointed Director-General of the European Commission's Research and Innovation department, which administers more than $150 billion in research funds. DIED Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a coup and led Pakistan into support for the U.S. war in Afghanistan, died aged 79.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     BRAIN FOOD BOOK: Defeating the Dictators, by Charles Dunst. BOOK: The Aftermath: The last days of the baby boom and the future of power in America, by Philip Bump. PODCAST: Democracy! The Podcast is back for a second season. It’s a Ukraine-focused four-part miniseries hosted by ex-diplomat Adrienne Ross.Guests include Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko, the head of President Zelenskyy's Anti-Corruption Task Force Oleksandr Novikov, and Nobel Prize Laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk. SHORT READS  Does the Department of Commerce need its own intelligence agency? The U.S. already has 18 Intelligence agencies. How rappers are strengthening the MAGA movement, from The Economist. Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Brook Hayes and producer Hannah Farrow SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook | Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence   Follow us

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