Third encounter of the close kind

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Feb 13, 2023 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we explore the bonanza of names rumored to be mulling an unexpected run for mayor of Canada's biggest city. Plus, NORAD identified (and eliminated) a flying object over Canada. Also, we talk LNG with a potential exporter. DRIVING THE DAY THIRSTY TIMES — Toronto Mayor JOHN TORY hasn't yet formally resigned, but already the eventual race to replace him at city hall is crammed with potential high-profile candidates. Three days after the Toronto Star first published the stunning revelations that Tory carried on a relationship with a staffer for much of the pandemic, the mayor still technically has his job. But not for long. Tory announced his intention to resign Friday, and the two defining words of the week around Toronto's Nathan Phillips Square are "orderly transition." As soon as there's a vacancy in the mayor's chair, the city has 60 days to announce a by-election date. — The big question: Who will run? — The weekend's question: Who isn't thinking about running? — Who's in: 2022 runner-up GIL PENALOSA, an urbanist who managed 17.85 percent of the vote when Tory was easily reelected, tossed his hat in the ring over the weekend. — Who's out: Former city councilor JOE CRESSY, a progressive darling known for leaving ideology at the door, isn't taking the plunge. When Cressy left office in 2022 for a job at George Brown College, he wanted to spend more time with his family. He still does. — The jury's still out on a long list of maybes. The Star's ALYSHAH HASHAM and BEN SPURR, and the Sun's BRIAN LILLEY, started working their sources. Plucked from their reporting, and scuttlebutt in our texts and DMs, in alphabetical order: Former city councilor ANA BAILÃO, city councilor BRAD BRADFORD, 2022 third-place finisher CHLOE BROWN, Ontario Cabmin STAN CHO, former city councilor JOSH COLLE, Liberal MP MICHAEL COTEAU, Liberal MPP MITZIE HUNTER, Housing Minister AHMED HUSSEN, former city councilor MIKE LAYTON, Liberal MP JAMES MALONEY, former city councilor and MPP GIORGIO MAMMOLITI, city councilor JOSH MATLOW, and former Toronto police chief MARK SAUNDERS. The Star's EDWARD KEENAN poured cold water all over many of those prospective candidacies. We're keeping an eye on Bradford, an affable east-end Torontonian with cross-partisan appeal, including Tory allies in a left-of-center part of town. — The Ford factor: Of course there's gossip about a designated Ford family member, because this is Toronto and the Ford farm system produces winners. Both Premier DOUG and his nephew MICHAEL are, seriously or not, on the tongues of whisperers. Doug ran for mayor and lost to Tory in 2014 before vaulting to Queen's Park in 2018. Michael worked his way from school trustee to councilor before joining his uncle in 2022. Playbook has seen no credible evidence of legit Ford interest. But until they definitively rule it out, people will talk and talk and talk. THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE — This week's burning question on the Hill is all about the object shot out of the Yukon sky on Saturday by an Alaska-based F-22 fighter jet. As in, what exactly was shot out of the Yukon sky? Whatever it was, the object was the third downed by an American jet in the space of a week. The first, which sailed over western Canada and much of the U.S. for several days, was a small jetliner-sized object carried through the air by a balloon. The Chinese government claimed it was a wayward weather balloon. [Insert raised-eyebrow emoji.] Little is publicly known about the second object, except that it was eliminated in Alaskan airspace and the approximate size of a small car. — The official word: At a Saturday news conference, Defense Minister ANITA ANAND described the third partially identified flying object as "small" and "cylindrical." Anand elaborated only slightly on those descriptors. "From all indications, this object is potentially similar to the one that was shot down off the coast of North Carolina, though smaller in size and cylindrical in nature," she said. Minutes later, Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE used the word balloon. "The instructions that were given to the team was whoever had the first best shot to take out the balloon had the go-ahead," he told reporters. In a brief Sunday morning statement, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU didn't repeat Eyre's more specific description. Shortly after, Trudeau boarded a flight to Yukon — a previously planned trip that included a Liberal fundraiser in Whitehorse. U.S. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER told ABC News on Sunday that national security officials believe the second and third objects were balloons, POLITICO's OLIVIA OLANDER reported. — Great Lakes theater: An F-16 fighter jet downed a fourth object over Lake Huron on Sunday. This one, flying at 20,000 feet, was shaped like an octagon. NORAD commander Gen. GLEN VANHERCK did not describe the second, third and fourth objects as balloons: "I'm not able to categorize how they stay aloft.” — Budget priorities: Tory MP MICHAEL CHONG questioned Canada's ability to defend its territorial sovereignty. Anand announced last June that Ottawa would spend C$4.9 billion over six years on continental defense — and C$40 billion in the next two decades. That's apparently not fast enough for PIERRE POILIEVRE, who fired off a Sunday night statement that claimed Canada "lacks effective Early Warning Systems to detect this type of incursion into our airspace." The result? Canada is "more vulnerable to foreign aggression." Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is busy prepping her annual budget. Every minister wants their priorities to win funding. Will Anand's file climb the list? TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Yukon for a second day. — Canada's premiers are meeting to trade thoughts on the federal health-care funding proposal pitched to them last week by PM Trudeau. 9 a.m. Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Montreal for Scale AI's announcement of the "most significant financing round since its creation." 9 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Yukon Premier RANJ PILLAI. 9:30 a.m. Trudeau will tour a tech and startup incubator and meet with local entrepreneurs. 10:10 a.m. Trudeau will hold a media availability. For your radar NEW ELECTORAL MAP: COMPLETE — The federal commission tasked with redrawing Ontario's federal electoral districts published its report Friday following its tabling in the House of Commons. — What's next: MPs are busy scrutinizing each province's report at the procedure and House affairs committee. They have the opportunity to raise objections. The committee has already approved the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island reports without objection. THE BUSINESS CASE — Questerre Energy's board chair, a Norwegian named BJORN INGE TONNESSEN, visited Ottawa last week with a blunt message about his company's ambition for Canadian liquefied natural gas exports to Europe. "We are here to say that Prime Minister Trudeau is wrong," Tonnessen told Playbook while he was in town. — Flashback: When German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ visited Canada last August, Globe and Mail reporter STEVE CHASE asked the PM at a Montreal press conference about the prospect of LNG exports to Europe in the next five years. We've bolded the lightning rod in Trudeau's response. "There are a number of potential projects, including one in St. John's and some others, that are on the books for which there has never been a strong business case because of the distance from the gas fields, because of the need to transport that gas over long distances before liquification," he said, referring to gas deposits in western Canada. Trudeau acknowledged the "new context" — i.e. the war in Ukraine — could make a business case for LNG exports as European markets search for alternatives to Russian energy. But the damage was done. The PM's critics howled. — Who needs the west? Questerre is sitting on large LNG deposits in Quebec about 25 kilometers from the port of Bécancour on the St. Lawrence River. Tonnessen says the company could be exporting LNG by 2025. Save for one hitch. — Stranded: Quebec has banned oil and gas development in the province. Questerre is seeking compensation from the province for its marooned resources. — Evolving rhetoric: Quebec's finance minister, ERIC GIRARD, hinted at a shift in thinking during a radio interview last July. Asked about a different LNG proposal, Girard appeared to suggest an openness to projects with firm commitments from customers that would replace coal or oil — and environmentally responsible operations. Tonnessen claims his company ticks those boxes in Quebec. He's "feeling more and more positive" about his company's prospects these days. He came to Ottawa in search of customers. — Meeting list: Tonnessen wasn't connecting with federal policymakers in Ottawa. He didn't seek out a single minister, staffer or senior bureaucrat. The Norwegian instead lined up sitdowns with diplomats at "several European missions," including a handful with coasts on the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Tonnessen declined to get more specific, but noted the meeting-mates also repped landlocked nations. — What's next: Tonnessen is back in Norway. But he won't be gone too long. The board chair plans to return to Canada in the spring. MEDIA ROOM — What KATIE TELFORD wants you to read: Trudeau pushing softer approach to temporary visas, with less focus on risk of overstaying — CHANTAL HÉBERT wonders if the fed-prov health-care funding negotiations might test the Liberal-NDP confidence deal. — TVO's STEVE PAIKIN writes a letter to JOHN TORY. — The Writ's ÉRIC GRENIER posted fresh analysis this morning of Alberta's provincial electoral map. Grenier argues that RACHEL NOTLEY's New Democrats could win the election even if they lost the popular vote. (The post is a polite rebuttal to POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE FOURNIER's recent analysis.) PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here’s our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Rinse and repeat: ‘Canada has a role to play.’ Other headlines for Pro readers: — Against ‘Buy American,’ Trudeau ministers make their case in D.C. — Biden administration grants $2B loan for electric vehicle battery materials. — Interior floats engineering fixes for a shriveled Colorado River. — House Dems urge Raimondo to set high labor standards for CHIPS money. — Republicans investigate SEC role in Bankman-Fried arrest. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to ROBERT FULFORD, born in Ottawa on this day in 1932. Former MP CORNELIU CHISU also celebrates today. Spotted: Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, reminding everyone he can pack a banquet hall outside of a leadership race. He was at Windsor's Caboto Club on Saturday … Elections Canada records of Poilievre's January fundraiser in Montreal, revealing Tory former leadership candidate ROMAN BABER was in the House. Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS, gathering with Liberals in Calgary (h/t SABRINA GROVER). Also in the room: SACHIT MEHRA, a candidate for party president at the spring convention … Fellow candidate MIRA AHMAD was in Mississauga. Ottawa Centre MP YASIR NAQVI, exploring a potential run for the provincial Liberals with a visit to Kitchener-Waterloo. And Hamilton. Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, in the Greater Toronto Area. She headlined a Feb. 9 fundraiser in Vaughan–Woodbridge; checked in with the Italian-Canadian and Ahmadiyya communities in Vaughan; met the Toronto Carpenters Union at the College of Carpenters and Allied Trades; sat at a Toronto board table with women business leaders convened by RONA AMBROSE; stopped by a Brampton business incubator and Toronto Metropolitan University cybersecurity program; dined alongside Brampton MPs; met Tamil constituents in Brampton; and paused for a photo with Liberal MP MANINDER SIDHU's family. RODGER CUZNER’s instagram: hacked … JAGMEET SINGH's wonky math, flagged by Twitter … Canada's disaster assessment team, on the ground in Turkey. Movers and shakers: Cardinal THOMAS COLLINS retired as Archbishop of Toronto on Saturday. Pope Francis appointed Bishop FRANK LEO as Collins' successor. — Another shuffle: As ministerial chiefs of staff continue to shift gigs, the PM announced a senior bureaucrat shuffle on Friday. Trudeau named new deputy ministers for justice, environment, transport and agriculture. HEATHER JEFFREY is incoming president of the Public Health Agency of Canada. Media mentions: DYLAN SHORT has exited Postmedia to work for AllSaskatchewan … ADRIAN CHEUNG is joining the Globe to work as the senior producer on the Decibel pod. Farewells: The late HAZEL MCCALLION is lying in repose at Mississauga City Hall. The public can visit between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. today. Members of the public can sign an online condolence book. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. On the Hill — Find the latest House committee meetings here. — Keep track of Senate committees here. 11 a.m. The House heritage committee meets to hear from two department witnesses from Canadian Heritage for a briefing about a government contract linked to LAITH MAROUF with the Community Media Advocacy Centre. 11 a.m. The standing joint committee for the scrutiny of regulations meets to elect a joint chair. 11 a.m. The House environment committee meets to continue taking Bill S-5 through clause-by-clause consideration. 11 a.m. The House public accounts committee meets with the company of seven department officials from fisheries and oceans, public works and the auditor general to discuss an audit of Canada’s Arctic waters surveillance. 11 a.m. The House international trade committee will hear from two Export Development Canada executives about ESG related to MPs’ study of Canadian mining firms abroad and human rights considerations. 3:30 p.m. Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will be at the House industry committee to take questions about his mandate. Also appearing before MPs: Industry Deputy Minister SIMON KENNEDY. 3:30 p.m. The House justice committee meets to continue its study of extradition law reform. 3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee meets to continue its study of a national strategy for veterans employment after service. 3:30 p.m. The House operations committee will hear from other expert witnesses on McKinsey contracts. Procurement Ombudsman ALEXANDER JEGLIC is up in the second hour. 4 p.m. Ex-Calgary mayor NAHEED NENSHI is a witness at the Senate human rights committee as senators continue their study of Islamophobia in Canada. Liberal MPs IQRA KHALID and SAMEER ZUBERI are also witnesses, as well as representatives from B’Nai Brith Canada. 6:30 p.m. Food price inflation is on the agenda again for the House agriculture committee. — Behind closed doors: The House fisheries committee meets to review a draft report; the House Indigenous committee meets to talk about “committee business”; the House citizenship committee meets to review a copy of MPs’ study of conditions faced by asylum-seekers; the special committee on Canada-China relations meets to review a draft report; the Senate national security committee meets to review issues related to Arctic security and defense; the Senate official languages committee meets to talk about “future business.” TRIVIA Friday’s answer: The Bank of Canada received 26,300 nominations when it invited the public to nominate a woman to appear on the front of a regularly circulating bank note. Then-finance minister BILL MORNEAU chose civil rights activist VIOLA DESMOND. “Desmond’s own story reminds all of us that big change can start with moments of dignity and bravery,” Morneau said in 2016. Read her story here. Props to ZOIE SUTHERLAND, TED FRASER, ROB LEFORTE, PATRICK HART, CHRISTOPHER LALANDE, AMY BOUGHNER, LAURA PAYTON, BARRE CAMPBELL, ALLAN FABRYKANT, MARC LEBLANC, ANNE-MARIE STACEY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, NANCI WAUGH, JOHN DILLON, MORGAN LARHANT, JOANNA PLATER, TED FRASER and ANDRÉ BRISEBOIS. Today’s question: Who said: “I’m sorry we still need a month set aside simply to remember the contributions of African Canadians. I will be a happy man when we no longer need it. But I remember how proud I was to stand up in the Senate of Canada and received unanimous approval from my colleagues for my resolution authorizing the Parliament of Canada to officially approve the special month.” Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and David Cohen. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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