World's climate goal is slipping away

Presented by Evergreen Collaborative and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council): Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Feb 02, 2023 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Presented by Evergreen Collaborative and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) Left to right: Josh O'Connor/USFWS, Martin St-Amant/Wikipedia, Don Becker/USGS Scientists have called it: The world has blown its shot at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius — the line between really bad and really, really bad. A new report from the University of Hamburg concludes that keeping warming below 1.5 C is “currently not plausible,” though a less ambitious target of 2 C could still be within reach. But even that would require countries like the U.S. doubling down on efforts to cut carbon pollution and put them in motion yesterday, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Chelsea Harvey. That’s not the message you’ll hear trumpeted by world leaders who — hesitant to declare the 1.5 C target a total failure — are pushing governments to do everything they can to cut their climate pollution. Yet as Chelsea wrote late last year, “many scientists privately believe the world has already hit the point of no return. And some say it’s time to make that message public.” What this means: If (or when) the world warms past 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, expect extremely hot days, large-scale drought, loss of entire ecosystems, species die-off, rising sea levels, food insecurity, loss of habitable land, forced migration and more extreme weather disasters — all of which increase annual fatalities and compromise public health. The world has already warmed by more than 1 C since preindustrial levels. Doubling that could bring planetary catastrophe.That’s why U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned during last year’s climate summit in Egypt that “we are getting dangerously close to the point of no return.” Still, dramatically and quickly slashing carbon pollution will reduce the severity of this reality. So what’s getting in the way? The report, known as the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, looked at factors that affect the world’s ability to meet the Paris climate accord’s target of keeping warming “well below” 2 C. These include direction from the U.N. regional initiatives, existing regulations, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestments and consumption patterns. While some of these are driving a reduction in greenhouse gases, not one is moving aggressively enough to achieve “deep decarbonization” by 2050, the report finds. And two factors are actively impairing the global effort: corporations and the amount of energy, food and other materials the world produces and consumes. “The majority of companies are still not responding adequately to support decarbonization,” the report found. Time to prepare: While the report stresses the need to more aggressively slash planet-warming pollution (it’s not all-or-nothing; every bit of emissions reduction helps), it also recommends that policymakers recognize that the world is warming — and take decisive actions to adapt to that change, such as fortifying vulnerable structures and planning for mass migration.   It's Thursday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. A message from Evergreen Collaborative and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council): The U.S. can run on 100% clean electricity by 2035. While the Inflation Reduction Act was a huge step, our leaders must go further, faster to put our clean energy commitments within reach. Read our new report to find out immediate actions President Biden, EPA, FERC, state leaders, and others must take to stay on track.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Gloria Gonzalez breaks down how Puerto Rico’s move toward privatizing its power system is casting a shadow over its renewable energy goals.   A message from Evergreen Collaborative and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council):   Power Centers A fuel truck is seen driving south along the trans-Alaska pipeline, between the Yukon River and the Arctic Circle. | Barry Williams/Getty Images Drill, Biden, drill An $8 billion oil and gas project in the Arctic sits on a knife's edge, as the Biden administration weighs whether to approve it despite fierce environmental opposition, write Heather Richards and Niina H. Farah. The government's final review of the project embraced a constricted version that would still allow drilling of more than 200 wells, but White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre insisted that "no decision has been made on this." Kerry's carbon offset gambit Climate envoy John Kerry made a bet last year that companies would pony up billions of dollars for carbon credits that carry the State Department’s watermark, writes Jean Chemnick. But the program assumes companies will buy carbon credits that could cost far more than what’s already available on the market. Oil price cap EU countries failed to strike a deal on a price cap for Russian oil products, and the deadline for settling one is just days away, writes Charlie Cooper. The European Commission is pushing for a price cap of $100 per barrel on products like diesel, but Poland and the three Baltic countries have pushed for lower caps. in other news Oil ban: The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors unanimously passed an ordinance to ban new oil wells and phase out drilling over the next 20 years. Stove wars: Cleaner, healthier gas burners were developed decades ago. Why aren't they available?   JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. An electric vehicle charges at an EVgo fast-charging station. | Paul Sancya/AP Photo A new study estimates the United States will need more than 1,000 big charging plazas, at a cost of up to $1.3 billion, to stand up a basic charging network on interstate highways. After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, California has an answer for the six other Western states sharing the Colorado River: Get lost. Dozens of environmental groups are pressing General Motors Corp. and other truck makers to leave an industry coalition that has opposed federal regulation of truck emissions. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading. A message from Evergreen Collaborative and NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council): Decarbonizing the power sector is the linchpin to President Biden’s climate commitments. Our latest report breaks down the immediate actions we must take to keep our commitments within reach while creating jobs in states across the country. Read the report to learn the role agencies like EPA and FERC, increased state leadership, and effective implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act will play in paving the way for 100% clean energy.     LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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