How Trump’s indictment reshapes the GOP primary: A timeline

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Jun 09, 2023 View in browser   By Calder McHugh and Charlie Mahtesian Presented by In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Justice, stacks of boxes can be observed in the White and Gold Ballroom of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla. | U.S. Department of Justice via Getty Images SCHEDULING ISSUES — After Donald Trump’s latest indictment dropped late Thursday evening, most of his top 2024 rivals trained their sights on the Department of Justice, not the former president, calling the charges politically motivated overreach. It was a predictable gambit for a field of candidates that is always attuned to the political risks of alienating Trump’s loyal base — or provoking the ire of Trump himself. Next comes an extended balancing act on an issue that is now likely to shape the course of the primary. Here are some key dates — and possibilities — to watch as the Republican primary unfolds and Trump’s legal jeopardy intersects with the campaign: August 2023: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is expecting a grand jury to unseal indictments at some point in the first three weeks of August. Willis’ office has spent the better part of two years investigating whether Trump meddled in the 2020 election in Georgia and there are signs the Fulton County investigation could lead to another Trump indictment. If so, the first GOP presidential debate — scheduled for August 23 — would take place just days after the president is indicted in a third criminal case (from the Manhattan DA, special counsel Jack Smith and Fulton County DA). The issue would be unavoidable in the debate — whether or not Trump appears on stage. If he chooses to participate, his rivals will have an opportunity to project strength by confronting Trump directly on his legal troubles — or come to his defense. A debate in the shadow of another set of indictments will also offer a unique chance to make the case for why the party cannot nominate Trump — or it might incentivize a struggling candidate to play to the base by calling on the field to pledge to pardon Trump. Early to mid-January 2024: The still-to-be-scheduled Iowa Republican caucuses. Between the caucus results and exit polling, this will provide the first real evidence of the extent to which Trump’s considerable legal entanglements are dogging him with GOP voters — if they are damaging him at all. March 12, 2024: The Georgia primary. By this date, the early states will have delivered their verdict. Super Tuesday will have taken place a week earlier and the GOP field will be narrowed considerably. Georgia’s contest will get enhanced scrutiny in part because it could take place with Trump under indictment in Fulton County, but also because of the destabilizing role he’s played in state GOP politics since he lost the state in 2020. Just two years ago, the state delivered a massive repudiation to Trump in its GOP primary election, marked by the victories of two popular Republicans whose careers Trump tried to end: Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. March 19, 2024: The Florida primary. A critical date on the Republican calendar and possibly a decisive moment in the showdown between the two Florida residents running for the nomination — Gov. Ron DeSantis and Trump. If Trump were to win the primary here, it raises the prospect that the GOP nomination could be sewn up before any Trump cases go to trial (more on that timeline in a second). March 25, 2024: The trial date set by a state judge in New York for Trump’s Manhattan criminal case. July-August 2024: One of the biggest questions hanging over this timeline is when the Florida case would go to trial. Most federal cases go to trial between 12 and 18 months after an indictment. This would plausibly place a Trump trial in the classified documents case sometime around next summer, when he might either be the de facto GOP nominee or the actual nominee. If the trial does open in the summer, it would serve as an uneasy backdrop for both party conventions — the GOP convention goes first in mid-July, followed by the Democratic convention in late August. According to legal experts, a judge may well be reluctant to schedule a trial of such magnitude while Trump is in the midst of running for president. The issue is further complicated by the prospect that Trump may attempt to undermine the legal process if he is elected in November. Not everyone agrees that it will take 12 months to get Trump to trial, though. Law professor Jeffrey Swartz, a former Miami-Dade County judge and assistant state attorney, argues that Trump’s trial could be wrapped up by the end of 2023, before the start of the Manhattan trial. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at cmchugh@politico.com and cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh and @PoliticoCharlie. A message from Citi: Doing business abroad can be complicated and costly, especially at the beginning, so it's worth taking a look at how some key players are doing it. Citi, for example, is well-positioned to take advantage of evolving global trends with an extensive, worldwide network that's paired with local expertise in 95 markets. With that kind of network available, Citi can help connect today's ideas with tomorrow's opportunities. Learn More.   What'd I Miss? — On heels of debt fight, House GOP rolls out tax-cut package: Just days after Washington’s bitter fight over raising the debt limit, House Republicans are calling for billions in new tax cuts. GOP lawmakers unveiled a plan today that would offer a range of benefits to big businesses, small firms as well as millions of average Americans. A cost estimate was not immediately available, but Republicans are sure to take slings over the likely budget impact, coming so soon after the debt battle in which they decried federal red ink. — Santos fights to conceal identities of people helping him remain free while under indictment: Rep. George Santos is seeking to keep private the identities of the people who guaranteed his bail bond by appealing a federal magistrate judge’s ruling earlier this week that ordered their names be made public. The first-term Republican from Long Island was indicted last month and pleaded not guilty to 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds and other charges. He was released on a $500,000 bail bond — but only on the condition that several individuals, known as sureties, guaranteed the bond, meaning they would be legally responsible for the money if Santos were to flee. — Republicans fail to get top recruit for Wisconsin Senate: A top potential recruit in Wisconsin’s Senate race declined to run — despite a concerted campaign from national Republicans to lure him into the race. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) announced this morning he would not launch a bid against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and would instead remain in the House, where he leads the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. His decision is a blow to top Senate GOP strategists who saw him as their best shot to block Baldwin from a third term.   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.     Nightly Road to 2024 STAYING IN FORMATION — In the wake of Trump’s indictment, his rivals immediately faced the uncomfortable choice of joining the chorus of conservatives who quickly rallied behind Trump, or looking like they weren’t on the side of Republicans at a moment of heightened tribal politics. Those who did speak came mostly to the defense of the candidate dominating them in the polls, reports the New York Times. Republicans, conservative commentators and Trump allies alike ratcheted up pressure immediately to close ranks behind the former president facing charges that emanated from a special counsel appointed by a Justice Department that reports to President Biden. “PEAK WITCH HUNT,” blared a banner headline on Breitbart. A pro-Trump super PAC circulated supportive statements from more than 50 elected officials and conservative figures within four hours of Trump’s announcing his own indictment.   A message from Citi:   AROUND THE WORLD Animal rescuers make their way through floating debris to rescue a dog in the flooded area after the dam collapse in Kherson, Ukraine, Thursday. | Vasilisa Stepanenko/AP Photo INTERCEPTED — Days after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, Ukraine’s security service published what it said was an intercepted call in which Russians admit they were behind the devastating attack, writes Veronika Melkozerova. In an intercepted call, two males with Russian accents — identified by SBU only as two Russian soldiers — speak about how the Russian military wanted to blackmail Ukraine by attacking the dam, but things did not go according to plan as the waters of the Dnipro River spilled across the region, flooding dozens of settlements and destroying ecosystems. “It wasn’t the Ukrainians who blew up the dam. It was our sabotage group. They wanted to scare people with this dam [attack]. It didn’t go according to plan,” says one of those identified as a Russian military officer. “This dam was constructed in the 1950s, so it quickly collapsed.” During the call, one of those identified as a Russian soldier complained that Moscow-installed authorities in the occupied part of the Kherson region are trying to downplay the catastrophe. SBU said in a statement that the wiretapping confirms Russian saboteurs blew up the dam. RATS ON BOARD — Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo has a message for the rats overrunning the City of Light: Why can’t we be friends? After years spent battling vermin, this week Hidalgo’s administration announced it intends to take a different approach and attempt to achieve a more peaceful state of coexistence with the rodents, writes Aitor Hernández-Morales. “With guidance from the mayor, we have decided to form a committee on the question of cohabitation,” announced Anne Souyris, the city’s deputy mayor for public health, during Thursday’s meeting of the Council of Paris. She added that the group would be tasked with finding the method of dealing with the rats that proved to be both “effective” and “not unbearable” for Parisians. The announcement implies a departure from the city’s 2017 anti-rat plan, a €1.7 million strategy that involved the installation of airtight trash bins throughout the city and extensive use of rat poison in thousands of aggressive extermination operations.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     Nightly Number $172 million The amount of money that Nate Paul — a Texas businessman at the center of the scandal that led to the impeachment of state Attorney General Ken Paxton — was trying to obtain in loans from mortgage lenders in the U.S. and Ireland. The federal indictment of real estate developer Paul today is the result of a yearslong FBI investigation — a probe Paxton involved his office in, setting off a chain of events that led to a separate federal probe of the attorney general and his impeachment and suspension from office last month. RADAR SWEEP NOT SO HAPPY PLACE — Amusement parks are upping their game. The rides are getting more high-tech, the lights are flashier and the drops are bigger. But that’s not an ideal innovation for a growing cross-section of patrons who are prone to motion sickness or have trouble with bright or flashing lights. For thrill seekers who love amusement parks — even though they might sometimes make them sick — some of these changes are making the experience increasingly untenable. Emily Latimer reports on the highs and lows of the increase in stimuli for Longreads. On this date in 1920: The Republican National Convention begins in the Chicago Coliseum with William Hays, chairman of the RNC, introducing Senator Henry Cabot Lodge before his keynote address. Republicans nominated Warren G. Harding, who won the presidency. | AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. A message from Citi: Doing business abroad can be complicated and costly, especially at the beginning. From navigating regulatory complexity across countries to keeping up with evolving trends, it's worth taking a look at how some key players are doing it. Citi, for example, is well-positioned to take advantage of evolving global trends with a worldwide network that's paired with local expertise. With a physical presence in 95 countries, Citi has an in-depth understanding of local regulations, politics, business, and economic conditions in each of those markets — all that's backed by a secure, modern global network. With that, doing business abroad with Citi can ultimately be seamless, and can help connect today's ideas with tomorrow's opportunities. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong   Follow us

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