Is AI ready for climate forecasting?

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Jul 10, 2023 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Two people hold umbrellas to block out the heat as they attend a Women's Tennis Association tournament semifinal match in Berlin in June 2022. | Michael Sohn/AP Photo Weather forecasting is the latest industry to flirt with an artificial intelligence makeover. But experts warn that climate change may pose a distinct challenge for AI weather models, which rely on historical data to produce forecasts, writes Chelsea Harvey. As the planet warms, heat waves and hurricanes are reaching unprecedented extremes. In the past week alone, the world experienced what scientists warned were likely the hottest days in recorded history. Unable to draw on similar trends from the past, AI may not be able to accurately forecast climate-fueled disasters. That could lead to a lack of preparedness for the worst of what nature has to offer. “The question of how AI models will perform in a warming climate is a very interesting one, and to my knowledge hasn’t been explored very thoroughly at this point,” Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist and a scientist at Colorado State University, told Chelsea. AI is coming Researchers are already testing out new AI weather models from private companies. The results indicate a quickly developing technology that could infiltrate meteorology worldwide. For example, the Pangu-Weather model — developed by researchers at a Chinese technology company — forecasts global weather variables like temperature and wind speed up to 10,000 times faster than conventional models, according to a new paper published in the journal Nature. It’s even slightly more accurate than the models used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, one of the world’s leading weather centers. Another AI system, known as NowcastNet, is capable of outperforming many of its leading competitors in forecasting short-term rainfall, one of the trickiest weather variables to predict, according to another paper published in Nature. The climate catch But without historical or predictive data, AI systems may not be able to forecast climate change-fueled events, which are increasingly smashing records. In fact, if presented with entirely new weather conditions, AI models might churn out “highly erratic predictions,” Colorado State University researchers Imme Ebert-Uphoff and Kyle Hilburn said in a statement — a phenomenon observed in other incarnations of AI. That could undermine what meteorologists have worked years to achieve: accurate and reliable forecasting that allows governments to issue public safety announcements and facilitate evacuations with enough time to protect vulnerable populations.   It's Monday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Marie French breaks down why the viability of New York's offshore wind projects is now in doubt. Featured story A black plume rises over East Palestine, Ohio. | Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo Disaster towns and broken promises After a Norfolk Southern train derailed in February and spilled dangerous chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio, the rail company pledged to “make it right.” Top government officials promised to pass new laws and tighten regulations, writes Mike Lee. Tommy Muska remembers the same kinds of promises in 2013. Muska was the mayor of West, Texas, when a fertilizer warehouse exploded in his town, destroying more than 100 buildings and killing 15 people. A decade later, many of those promises remain empty. Congress never took action on chemical safety. Federal regulations on hazardous materials got lost in the transition between presidential administrations. Lawsuits have kept the warehouse from being rebuilt. It’s a familiar story in towns across the United States and Canada. And many worry the pattern will repeat itself in East Palestine.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     Power Centers Power lines are shown on Feb. 16, 2021, in Houston. | David J. Phillip/AP Photo Can the grid beat the heat? As summer heat continues to scorch the nation, the electric system has so far kept power flowing, even in areas like Texas where the grid is notoriously stressed, writes Jason Plautz. But with life-threatening temperatures hitting major cities this week and some of the year’s hottest weeks ahead, the power grid may be tested in new ways. And how this summer unfolds could influence energy policy decisions at the state and federal levels. Permitting talks to resume Congress is returning from a two-week recess with a host of unresolved issues, including how to speed up energy infrastructure permitting, writes Kelsey Brugger. Despite the recent debt ceiling accord, which included a rewrite to permitting laws, lawmakers have insisted they are still working on an even bigger deal. Some informal bipartisan talks have already begun, lawmakers say. But a breakthrough remains far out of reach. Moscow wants to talk nuclear Russia said on Sunday that NATO leaders should discuss conditions at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at their summit this week, as an accident at the facility could affect the territories of alliance members, writes Giovanna Faggionato. Ukraine warned last week that Moscow could be preparing to blow up the nuclear power station, which could lead to a radioactive disaster, after Russian workers were told to leave the facility. In Other News Hazardous chemicals: Residents in Louisiana’s "Cancer Alley" are pushing for stricter emissions standards from the federal government. Soil contamination: Bayou Teche in Louisiana is an epicenter of America's lead cable problem.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Britain's King Charles III (right) and President Joe Biden at Windsor Castle, England. | Andrew Matthews/Pool via AP Climate finance took center stage Monday during President Joe Biden’s visit to Windsor Castle, his first meeting with King Charles III since the British monarch’s coronation in May. Wildfire has long threatened electric grids in the American West. Last week, uncontrolled blazes in the boreal forest of Quebec nearly caused an electric blackout in New England. The European Commission is fleshing out its vision for cleaner cargo transport in a policy grab bag that includes easing rules for larger trucks as well as revamping rail regulations. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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