NATO’s ‘red herring’

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.

Jul 14, 2023 View in browser   By Kyle Duggan, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → A critical look at Canada’s defense spending pledge. → Barbecues, fundraisers and war chests, oh July. → Plus, who's up, who's down. DRIVING THE DAY U.S. President Joe Biden, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius. | AP FREE RIDERS — That’s what The Wall Street Journal called us. The newspaper set off the chattering class when it suggested Canada should be relegated to the kids table or maybe replaced with Poland for failing on its NATO defense spending commitments. For the Conservatives, the editorial was yet another indication of failure by Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU. Foreign affairs critic MICHAEL CHONG tweeted it shows “Trudeau is putting our economy at risk by ignoring primary U.S. interest,” which is national security. Not that the Harper government ever reached the magical 2 percent of GDP spending target, either. Canada’s missed the mark since before it ever had one. “Minister rejects claim Canada getting free ride in NATO,” one Calgary Herald headline screamed, followed by “Nato Shame Not New to Canadians,” in the Ottawa Citizen … in the early 1980s. — Controversial figure: Canadian Forces College defense studies professor PAUL MITCHELL tells Playbook the 2 percent figure is “really a red herring” because the government already can't spend the 1.38 percent it’s budgeting right now. The burning questions for defense policy are more like: how should the Armed Forces fix its chronic staffing issues and how should Canada strategically build out its military? Should Ottawa prioritize being ready for high-tech, air-sea conflicts that might happen in the Indo-Pacific or Arctic, or continental defense in response to climate change and continental disasters? “But none of the parties are particularly interested in talking about the specifics of defense because it's not a vote-getter,” Mitchell tells Playbook. “Nobody really talks about, ‘OK, but what do you actually want the military to do?’ That's the 900-pound gorilla in the room.” — Not going away: Whether 2 percent makes sense or not, NATO has once again made GDP the de facto measuring stick. DAVID PERRY, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, tells Playbook he was “surprised” to see Canada implicitly agree on the “clear and stark” language coming out of this week’s NATO summit on making 2 percent the floor, not the ceiling. “The alliance just doubled down on it,” he said, yet Canada’s spending is headed in the other direction. Perry said this means the government should in the short term worry about capacity, increase the pace of procurement and improve recruiting. Then plan to tackle the target in the long run because “you need both the money in the bank and the ability to actually spend it to achieve that.” — What’s next: All eyes on the long-anticipated defense policy update, announced in the 2022 budget and yet still sitting in the government’s back pocket. — Dust has settled: He may have been prodded by allies behind the scenes. But the PM is back on Canadian soil with the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, behind him. “I didn't see anyone put Trudeau in a headlock for not making sufficient progress towards 2 percent,”writes NPSIA prof STEPHEN SAIDEMAN, assessing how expectations were managed. “Canada did the minimum to keep the criticism down, but perhaps didn't really do enough to set up the Latvia mission for success.” Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with private meetings on his itinerary. — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa, also with private meetings on her schedule. — Conservative leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in B.C.'s lower mainland where he’ll hold a meet-and-greet in Langley and headline a fundraiser at a private residence in Coquitlam. 11 a.m. (8 PST): Poilievre will hold a press conference in Vancouver. 11:45 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will hold a media availability via Zoom following his participation at the 7th Ministerial on Climate Action, a conference co-convened by Canada, the EU and China. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: NATO, now able to claim the Baltic Sea as its own. Down: The minister dealing with the housing crisis, AHMED HUSSEN, for penning an opinion piece in the National Post directing blame away from municipalities ... ahead of a widely anticipated Cabinet shuffle. For your radar FUNDRAISER WATCH — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be in Halifax on Monday for a Laurier Club evening reception at the Westin Nova Scotian. He'll be joined in the room by Sport Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE. — Duly noted: Elections Canada posted the event report for a York Centre fundraiser headlined by Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY on June 13. Forty-two donors filled The Oakwood Hardware Food & Drink, a hip venue in St. Clair West Village. The local Liberal riding association could use a robust election war chest. Incumbent MP YA'ARA SAKS could face a challenge in the next election from ROMAN BABER, the former Tory leadership candidate and MPP for the same area who's seeking the party nomination. — Tory tracker: Conservative leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in B.C.'s lower mainland today, where he’ll headline a fundraiser at a private residence in Coquitlam. Poilievre is attending a July 20 event at a private residence in Muskoka — Port Carling, to be specific. PAPER TRAIL WHO NEEDS TICKETS? — Global Affairs Canada is a fan of bulk buying circus tickets and the like for the purpose of entertaining diplomatic staff and wooing guests. Documents tabled in the House of Commons in response to an order paper question by Conservative MP DOUG SHIPLEY collected government expenses on galas and concert tickets since May 2019. The data was released right before MPs headed home for summer. Expenses billed to taxpayers in the past year include: — C$4,529.54 for 50 tickets to Montreal Symphony Orchestra performances in Vienna, Austria, and Brussels, Belgium. Austrian ministry of foreign affairs representatives and European Commission officials were among the invitees. — C$6,835.31 for 24 tickets to see Cirque du Soleil’s Luzia show. Global Affairs Canada says guests included unnamed CEOs, an ambassador and trade commissions “and guests.” — C$13,148.02 for 100 tickets to see “Come From Away” at the Canberra Theatre in Australia. On the guest list: “All program managers, High Commissioner and guests.” MEDIA ROOM — ROSEANNE ARCHIBALD’s political career with the Assembly of First Nations may be over, but the forensic audit she championed is very much alive, FRASER NEEDHAM reports for APTN News. — National Post's BRYAN PASSIFIUME reports: Governor General expensed $71,000 in limo fees for four-day Iceland trip in 2022. — “Actually, 999 times out of 1,000, enemies prefer to loathe one another in peace and do so,” author and professor CHRISTOPHER BLATTMAN tells SEAN SPEER in conversation about his book, “Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace.”  — The National Observer’s JOHN WOODSIDE writes: Canada ups the ante on climate funding amid fears other wealthy nations will backslide. — Meanwhile, Bloomberg talked to former enviro minister CATHERINE MCKENNA about the making — and marketing — of Canada’s carbon tax. — POLITICO’s SALLY GOLDENBERG and NATALIE ALLISON report that top Republican donors are souring on RON DESANTIS. “Some wealthy donors who’d hoped he could beat DONALD TRUMP are now giving South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT a serious look,” they write. — JOSHUA HIND writes on The Line of the challenges faced by Mayor OLIVIA CHOW: “If the budget is Everest, Toronto’s K2, the second-highest but far more challenging mountain, is bureaucratic inertia.” — Finally today, in a new paper from the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy, LIAM MIDZAIN-GOBIN, CAROLINE DUNTON and ROBERT TAY-BURROUGHS reimagine the relationship between Indigenous nations and provinces as “inter-national” encounters. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: Port strike ends, second guessing begins. In other news for Pro subscribers: — John Kerry vows cooperation, not concessions, in climate talks with China. — Report: Critical minerals supply chain puts speed of energy transition at risk. — EU set to green-light mandate for critical materials deal with U.S. — 10 things you may have missed from the Senate defense policy bill. — Citing bias against Elon Musk, Twitter moves to kill data order. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Minister of Tourism RANDY BOISSONNAULT, B.C. MLA KATRINA CHEN and former Senator JIM MUNSON. Also celebrating today: Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, journalist GRAYDON CARTER, former publisher RUSSELL MILLS, former mayor and MP ED HOLDER. HBD + 1 to MILA MULRONEY.  Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and his wife, GURKIRAN KAUR SIDHU, sharing news that they’re waiting on “baby #2.” Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, telling the Globe’s IAN BAILEY that she suffered a stroke, but has no lingering neurological effects. “It’s best described as a miraculous near miss,” she tells the Globe. SAŠA PETRICIC at the opening of Innocent Bystanders, a show featuring his photographs from around the world.   NDP politician LAURA MAE LINDO, resigning from the Ontario Legislature to work at the University of Waterloo. Former Toronto mayor JOHN TORY, lunching at the Met. Movers and shakers: The B.C. Maritime Employers Association has tapped TERRANCE OAKEY, a partner at ONE Persuasion, to organize meetings with MPs about the company's efforts "to conclude agreements without further disruptions to the supply chain." Tory operative HAMISH MARSHALL, a key data brain on PIERRE POILIEVRE's leadership campaign, is also a partner at ONE. TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: Canada and Colombia established full diplomatic relations in 1953. Props to GEORGE SCHOENHOFER and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Today’s question: On this day in history, the abolition of the death penalty was passed by Parliament, 131 in favor to 124 against. In what year? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Correction: Thursday’s newsletter contained incorrect information about when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland first promised to introduce a digital services tax. Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Emma Anderson.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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