| | | | |  | | By Hans von der Burchard | Follow Hans on Twitter | Send tips and insights to hvdburchard@politico.eu GUTEN TAG and welcome to Global Insider. Hans von der Burchard here, POLITICO’s senior German politics reporter. I’m in Brussels this week, where EU leaders just wrapped up their summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which turned into a diplomatic failure. But before we come to that, let’s kick off with our special interview with Britain’s spy chief, MI6 head (also known as “C”), Richard Moore.
| | On the 55th anniversary of the Prague Spring, Richard Moore, the head of Britain’s secret intelligence service sat down with POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy — a journalist with deep experience reporting from behind the Iron Curtain — to talk about Russia, Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, China and AI in spycraft. Here are his top quotes: On Russians wanting to escape Putin’s regime: “I invite them to do what others have already done in the past 18 months and join hands with us … we look after the people who come and work with us, and of course, our successes are never known.” On Ukraine’s counteroffensive: “Ukrainian commanders, in rather stark contrast to their Russian counterparts, want to preserve the lives of their troops and therefore move with due caution. They have still recovered more territory in a month than the Russians managed to achieve in a year.” On ending the war: “No one wants to humiliate Putin, still less does anyone want to humiliate the great nation of Russia. But the route for them is very clear: Pull all your troops out … It is for Ukraine to define the terms of peace, not us.” On the rise of AI in spying: Moore argued that human intelligence remained crucial to do what “machines cannot do,” while underscoring that MI6 was “experimenting like mad” with AI. “If AI is taken in a direction which is beyond international coordination and developed for evil intent, that is highly dangerous. As we can tell already with the possibilities of generative AI, this will have to be handled with real care.” Click here to watch the full interview, or read Nicholas Vinocur and Anne McElvoy’s write-up of it here. The interview was recorded as part of POLITICO's “Power Play” podcast, officially launching in September. Subscribe or follow the podcast on your favorite podcast app, and you can sign up to receive email alerts every time a new episode goes live.
| | | | UNLEASH THE FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE WITH POLITICO, A 7/20 INTERACTIVE EVENT: Imagine a future where rare genetic diseases are not only treatable, but potentially curable. Where our approach to chronic illness takes a monumental leap forward. That future is already taking shape in the form of next-generation health care treatments such as gene therapy. Join POLITICO on Thursday, July 20 and delve into the burgeoning field of gene therapies, which hold the power to redefine our health care landscape. Are you ready to explore this new frontier in health care? Don't miss this chance to be part of the conversation. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | | WINNING OVER SOUTH AMERICA: European leaders spent hours on Tuesday convincing skeptical Latin American countries to back a joint declaration condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine. The summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States had been a high priority for EU leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, who want to win (back) Latin America as a political and economic partner — leaving that continent less susceptible to China’s or Russia’s influence. Painstaking compromise: In the end, the EU and 32 out of 33 CELAC countries — except Nicaragua — backed a joint statement in which they express “deep concern on the ongoing war against Ukraine” and its global consequences such as food security. Glass half full? Many journalists and observers criticized that, in the face of the realities of Russia’s brutal war of aggression, that’s weak language and a diplomatic failure. My take is more glass half full: Considering that CELAC includes many far-left countries like Cuba and Venezuela, and that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had not long ago raised questions over whether Russia or Ukraine was to blame for the war, the outcome marks some important progress. Note the nuances: Notably, the text says “war against Ukraine” — and not “war in Ukraine,” as some Latin American countries would have preferred — meaning that it leaves little doubt about the condemnation of Russia’s invasion. It also refers to U.N. General Assembly resolutions that condemn Russia’s war with clearer words, and it stresses “the need to respect the sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity of all nations” and the “essential” need “to uphold international law.” Shifting positions: Russian disinformation remains rampant, and some Latin American nations had long shrugged off the war, claiming it’s not their issue and not their job to take a clear position. In that sense, the EU-CELAC statement is important — it shows that all states from the regional organization (except Nicaragua) are willing to take a clearer position. "There's a shift worldwide,” Scholz said after the summit, adding that realization was growing “that Russia is not defending itself against anything but simply invaded its neighbor." More on Latin America’s position on the war in Ukraine here. Lula’s call for peace: Brazil's president stuck to his more ambiguous line on Russia's war against Ukraine on Wednesday. "Neither [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy nor [Russian President Vladimir] Putin want to talk about peace now because they both think they can win," Lula told reporters in Brussels. He agreed, however, that Russian troops must withdraw as part of a peace deal. Story here. Optimism on Mercosur deal: Lula raised hopes on Wednesday that a landmark EU-South America trade deal can be finalized this year. "I’m very much optimistic, for the first time, that we will manage to conclude this agreement," he said. "It would be very good if we got this agreement under the Spanish presidency [of the Council of the EU] and the Brazilian temporary presidency of Mercosur."
| | | | GERMANY’S DEFENSE SPENDING RIDDLE: NATO leaders agreed at their summit in Vilnius last week to “make an enduring commitment to invest at least 2 percent of our gross domestic product (GDP) annually on defense,” and Scholz has made clear that Berlin will keep that promise. He’s just not saying how. The outset: Germany is on track to meet the 2 percent target in the coming two to three years thanks to an extraordinary monetary infusion via a special €100 billion fund for military armament, but once that fund runs out later this decade, Berlin will have to raise its regular budget by about €30 billion (or potentially even more) in order to stick to the 2 percent goal. Problem is, though, that German debt rules currently don’t allow the government to do so. Defense derogation? Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has now raised the possibility that Germany may have to create an exemption from debt rules when it comes to defense. More left-wing politicians from the ruling Social Democratic party, such as Rolf Mützenich, the chairman of the SPD parliamentary group, are saying that the state cannot just spend more money on defense without also doing more on social care. Mützenich reminded Scholz over the past weekend that it’s not his government, but parliament that decides the budget — indicating that there’s a bigger conflict brewing. Watch this space.
| | | | MOVES — SCOTT MORTON OUT: American economist Fiona Scott Morton has withdrawn from her appointment as the European Commission's chief competition economist after a political backlash culminating in criticism from French President Macron about the choice of a non-EU candidate for the role. BRAIN FOOD — Drug trafficker links trigger questions for Spain’s Feijóo: With only a few days to go for the Spanish election, a 30-year-old photo of center-right front-runner Alberto Núñez Feijóo with a Galician narco is a new hot-button issue in the election campaign. More here. — Looming indictment wrenches open the central question of 2024: Is Trump fit to serve? Privately, the fear is that a third indictment, even if it’s the most serious one yet, will once again help Trump. Read more. Thanks to my editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence
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