Checking in on the Senate’s odd couples

A play-by-play preview of the day’s congressional news

Aug 10, 2023 View in browser   By Burgess Everett, Anthony Adragna and Daniella Diaz With an assist from POLITICO’s Hill team. Watch Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) to see if there's any hope for energy permitting reform legislation to make progress in the Senate. | AP WELCOME TO THE CLUB The Senate is all about relationships, and the next 14 months is going to expose a lot of them in the clubby chamber for what they are. Sure, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell help make the Senate run on a day-to-day basis, but what makes it to the Senate floor can very well depend on the work of just two chummy, aisle-crossing senators. Here are four key pairings we’re watching ahead of this fall’s legislative action: — Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.): While Manchin mulls his political future, much of his work chairing the Energy Committee at the granular level occurs in cooperation with Barrasso, the No. 3 GOP leader, a potential successor to McConnell, as well as the ranking member of the panel. The two have tangled at times — Barrasso does not think much of Manchin’s vote for the IRA, for example — but have been able to run the Energy Committee together. The upshot: Keep an eye on these two to see if permitting reform has any chance at all, and also to gauge how much Republicans ice Manchin out as he approaches a reelection decision. — Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): What do you get when your committee’s top leaders are running for president and reelection at the same time? A surprising amount of cooperation. The two have moved to rejuvenate the moribund Banking Committee’s legislative muscles, with Brown chairing the panel and Scott serving as top Republican as they craft deals on fentanyl and CEO clawback legislation. (A cannabis banking bill, however, remains stalled.) The upshot: There are major incentives for both to work together to get bills into law — and create prime campaign trail fodder about how they can even work with that guy. — Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.): This is one of the Senate’s most yin-and-yang delegations. On one side is Baldwin, a pragmatic progressive who keeps her head down; on the other is Johnson, a conservative rabble-rouser with a zeal for battle. In fact, there may be no more ideologically and stylistically different pair representing the same state, so it’s worth keeping tabs on the two as Baldwin seeks re-election. The pair surprisingly worked together to recommend two judicial nominees earlier this year; while up for reelection himself in 2022, Johnson sank a would-be judge and opposed Baldwin’s bill to protect same-sex marriages. The upshot: Somehow both keep winning in the same state with wildly different strategies, speaking to the swinginess — and weirdness — of Wisconsin politics. — Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.): It’s no coincidence this list is filled with Democratic incumbents, and Montana is ground zero for the awkward delegation pair. It’s well-known that Daines is chairing the NRSC while Tester runs for reelection, but what’s less known is how strained the state’s delegation will be a year from now after months of trying to legislate and campaign simultaneously. There's plenty of history: Daines campaigned for Tester’s foe in 2018, Tester helped land Daines’s opponent in 2020, and Daines recruited Tim Sheehy to run against Tester this cycle. The upshot: If Daines and Tester can somehow get to Election Day without calling each other names, they should each win some sort of citizenship award. — Burgess Everett    STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the Golden State’s political power centers, from inside the state Capitol and governor's mansion in Sacramento, to the mayor’s office and City Council and Los Angeles, to the influence of Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner bring you exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game!     GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Aug. 10, where we’re still digesting the surprise overnight announcement of Taylor Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version). ALL EYES ON THE SUPPLEMENTAL The White House is expected to unveil its request for billions of dollars in additional Ukraine aid Thursday, throwing more gas onto a government funding battle that’s just beginning to rage on Capitol Hill. The emergency money to provide Ukraine with weapons, equipment and other assistance in the country’s ongoing war against Russian aggression has driven a rift through the Republican party, with a number of conservatives maintaining deep skepticism over giving the country another dime without a fuller accounting of how assistance has been spent to date. It won’t be a smooth ride: Remember that 70 House Republicans voted to end all aid to Ukraine during an amendment vote on the annual defense policy bill last month. If you’re wondering if that group’s thinking has evolved at all, note that one of those 70, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), replied Wednesday with a simple “No” to a report about the coming request. A possible stopgap sweetener: That said, Ukraine aid does enjoy some GOP support in Congress — particularly in the Senate, where Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the top Republican appropriator, both consider it a top priority. And with hurricane season approaching, the White House request is also expected to include money to replenish rapidly dwindling federal disaster relief. Expect both pots of money to end up attached to a stopgap spending bill meant to avert a government shutdown in October. It’s a familiar move to build bipartisan support for a short-term funding patch, though it will be far from easy given the volatile dynamics inside the House GOP. — Caitlin Emma and Anthony Adragna WHERE DIFI’S NEEDED Attention on Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) health has not dissipated during this August recess — especially after news Wednesday that she fell in her San Francisco home and went to the hospital. Her office called the fall “minor” and gave no indication it would prevent her from returning to Washington next month, but the episode has once again highlighted how, with a slim 51-49 majority, Senate Democrats’ agenda can be upended by the absence of any one senator. September is going to be a particularly tough month for Schumer and Democratic leaders, who face a long to-do list and a need to have every member of their caucus present in Washington and voting to get their priorities over the finish line. Just for starters, Democrats need Feinstein’s vote on: Judicial nominations: The Senate Judiciary Committee felt Feinstein’s absence when she was recovering from shingles for three months and had a much easier time moving would-be judges to the floor once she returned. Another extended absence could halt that work once again.  Supreme Court ethics: Ethics legislation for the high court was approved by the Judiciary Committee last month on a party-line vote — including an aye from Feinstein. While Republicans are almost certain to filibuster the bill should Schumer bring it to the floor, every Democratic vote will be important to show the measure has majority support in the Senate. Funding the government: It’s looking essentially impossible for Congress to pass all 12 appropriations bills before the Sept. 30 deadline, making the aforementioned stopgap a must-pass. Democrats would surely welcome Feinstein’s support to help them get the 60 votes needed to beat a filibuster, as the push for even short-term continuing resolutions has only gotten more arduous over the years.   HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.     HUDDLE HOTDISH The Congressional Management Foundation announced its annual award recipients with Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) winning lifetime achievement awards. Other winners: Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) for constituent services; Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Barry Moore (R-Ala.) for workplace environment; Reps. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) for constituent accountability and availability, and Reps. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and William Timmons (R-S.C.) for innovation and modernization. Schumer stopped in at a Filipino bakery while visiting Queens. Ben Ray Lujan mulled how New Mexico might leave its mark … err, scent… on Air Force One. Joe Biden referred to Lauren Boebert as the “very quiet Republican lady” while hailing the opening of a wind turbine tower manufacturing facility in her district. QUICK LINKS  Top Minnesota Democrats cool to Rep. Phillips' potential presidential run, by Hunter Woodall and Ryan Faircloth in The Star Tribune Lawsuit says Tennessee’s US House and state Senate maps discriminate against communities of color, by Jonathan Mattise in The Associated Press Trump to visit Iowa State Fair with Florida Republicans who endorsed him over Ron DeSantis, by Brianne Pfannestiel and Galen Bacharier in The Des Moines Register Adam Gray announces congressional bid, setting up Central Valley rematch with Rep. John Duarte, by Andrew Sheeler in The Sacramento Bee TRANSITIONS  Got a new gig on the Hill? Leaving for something else? Let us know! TODAY IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is out. AROUND THE HILL *crickets* Trivia WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Michael Herson was first to identify Fat Man as the name of the bomb the U.S. dropped on Nagasaki, Japan on Aug. 9, 1945. TODAY’S QUESTION: Who are the first (and to date only) set of sisters to serve in the House of Representatives? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Daniella and Anthony on X at @DaniellaMicaela and @AnthonyAdragna.   Follow us

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