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Containing Putin... with venture capital

How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures
Aug 07, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Digital Future Daily newsletter logo

By Ben Schreckinger

With help from Derek Robertson

Participants wave the NATO flag at Senate Square in Helsinki, Finland, on April 4, 2023, after the country became the 31st member of NATO. - Finland's blue-and-white Nordic cross flag was hoisted outside NATO headquarters on April 4 as it became the 31st member of the alliance, in the first step of a historic realignment of Europe's defences sparked by Russia's war on Ukraine. Western officials will now turn up the   pressure on their awkward allies Hungary and Turkey to lift their block on Sweden, so it can also join. (Photo by Markku Ulander / Lehtikuva / AFP) / Finland OUT (Photo by MARKKU ULANDER/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images)

The NATO flag flown in Finland. | Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

As NATO’s European members start to build up the continent’s defense technology capacities, they’re turning to an American social technology to get it done: Venture investing.

Last week, NATO announced that 23 of its members had closed a €1 billion venture fund to invest in early-stage startups focusing on technologies like quantum computing and AI in participating states.

European NATO nations have boosted defense spending in response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, and as they do they're taking a page from the American playbook. Silicon Valley and the Pentagon have deepened their ties in recent years amid fears about overreliance on the largest defense contractors, hoping to build on the success of defense-linked startups like SpaceX and Palantir.

Most of the largest venture firms now have at least one partner focused on the national security space, joining a recent crop of niche, defense-focused venture firms like Shield Capital, co-founded by Raj Shah, a former managing partner at the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, which launched its maiden fund last year.

Wesley Clark, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, hailed its embrace of the VC-for-defense trend as a “very smart move” in an interview.

He contrasted his experience commanding NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign in Yugoslavia, when he said Western air power shocked Russia and China, with NATO’s experience supporting the defense of Ukraine, where neither side enjoys overwhelming technological superiority.

Clark cited Russian drone and signals jamming capabilities, as well as old-fashioned threats like landmines, as areas ripe for NATO tech investments as the alliance reorients to counter Russia’s overland invasion of a neighbor.

The NATO fund comes amid serious debates about how Western governments should foster advancements in defense and security tech.

For years, the Pentagon has struggled to integrate AI into military operations, and as DFD reported last week, lawmakers are looking to this year's defense authorization bill to work out some of the kinks.

Some are already concerned about the risks of a closer relationship between defense and a new segment of American industry. In May, Sen. Elizabeth Warren wrote a letter to the Pentagon raising concerns that its Office of Strategic Capital — established in December to funnel investments to favored startups — had already become “too cozy” with private investment firms.

Even among those who welcome tighter cooperation, not everyone sees venture funding as the best use of public money in the defense-tech space. Christian Brose, chief strategy officer at Anduril, a venture-backed firm that develops autonomous defense systems, argues that in an industry where nation-states are often the only buyers, a government has more dollar-for-dollar clout as a buyer than as an investor. That’s because a startup can go out and raise several times as much money from private investors based on a multiple of its revenue from a government contract, he said.

“Don’t invest directly in companies,” Brose, a former staff director at the Senate Armed Services Committee, told DFD. “Act as a customer.“

Clark said allied governments should use both investing and spending to shape technological development.

”I like a blended approach,” he said. “If you see something that has direct application to military technology, and you have confidence in the development team, then perhaps it warrants a direct investment.”

The Netherlands-based fund is set to announce its first investments next month. It will add a 24th limited partner, and additional capital, when Sweden’s accession to NATO, expected imminently, receives final approval.

 

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ai-powered 'pre-bunking'

Is digital technology more of a boon or a burden to people living under authoritarian regimes?

POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi posed that question Friday to Yasmin Green, the CEO of Jigsaw, a company whose entire mission is predicated around technology being a force for good in those states. She made the case to Nahal that AI has a major role to play in democratizing the globe, particularly by galvanizing companies like Jigsaw itself.

She described “the sensation of a crisis, which is also an opportunity, because there are things that we could do to make the internet safer that have previously been too hard,” something that “could enable us, in terms of Jigsaw’s goal, to redesign the workings of the internet.”

What would that actually look like? Green proposed a new approach to handling speech online that she called “pre-bunking”: A strategy to “Alert people to an impending attempt to manipulate them; micro-dose them with the manipulation technique or narrative, and then, the third is to emphatically refute it.,” something she said can be supercharged by AI. — Derek Robertson

ai and labor unions

As the Hollywood writers’ strike continues apace with AI as a major focus of unions’ concerns, the greater labor ecosystem is getting more concerned about the technology.

POLITICO’s Olivia Olander and Nick Niedzwiadek reported in today’s Morning Shift newsletter that the AFL-CIO’s Tech Institute in the past week is bringing its affiliates together to formally talk about artificial intelligence policy and regulation.

The group will meet biweekly to discuss ways they might ensure labor voices are represented in AI regulatory efforts, the institute’s deputy director Arohi Pathak told Olivia and Nick, coming on the heels of a report the organization published recently arguing that AI has the potential to drive inequalities in CEO-to-worker pay.

“There’s unions that are just starting to figure out that this is going to impact them, and are trying to figure out how they bargain for better working conditions under this kind of new economy,” Pathak told Morning Shift. (For more, read January’s DFD edition on what American unions want out of a tech-powered new economy.) — Derek Robertson

Tweet of the Day

To do ... good physics work you do need absolutely solid lengths of time ... If you've got a job in administrating anything ... you don't have ... time. So I have invented another myth for myself—that I'm irresponsible.  I tell everybody, I don't do anything.'-Richard Feynman

THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS

Stay in touch with the whole team: Ben Schreckinger (bschreckinger@politico.com); Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); and Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com). Follow us @DigitalFuture on Twitter.

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