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Aug 11, 2023 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s secret weapon. → Lessons from a political and policy legend. → By special request, MPs on the House finance committee will gather this afternoon. DRIVING THE DAY Anaida Poilievre and her husband, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, in Vancouver in July. | Darryl Dyck l The Canadian Press POUR QUEBEC — The Conservatives are spending millions on a national ad campaign meant to soften PIERRE POILIEVRE's rep for angry rants about Trudeau's Canada. Casual viewers of Sportsnet morning highlight shows get to meet a bespectacled Poilievre — clearly, these ads were filmed before the Summer of Pierre — playing with his kids. ANAIDA POILIEVRE, a political operative in her own right with years of Hill experience, narrates a pair of French and English ads. Francophone Quebecers have taken notice. Anaida speaks the same French as them. Parisian French, this is not. Anyone close to the Poilievres already knew that, but the party is now piping Anaida's fluency into households all over the province. Spanish may be her first language, but Anaida grew up in Montreal and absorbed the idiosyncrasies of the people who surrounded her — leaving barely perceptible clues in her syntax and pronunciation that she was born in Venezuela. Neither Poilievre speaks the same learned French of STEPHEN HARPER or ANDREW SCHEER or ERIN O'TOOLE or any other past party leader whose Anglo roots showed in every stump speech, debate and casual interaction with voters. — Les petites choses: In the French-language version of the ad, Anaida describes herself as Québécoise. In the other official language, she drops the Q-word — a tried-and-true two-solitudes distinction. Anaida also deftly observes that the Poilievre children refer to their dad as papa — the same, she notes, in "français, español and English." One word, two official languages (plus a third). Inteligente. Intelligente. Clever. — A difference-maker: MICHAEL FORIAN-ZYTYNSKY, a Conservative candidate in Montreal in 2019, tells Playbook about the power of fluency. "When I was running, I think it would have made a huge difference in terms of just relating to Quebecers. Not to say that Erin and Andrew didn't make an effort. But when you speak like Quebecers, that's when you truly tap into their hearts," Forian-Zytynsky says. "And that's what I think is going to make the difference." — A Blue wave? Will the Poilievres' linguistic duality sweep a swooning province off its feet? Don't count on it. Or, as political analyst and former party adviser RUDY HUSNY put it, don't plan for it. Husny says the Tories would be smart to manage expectations in Quebec. The party currently holds nine seats out of 78 in the province. Husny pegs a realistic target at 10-12, which would mean picking up the riding now held by Independent MP ALAIN RAYES, as well as a pair of seats once held by former MPs ALUPA CLARKE and SYLVIE BOUCHER. Husny said it was a mistake for O'Toole to shoot for 30 Quebec seats in 2021, and for then-Tory MP Rayes to float the idea of a federal Conservative wave in 2019 to match Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT's landslide win in 2018. — Never stop never stopping: Forian-Zytynsky sees the wisdom in Husny's realism. But he doesn't count out a breakthrough — in part to keep party activists motivated all over the province. Poilievre's team is "looking at that few-hundred-kilometer corridor north and south of Quebec City as the sweet spot that may make or break a Conservative government,"he says. Reminder: Conservatives are gathering in Quebec City next month for a biennial convention. Save the date for Sept. 7-9. Forian-Zytynsky laments the Conservative habit of granting too much autonomy to the campaign team in the province: "They've had their own strategy. They've had their own budget. They've had their own mini-campaign. And I think that's a mistake." A confident French speaker in the leader's office, with a fluent spouse on the hustings, could revamp the way the party runs Quebec campaigns by communicating more seamlessly with operatives, voters and stakeholders, he adds. — Side benefit: Husny says a strong campaign in the second-largest province, aided by a fluent leader with a focused message, would be a morale booster for the party elsewhere. "It's good for the MPs, it's good for the volunteers. It's good for people who believe in the Conservative Party," he says. The not-so-secret weapon in the Poilievre household is on a screen near you. Canadians should expect to hear from her a lot more. IN MEMORIAM Tory strategist Hugh Segal in 1998. | John Lehmann l The Canadian Press HUGH SEGAL, 1950-2023 — GRAHAM FOX met Segal because his dad, BILL FOX, worked with Segal in the Mulroney government and formed a close friendship. But the younger Fox went on to work for the legendary Tory operative, first as press secretary on a 1998 Progressive Conservative leadership campaign and later as Segal's director of communications at the Institute for Research on Public Policy. As legions of fellow travelers share remembrances of Segal, Playbook got on the phone with Fox. This is our conversation, edited for length and clarity. What's the greatest lesson you learned from Hugh Segal? He had a profound belief in the decency and wisdom of citizens. And for him, politics was never about dumbing down. It was a politics that was driven by ideas. That had to be the motivating factor for political activity. He was deeply committed to serious debates on public policy, which is why he was such a great fit at the Institute for Research on Public Policy, and such a great president for that organization. When I decided to put my own name on the ballot a few years later, I like to think that my own way of doing politics was greatly influenced by his insistence that you had to be serious about public policy if you wanted to be successful in politics. Politics is a rough business these days. How optimistic are you that Segal's approach to politics can be the rule, not the exception? I will admit that some days, it's hard to remain optimistic. When he was a candidate for the leadership of the old PC Party, he liked to say that labels were for cans of soup. Politics is about people, opportunity and hope. And the hope part was such an important driver for him. It's unfortunate that it stands out today because it's exceptional. But I remain optimistic that we will find our way back there. I do not think that the animosity and the hyper-partisanship is sustainable over the long term. Maybe that's naive. But I just have to believe that there is a way for all of us to find our way back to politics that's based on the hope that things can be better — the hope that we can actually solve some problems. And that was always how he thought about politics and conducted himself in it. Any other lessons you learned along the way? It would be easy to underestimate just how powerful Hugh's bonhomie and sense of humor was as a tool of political engagement, as a way to disarm what might otherwise have been aggressive disagreements. He always took the issue seriously, but he never took himself too seriously. Humor is an important ingredient in his success. Want to share your Hugh Segal story? We’re all ears.   For your radar ALL BUSINESS — The House finance committee will assemble this afternoon to discuss the economic challenges Canadians and businesses are up against. — The ask: Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and rookie Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ are under pressure from Conservatives and the NDP to extend the repayment deadline on pandemic loans from the Canada Emergency Business Account. Ottawa approved C$49.2 billion in total for CEBA loans. Repayment is due by the end of this year. Valdez told Playbook last week that she’s open to exploring the options. “The impact is massive,” she told ZI-ANN LUM. — Private sector pressure: Industry groups such as the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) have launched a petition to advocate for financial relief for the more than 900,000 small businesses that took out CEBA loans. Only 10 percent of small businesses have been able to repay their loans, according to the CFIB, arguing repayment is difficult because half of businesses “are still making below normal revenues.” Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on vacation in British Columbia. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa for private meetings. 12 p.m. The Canadian Congress of Black Parliamentarians will hold a press conference in the Sir John A Macdonald Building to summarize their historic two-day summit on the Hill. 1 p.m. The House finance committee will meet to discuss “affordability challenges facing Canadians and Canadian businesses.” 1 p.m. Natural resources department officials will deliver an update on wildfire activity. 2 p.m. (11 a.m. PT) Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON is in North Vancouver, British Columbia, to make a wildfire funding announcement with Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT SAJJAN. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, ahead in the polls and backed by a multimillion-dollar ad buy. Down: Canadian news content on Facebook and Instagram. MEDIA ROOM — “Gone are the days of the vaunted, stoic, level-headed Canadian. Now, everyone freaks out,” COLIN HORGAN writes on The Line in a piece advocating for the per-vote subsidy. — From POLITICO’s ANDREW ZHANG: What to know about the dominant Covid-19 EG.5 variant, nicknamed ‘Eris.’  — “Biblical floods. Dying forests. Retreating coasts. Economic turmoil and political unrest” — Maclean’s goes for it with a feature on Canada in 2060: “Here’s what it will look like — and how Canada can get through it.” — On The Hub, economist TREVOR TOMBE writes: “Economic uncertainty in Canada is high. Politicians shouldn’t make it worse.” — The Decibel pod features IVAN SEMENIUK and MADELEINE WHITE on a quest for dark matter, two kilometers underground.  — “Are the federal Liberals cooked? Or not?” Those are the questions of the day on The Big Story pod with DAVID MOSCROP enlisted to help with the answers. PROZONE If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: Ottawa (finally) unveils draft regs to decarbonize grid. In other news for Pro subscribers: — Canada touts plans for clean-grid regs as ‘giant step forward.’ — Washington grapples with AI deepfakes on the campaign trail. — The U.S. wants witnesses to report UFOs. But there's not always a clear way to do so. — U.S. Commerce Department considers ending tomato trade pact with Mexico. — NOAA raises hurricane forecast due to high water temperatures. Playbookers Birthdays: Happy Saturday celebrations to former parliamentarians ANNE COOLS (80!) and SCOTT SIMMS. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: Notice of an Aug. 17 Liberal fundraiser headlined by Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY in Saint-Hyacinthe, Que. ... Notice of a Conservative fundraiser the same night in Hamilton, Ont., headlined by PIERRE POILIEVRE. The Tory leader will also be at a Brampton event on Aug. 19. Musician and MP CHARLIE ANGUS, penning an ode to ROBBIE ROBERTSON … Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH pushing back against Ottawa’s draft clean electricity regulations: “They will not be implemented in our province – period.” Sen. YUEN PAU WOO and Liberal MP TERRY SHEEHAN in Jakarta, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the General Assembly of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly … Government House Leader KARINA GOULD and Government Whip STEVEN MACKINNON, plotting plans for the upcoming session at a Cora restaurant in Gatineau. The Canadian Congress of Black Parliamentarians filling a committee room on the Hill. Movers and shakers: The NDP's NOOR BURKI and JARED CLARKE were elected in provincial by-elections in Saskatchewan on Thursday evening. Saskatchewan party candidate BLAINE MCLEOD won the third seat at play. DAMIEN O'BRIEN, director of parliamentary affairs to Labor and Seniors Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN, starts parental leave today. Canada’s Permanent Mission of Canada to the United Nations’ political affairs team has a new member: ISAAC CAVERHILL-GODKEWITSCH. In memoriam: Former Akulivik mayor ELI AULLALUK has died. He is being remembered in the Nunatsiaq News as “an unapologetically honest and loving man.” He had retired from political life in 2010. TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: Playbook reader JENI ARMSTRONG writes: “The original purpose of the Tent Room was as an indoor tennis court, but I like to imagine former governors general also used the space to learn how to make cotton candy, guess weights, toss rings.” Props to PATRICK DION, TERRY CAMPBELL, RAYLENE LANG, DOUG SWEET, DAMIEN O’BRIEN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAN MCCARTHY, SARA MAY, KATE DALGLEISH, KEVIN BOSCH, KATELIN CUMMINGS, WILL BULMER and LAURA PAYTON. Today’s question: Who signed the deal between Ottawa and Newfoundland and Labrador to create Gros Morne National Park? On the Western Brook Pond boat tour in Gros Morne National Park. | POLITICO Canada Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best . Correction: Thursday's Ottawa Playbook was updated online to clarify that it is the Aga Khan’s foundation that lobbied government. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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