Ukraine’s pitch to corporate America

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Aug 24, 2023 View in browser   By Sam Sutton Programming Note: Morning Money will not be publishing from Aug. 28 through Sept. 4. We’ll be back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 5. Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. QUICK FIX Almost 18 months after Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian officials are still pressing Western governments for any military or humanitarian aid they can spare. But that assistance alone won’t sustain its economy for the long term, Sergiy Tsivkach, the executive director of Ukraine’s government office for attracting foreign investment, told MM. U.S. government support is only available “because American industry is paying taxes,” said Tsivkach. “The time has come for American industry to look at Ukraine – not as a charity project — but as a destination where they can make profits.” That was a difficult sales pitch even before the invasion torched Ukrainian industry and upended global politics. Foreign direct investment in the country whipsawed for more than a decade as investors balanced its considerable agricultural resources and burgeoning fintech sector against significant geopolitical risks and troubling levels of corruption. Ukraine’s earlier efforts to attract outside investment were sometimes characterized by “false optimism” that “this was going to be a straight up moonshot,” former Cargill Chairman and CEO Greg Page said in an interview. Cargill, a Minnesota-based agricultural giant, spent decades building a sizable footprint in the country. Despite its challenges, Ukraine’s low logistics costs, ports, soil quality and proximity to countries with significant grain deficits made it an important market for Cargill — even after its 20 year-old plant in Donetsk became a flashpoint during Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Page now holds a seat on a Center for Strategic and International Studies commission that’s helping Ukraine attract private investment. Tsivkach is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by CSIS in Washington next month to discuss policies to “guide the economic modernization and transformation of Ukraine.” The headwinds for that transformation remain formidable. Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces has proven arduous. Small units – some of which are leaving their U.S.-supplied military vehicles behind to avoid being spotted by Russian artillery — are “battling a few hundred yards at a time, with occasional success,” The WSJ’s James Marson reported from Zaporizhzhia on Wednesday. The slow progress comes as public support in the U.S. for providing more aid has started to fade, particularly among Republicans, according to a recent CNN poll. The grueling counteroffensive and uncertain political climate have inevitably made things “wait-and-see” for many investors considering Ukrainian projects, Page said. “It'd be naive to assume people aren't being more cautious.” To that end, Tsivkach is making the rounds with think tanks and industry organizations across the U.S. and Europe. BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase were enlisted to aid in the development of a reconstruction bank earlier this summer. Tsivkach said government officials are hopeful to have funds available through that project by the end of the year. And Kingspan – an Irish building materials group — is moving ahead with a $300 million construction project, he said. Tsivkach says he doesn’t view U.S. policymakers as much of an impediment in his efforts. “Some political parties [are] trying to exploit this topic in order to get some support, but I'm sure that these arguments will decline and will not find any support — or significant support — amongst the American people when we connect our country's industries,” Tsivkach said. IT’S THURSDAY — Have you had a chance to dig into the private funds rule? Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at ssutton@politico.com.   A NEW PODCAST FROM POLITICO: Our new POLITICO Tech podcast is your daily download on the disruption that technology is bringing to politics and policy around the world. From AI and the metaverse to disinformation and cybersecurity, POLITICO Tech explores how today’s technology is shaping our world — and driving the policy decisions, innovations and industries that will matter tomorrow. SUBSCRIBE AND START LISTENING TODAY.     Driving the day Jobless claims for the week of Aug. 19 will be reported at 8:30 a.m. … The Bipartisan Policy Center hosts an event on rental assistance at 1 p.m. … Most importantly, our Victoria Guida is in Jackson Hole for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the Kansas City Fed conference. Welcome to Wyoming — From Victoria: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who last year bluntly warned that the battle against inflation would cause “some pain,” faces a more delicate task as he once again addresses people across the globe. That’s because his hope now is to avoid pain … “‘The descent is often more treacherous than the ascent of a mountain,’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG and a regular attendee of the exclusive Fed confab. ‘It’s littered with potholes, and they don’t want to trip.’” A little bit softer now — The Labor Department on Wednesday said the number of jobs the economy added in the year ending March 31 will likely be revised down by 306,000. The private funds rule has arrived — SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s overhaul of private equity and hedge fund rules is more aggressive than many Wall Street firms had hoped. It’s also less comprehensive than some progressives and investor advocates had anticipated, Declan Harty and I reported on Wednesday. “They took out the more outrageous or aggressive aspects of the proposed rule, particularly the liability standard,” Gregory Larkin, a partner in Goodwin’s private funds practice, said. “But it’s still a lot.” Just as importantly, while the new regulations are less comprehensive than many institutional investors had anticipated — “Gensler blinked,” Axios’s Dan Primack wrote before Wednesday’s meeting — the changes might not go far enough to stave off a legal battle. Republican Commissioners Mark Uyeda (“arbitrary and capricious”) and Hester Peirce (“ahistorical, unjustified, unlawful, impractical, confusing and harmful”) blasted the rule during Wednesday’s meeting. Asked about the likelihood of a court challenge, Liz Fries — a managing partner at Sidley who leads the law firm’s investment funds practice — told your host that Uyeda and Peirce’s public comments were “signaling words.” “It seems to me that those are the arguments that are going to be made,” she added. Regulatory Corner FDI-think we should have a say in this — Victoria has scoops that the FDIC will debate a proposal from Republican board member Jonathan McKernan that would require a simple majority to approve the sale of a bank with more than $50 billion in assets under the care of the FDIC. “The Board’s failure to vote on the sale of First Republic was an abdication of its statutory responsibility to manage the affairs of the FDIC,” McKernan told Guida. The rent is too damn high (pt. ∞) — Our Katy O’Donnell: “Eight House Democrats on Wednesday joined Senate colleagues in calling on the Biden administration’s top housing regulator to limit rent increases at apartment units backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” Tornado Cash founders busted — Federal prosecutors have charged the founders of Tornado Cash with criminal money laundering and sanctions charges. Treasury’s earlier sanctions against the crypto mixing service had been blasted as overreach by crypto-friendly policymakers like House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), as well leaders at Coinbase and the crypto think tank Coin Center. In the markets Bet you haven’t thought about this in awhile — The WSJ’s Ashley Ebeling: “Americans are taking advantage of higher returns on their Treasury bills and other fixed-income investments. That joy might be dampened when they see their tax bills.” Boom — Nvidia share prices boomed after the company announced that “sales will be about $16 billion in the three months ending in October. Analysts had estimated just $12.5 billion,” writes Ian King for Bloomberg. Bust — Analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipate a stock market correction in the coming months. Don’t look back in anger — Axios’s Andrew Freedman: “BlackRock supported a smaller share of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) shareholder proposals this year compared to years past.” — ICYMI: Our Jordan Wolman and Jasper Goodman: “The Republican crusade against Disney, Bud Light and climate-friendly Wall Street investing practices may be hitting its political ceiling.”   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S TECH & AI SUMMIT: America’s ability to lead and champion emerging innovations in technology like generative AI will shape our industries, manufacturing base and future economy. Do we have the right policies in place to secure that future? How will the U.S. retain its status as the global tech leader? Join POLITICO on Sept. 27 for our Tech & AI Summit to hear what the public and private sectors need to do to sharpen our competitive edge amidst rising global competitors and rapidly evolving disruptive technologies. REGISTER HERE.     Fly Around Probably traveling to Jackson Hole — Bloomberg’s Mia Gindis: “Perhaps it's the inexplicable craving for a day off ahead of the big Labor Day holiday. Perhaps it really is a stomach bug, or that more recent fiend — the coronavirus. And of course, it might just be the blues at the end of summer. Whatever the reason, Aug. 24 is when American workers most often tell their bosses they simply cannot work that day.”   Follow us on Twitter Mark McQuillan @mcqdc Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary Victoria Guida @vtg2 Declan Harty @ @declanharty Eleanor Mueller @eleanor_mueller Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_ Sam Sutton @samjsutton   Follow us

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