A narrowing race to replace DiFi

Presented by Connected Commerce Council: Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Sep 07, 2023 View in browser   By Alexander Nieves Presented by Connected Commerce Council SOCAL SHOWDOWN: The race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein increasingly looks like it’s going to be a SoCal showdown. That’s bad news for Rep. Barbara Lee, the progressive Bay Area stalwart who has, so far, failed to connect with voters less than six months away from polls closing in California’s March primary. Lee, an Oakland icon who’s held her congressional seat for 25 years, is polling at just 7 percent among likely voters, a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released this morning found. That puts her at similar levels of support to long-shot conservative candidates James Bradley and Eric Early, a disappointing metric in a state where fewer than a quarter of registered voters are Republicans. Lee’s Super PAC raised more than $1.5 million in the second quarter and has pushed for her to get more airtime. Still, she’s failed to close a widening gap between her and the two leading Democrats in the race — Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. Schiff currently leads the way with 20 percent support, the poll found, and Porter close behind at 17 percent. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) speaks with colleagues outside the U.S. Capitol May 23, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO The numbers highlight the major structural problem Lee’s camp always faced entering the race: She’s simply not as well known as her Democratic counterparts, both from the far more populous Los Angeles metropolitan area. Schiff, who hails from Burbank, is a regular on the political talk show circuit and one of the most prominent politicians in the nation. He has flourished in his role as the party’s attack dog against former President Donald Trump. Around two-thirds of voters polled said they hold an opinion on Schiff, and he’s tapped into that name recognition to build a war chest of $29.5 million for the Senate race, as of figures released in July – including a staggering $8.1 million haul in the second quarter. Porter, a rising star in the party who’s held onto a competitive Orange County district, raised $3.2 million in the second quarter, and received largely favorable reviews from the 57 percent of voters who offered an opinion on her. Lee is known by fewer than half of likely voters polled, and trails Schiff by 14 points among Black voters, despite being the only Black candidate in the race. She’s hoping to infuse a late burst of energy into her operation, adding Robert Dempsey and Anna Bahr, a pair of Bernie Sanders campaign alums, to her team on Wednesday. Dempsey will serve as her campaign manager, and Bahr is listed as a senior adviser. HAPPY THURSDAY AFTERNOON! Welcome to California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check of California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to anieves@politico.com or send a shout on Twitter. DMs are open!   A message from Connected Commerce Council: Millions of small businesses rely on online marketplaces to reach customers nationwide, track performance metrics and manage logistics. The Connected Commerce Council is making sure they have the tools they need to do it. Learn more.   WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY PELOSI’S PLANS: Is Rep. Nancy Pelosi planning to retire from the San Francisco congressional seat she’s held for more than 35 years? POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin recently spent time in the city with the speaker emerita digging into this question. Pelosi has been reticent on the topic, offering inquiring reporters and the Bay Area political establishment few hints on how long she’ll continue on. That decision will have huge implications, setting off a reshaping of San Francisco’s political leadership not seen in decades. Pelosi didn’t answer the question directly, but offered thoughts on the prospect of leaving office the same time as Feinstein. “Well, let’s just go back about six years and we had Dianne, we had Barbara, we had Jackie Speier, now Jackie is gone, so we’ll see,” Pelosi said, laying out the rationale for another run by invoking the three veteran Bay-area lawmakers who’ve retired or are retiring: Feinstein, former Sen. Barbara Boxer, who stepped down in 2017, and Speier, who left Congress at the start of this year.   SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.     ON THE BEATS MONEY PLAY: Stanford and UC Berkeley’s departure for the ACC will buoy their credit as they escape an imploding athletics conference, Moody’s analysts wrote in a report released today. The California schools risked plummeting athletic revenues after UCLA and USC instigated an exodus from the PAC-12, leaving for higher national visibility and more lucrative media deals in the Big Ten. Still, Cal and Stanford’s exits will likely result in a dip in media revenue compared with past years, after they reportedly agreed to take smaller revenue shares than other ACC members in their first years in the conference, according to the credit rating group. — Blake Jones  TRY DOING THIS IN TEXAS: California would raise taxes on guns and ammunition under a bill heading to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s desk. The state Senate approved a bill today that would impose an 11 percent excise tax on gun and ammunition sales — a breakthrough for a policy that has repeatedly foundered in Sacramento. Despite California’s overwhelming support for gun control, securing the two-thirds votes for a new tax has proved too high a hurdle. But now Assembly Bill 28 looks destined for Newsom’s desk. (It needs a final vote in the Assembly, where it passed back in May.) That creates a conundrum for Newsom: He championed a ballot measure regulating firearms sales and is now pushing to amend gun restrictions into the U.S. Constitution. He enjoys railing against the NRA and aligned judges. But the economically moderate businessman in him tends to resist raising taxes. — Jeremy B. White   A message from Connected Commerce Council:     Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here.     WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY — AFTER ROE: The number of legal abortions in California increased 16 percent in the first half of 2023 compared with the same period in 2020, an apparent sign of a surge in states where the procedure remains legal and available following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. — SEND IN THE TROOPS: Newsom, aiming to help stem the tide of fentanyl coming into California, ordered a 50 percent increase in National Guard troops deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border, which sounds like a lot until you consider that it’s an increase from 40 to 60 actual troops. — LONDON FOG: Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie — a rumored candidate to take on London Breed in the San Francisco mayor’s race — has sent out invitations to an unspecified special announcement on Sept. 26. The invite teases a “new journey” that “aligns with our shared passion and commitment to San Francisco.”   A message from Connected Commerce Council: Millions of small businesses rely on online marketplaces to reach customers nationwide, track performance metrics and manage logistics. The Connected Commerce Council is a non-profit with a single goal: to make sure small businesses have the access they need to the online tools that help them grow. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Katy Murphy @katymurphy POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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