Can a ‘moderate’ Republican win anymore?

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Sep 11, 2023 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez TOP LINE An end-of-summer, off-year special election primary for a safe Republican seat in ruby red Utah was perhaps not on the top of political observers’ list of races to watch this year. But the runner-up in the GOP primary for UT-02 thinks it should be. Becky Edwards, who claimed the moderate Republican lane in the GOP primary for soon-to-be-vacant UT-02 to succeed Republican Rep. Chris Stewart, finished with around one-third of the vote last week, just about 5,000 votes shy of eventual winner Celeste Maloy, a former aide to Stewart and now member-in-waiting. In an interview with Score, Edwards argued that her performance was actually a boon for the near-extinct lane of the GOP — showing that they still remained a part of the coalition that can’t be ignored. Becky Edwards came in second place in the GOP primary for UT-02 last week. | AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File “Voters want overwhelmingly — even in a red state — they want more commonsense, civil, respectful and productive conversations and actions on their behalf,” she told Score following her loss. “I think anyone running in the 2024 cycle has to pay attention to this.” This was Edwards’ second time running for Congress, after a strong but unsuccessful primary challenge to Sen. Mike Lee, an ally of former President Donald Trump, last year. Edwards leaned heavily into her stance as a moderate Republican, but faced attacks for being a critic of Trump and voting for President Joe Biden in 2020. Her loss last week shows the limits for a coalition that might make up roughly a third of the GOP. “I think there is a path,” said Taylor Morgan, a Utah strategist that has worked with both Republican and Democratic campaigns, of moderate Republicans in Utah. “I think Becky's fatal flaw was she was not branded as a practical, moderate Republican. I think Becky was branded as just another [Republican in name only], trying to capitalize on Donald Trump's bad behavior.” Edwards attributed her base to younger and female voters, demographics who may not be as civically engaged in the state. She raised concerns that these blocs don’t feel like they have a place in the Republican Party currently — one that’s more right-leaning in Utah — which could come back to haunt the party in the future. “There has to be a lane for moderate Republicans,” Edwards said. “We have to be a place that can be a political home for people to come to from across the larger tent of Republicanism. The reality is, look at the votes. Look at the votes of this race and see how close this race was.” The next challenge for an anti-Trump Republican in Utah is a big one: Sen. Mitt Romney’s potential reelection bid in 2024. Romney, who said he’ll make a decision about a run later this year, has recently seen his approval rating spike. Still, his standing is better among self-described “moderate” and “somewhat conservative” voters, rather than those who are “very conservative,” and the activists who make up the core of the state party don’t love him. Carson Jorgensen, a former chair of the Utah Republican Party, said the UT-02 race could provide a warning for Romney. “This was a pretty stark reminder that somebody with no money, that doesn't have a big name recognition, that runs through the party apparatus can really make change,” he said of Maloy, who was endorsed by the state GOP. “If you distance yourself from the Republican Party here in the state and don't want anything to do with it, it's going to cost you.” Happy Monday. Happy football season to all who celebrate, and let’s go Jets. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Louisiana primary: 33 Days until the 2023 election: 57 Days until the Republican National Convention: 308 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 343 Days until the 2024 election: 421 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL 2024 WATCH — Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is running for reelection, she said on Friday. The move will likely extend the speaker emerita’s decadeslong career in the House and “freeze her would-be California successors in a longstanding holding pattern,” my colleagues note. Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener launched a campaign-in-waiting earlier this year, in the case that Pelosi retired. He said in a statement on Friday that “it’s a good thing for San Francisco and the nation that she will continue to serve our community.” … Texas state Rep. Carl Sherman is running for Senate against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. He’s the latest Democrat to jump into the field, which includes Rep. Colin Allred, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez and Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez. … Republican New Mexico education commissioner Sharon Clahchischilliage is running for NM-03 against Democratic Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández. Clahchischilliage is a former state representative. … Republican Missouri State Sen. Bill Eigel is running for governor. A crowded field of Republicans is already running to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Parson, including Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft. STAYING OUT OF IT — Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom said that should he need to appoint a replacement for Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, he wouldn’t choose any of the current Democratic lawmakers running for Senate because he doesn’t want to “tip the balance” of the primary. Newsom reiterated that he was still committed to choosing a Black woman for the role — but it wouldn’t be Rep. Barbara Lee, who’s running for the open seat next year against Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. On Sunday night, Lee said that she is "troubled by the Governor’s remarks." "The perspective of Black women in the U.S. Senate is sorely needed — and needed for more than a few months," she continued. IT’S A NO FROM ME — New York Democrat Sarah Hughes is no longer running for Congress. The attorney and former Olympic figure skater was planning on taking on Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in NY-04, but said on Friday that she dropped her bid. A handful of other Democrats — including former town supervisor Laura Gillen, who narrowly lost to D’Esposito last year — are still in the race to flip the district. REDISTRICTING REDUX — Recent court rulings on redistricting are raising Democratic hopes in places like Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and New York, our Zach Montellaro and Ally Mutnick report. “Redistricting could not only give Democrats a slight edge in their bid to reclaim the majority they lost in 2022 but also increase the number of Black members in their conference. Prospective Democratic candidates in several key states are already eagerly eyeing a rare chance to run for a federal office, and the party is brimming with hope about growing its footprint in the South.” ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Outgoing Democratic Washington Gov. Jay Inslee endorsed Attorney General Bob Ferguson as his successor in next year’s gubernatorial election. The endorsement is a boon for Ferguson, who’s facing a competitive Democratic primary field. Presidential Big Board BEHIND THE SCENES — Trump is largely waging a primary campaign out of public view, POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw writes. “While he has worked the phones, Trump has done far less on-the-ground campaigning than his competitors, his campaign says in part due to his near-universal name recognition and constant media attention.” NOT A NO — Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said that he would “certainly speak to” No Labels about a potential presidential bid if the centrist group approached him, he said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” THE CASH DASH DOLAN’S DOLLARS — Republican Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan, who’s making a second attempt at the Senate this year, launched a leadership PAC last year after losing the GOP primary for Senate with the promise of boosting “issue-oriented Republicans.” But The Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller writes that “more than one year after its launch, Ohio Matters has spent more money on Dolan's campaign consultants than candidates. And Dolan, who's part of the wealthy family that owns the Cleveland Guardians, never made the personal contribution he promised when the PAC kicked off.” VOTING RIGHTS FOR YOUR CALENDAR — “The state Senate committee overseeing elections will hold a vote on whether to reappoint Wisconsin Elections Commission administrator Meagan Wolfe despite legal opinions issued by the Legislature's own attorneys and Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul concluding her appointment is not legally before the Senate,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Hope Karnopp writes. The vote will take place on Monday. AS SEEN ON TV PRESIDENTIAL — Republican presidential candidate Larry Elder is running an ad in battleground states and his home state of California with a plea to voters to get him on the debate stage later this month. “The RNC is scared because they know I will talk about difficult issues,” he says in the ad. Elder claimed he met the requirements to take part in the first GOP debate last month, but the RNC said that wasn’t the case. KY GOV — Bluegrass Freedom Action, a super PAC boosting Republican Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s bid for governor, is tying Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to Biden, and hitting the governor over closures of schools and churches during the Covid-19 pandemic. … Meanwhile, Defending Bluegrass Values, the DGA’s affiliate group in Kentucky, is continuing to tie Cameron to former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin over his policies regarding Medicaid and education. STAFFING UP — Peter Daou is campaign manager for Cornel West’s Green Party presidential bid. He was previously campaign manager on Democratic Marianne Williamson’s presidential campaign. — Stephen Lawson will be senior adviser for former Rep. Mayra Flores’ (R-Texas) campaign. He is a Rick Scott, Ron DeSantis and Mike Collins alum. — Tom Bonier is CEO of TARA Group. He was previously CEO of TargetSmart, the progressive data company and subsidiary of TARA Group, and will continue to serve as senior adviser there. Lindsey Schuh Cortés, previously of Statara Solutions, is succeeding Bonier. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I don’t know about you, but I’m going to go to bed.” — President Joe Biden at a press conference in Vietnam.   Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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