THE SECOND TIME MIGHT NOT BE THE CHARM Bob Menendez is a bona fide political survivor. From humble beginnings in Union City, N.J., he clawed his way up the Jersey political ranks. As a House member, he won a foothold in leadership before winning the nod to replace newly elected Gov. Jon Corzine in the Senate in 2005. And six years ago, he beat federal corruption charges in a Newark courtroom, allowing him to regain the Senate Foreign Relations Committee gavel. That said, there’s good reason to think he might not survive this. A shocking 39-page indictment unsealed today by federal prosecutors in Manhattan lays out a brazen bribery scheme involving the 69-year-old Democrat and his wife, Nadine. The allegations amount to a Hollywood-ready story involving foreign arms deals, D.C. string-pulling, gold bars and a Mercedes convertible. Menendez referenced his prior prosecution in a defiant statement that warned that “the facts are not as presented” and called on the public to “recall the other times the prosecutors got it wrong and that you reserve judgment.” Menendez is, of course, innocent until proven guilty and will have a chance to seek exoneration in court. But as a political matter, there are several key differences this time around that threaten to put his long career in serious jeopardy. The timing: Menendez’s prior indictment was handed down in April 2015, more than three years before he had to face voters. That gave him time to mount a defense: A 2017 trial ended with a hung jury, and the Justice Department dropped charges months later — allowing him to run in 2018 free of a legal cloud. He won’t have nearly so much running room this time: Menendez is in cycle for 2024, with a primary scheduled in less than nine months. The charges: The prior case surrounded flights, hotel stays and campaign contributions that Menendez allegedly accepted from businessman Sal Melgen in return for his help with a Medicare billing dispute and other small favors. The new indictment makes much more serious accusations — that Menendez and his wife accepted envelopes of cash, a luxury convertible and gold for smoothing relations with an authoritarian regime and seeking to interfere with a pending federal investigation, among other allegations. The evidence: Lordy, there are texts. Prosecutors in the Melgen case never produced “smoking gun” evidence of a quid pro quo linking the gifts and Menendez’s actions. The new indictment, however, includes text messages, Google searches and DNA evidence — much of it suggesting that the senator was fully aware of the benefits accruing to his wife and their linkage to the official actions he is alleged to have taken — not to mention photos of a Menendez-monogrammed Congressional Hispanic Caucus jacket stuffed with cash. The politics: Besides the timing, the political environment for Menendez is radically different this time around. The Democratic establishment rallied around the veteran pol after the prior indictment, knowing that his resignation would allow then-Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, to name his replacement. Now a Democrat, Gov. Phil Murphy, is in office, and there is reason to believe Menendez is vulnerable in a primary: In 2018, a poorly funded, no-name Democratic challenger garnered nearly 38% against the veteran pol. The reaction: In 2015, an organized campaign from prominent Jersey Democrats made clear that Menendez retained firm support back home, which helped fend off calls for his resignation from outside the Garden State. This time, more than six hours after the indictment, many of those same officials have been silent (though he got backing from his son, Rep. Robert Menendez Jr.). We’re keeping a particularly close eye on Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who said back in 2015, “I won’t waver in my commitment to stand alongside my senior senator to serve our great state.”
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