| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  If union members ratify the agreements, they would largely validate UAW President Shawn Fain’s unconventional surprise tactics. | Paul Sancya, File/AP Photo | BIDEN BREATHING EASIER — The United Auto Workers have struck a tentative deal with General Motors, all but bringing to an end one of the highest-profile and most surprising strikes in a season of American labor unrest, several news outlets reported this morning. The GM-UAW agreement comes rapidly on the heels of similar accords with Ford and Stellantis, the other Big Three automakers, after more than a month of factory closures and picket lines 45,000 workers strong. Though the deal isn’t yet public and specifics haven’t been made clear, it’s expected to follow the pattern of the Ford and Stellantis agreements, which enshrined whopping 25% base pay increases for workers across 4.5 years. The UAW is expected to announce the deal later today. GM CEO MARY BARRA herself got involved in negotiations in Detroit yesterday, assisting the final push, per AP’s Tom Krisher. If union members ratify the agreements, they would largely validate UAW President SHAWN FAIN’s unconventional surprise tactics, which played hardball with the Big Three. (Just two days ago, Fain — who turns 55 today — put the squeeze on GM by adding another plant to the strike.) Over the past six weeks, the automakers lost billions of dollars, while thousands of workers were laid off, WaPo’s Jeanne Whalen reports. Along with writers and actors in Hollywood, the auto workers’ strikes led a wave of labor actions that built on workers’ increased power during a post-pandemic economic boom. The strikes also dragged the country’s leading politicians into the fight. President JOE BIDEN, under pressure and seeking UAW’s endorsement, made an unprecedented visit to the picket line last month, while DONALD TRUMP and other populist Republicans walked the line between blasting Biden and sticking with traditional business allies. The end of the strikes would be a weight off Biden’s shoulders, removing both a potential shock to the nation’s economy and an uncomfortable clash between organized labor and the green energy revolution. “I think it’s great,” he told reporters today, giving a thumbs-up on his way to Air Force One. His administration has worked hard to resolve the contract disputes. ICYMI, here’s what comes next: “U.A.W. Says It Aims to Organize Nonunion Auto Plants,” by NYT’s Neal Boudette THE BIGGEST SLOW-MOTION STORY IN POLITICS — “Why Trump’s Drastic Plan to Slash the Government Could Succeed,” by WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Jess Bravin: “[I]f he wins in 2024, Trump would find a friendlier [Supreme Court] than the one that sometimes frustrated him. … [S]ome people who know him expressed concern that an emboldened Trump could push the limits of the law far beyond what he did in his first term, and would surround himself with advisers who are unwilling to resist his impulses. … “[I]t is unlikely there are sufficient votes to fully scrap the merit-based employment that has been part of the federal firmament for 140 years. But the president does have authority to manage the civil service system, and Trump could find a court open to expanding the class of employees that can be hired and fired at the White House’s discretion.” INCOMING — New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY is filing with the FEC this week to wade into the state’s Senate race, with an official campaign announcement possible in the next few weeks, the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein reports. That would put her on a collision course with Rep. ANDY KIM (and, theoretically, indicted incumbent BOB MENENDEZ) in the Democratic primary. Murphy will “test the waters” with polling and fundraising to weigh a formal bid. Good Monday afternoon, and thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Amway: Amway proudly helps people live better, healthier lives with products grown & made right here at home. Through millions in continued U.S. manufacturing investments & the efforts of employees and independent business owners alike, Amway positively impacts American communities. Learn more. | | | ALL POLITICS PRIMARY COLORS — KEVIN McCARTHY lost the speakership. Could he lose his seat too? Don’t count on it, but DAVID GIGLIO is launching a Republican bid against McCarthy, aligning himself with the eight mostly MAGA members who voted to oust McCarthy as speaker, Olivia Beavers scooped in Inside Congress Live. JUMPING RACES, PART I — Rep. BARRY MOORE (R-Ala.), who was likely redistricted out of a chance at reelection thanks to a new map that gave Black voters more power, will instead challenge Rep. JERRY CARL (R-Ala.) in the primary for a neighboring district, he told 1819 News’ Caleb Taylor. Moore indicated that he’ll try to challenge Carl from the right: “The district really needs a true, true conservative to represent it.” JUMPING RACES, PART II — St. Louis County, Mo., Prosecutor WESLEY BELL, a Democrat, is dropping out of the Missouri Senate race to launch a primary challenge to Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.), The Kansas City Star’s Daniel Desrochers reports. That’ll make for “a rare contest between two post-Ferguson reformers,” with Bell positioning himself to Bush’s right. LUCAS KUNCE becomes the sole frontrunner in the Senate race to take on GOP incumbent JOSH HAWLEY. BATTLE FOR THE STATES — In the close Mississippi governor’s race, Democrat BRANDON PRESLEY will need major turnout from his supporters to have a chance at unseating GOP Gov. TATE REEVES, AP’s Emily Wagster Pettus reports from Natchez. In a state where Democrats’ floor is usually high but their ceiling is low, Presley is “attracting larger and more diverse crowds than any Democrat running for Mississippi governor in a generation.” But it would take significant Black turnout and crossover votes from white suburbanites or working-class voters to get Presley above Reeves. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — The DSCC announced it’s opening new offices, called “command centers,” in five crucial states for next year: Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. JUDICIARY SQUARE THE 14TH AMENDMENT QUESTION — The Colorado trial to determine whether the 14th Amendment bars Trump from running for president kicked off today, and is expected to last all week. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which is arguing that the “insurrectionist ban” makes Trump ineligible, said today that Rep. ERIC SWALWELL (D-Calif.) will testify at the trial, per The Hill’s Ella Lee. SCOTUS WATCH — As the Supreme Court takes up multiple cases tomorrow that could lead to big rulings on free speech, censorship and content moderation on social media, USA Today’s John Fritze examines the very personal stakes behind one of the legal fights. It all stemmed from Port Huron, Mich., where the city manager blocked a local gadfly/activist on Facebook over “weird” smiley face emojis. Now their contretemps “could lead to a ruling that sets the terms for how voters nationwide communicate with and criticize public officials on social media.” The high court will consider whether the city manager was acting in a personal or official capacity on Facebook — and then, potentially, whether the block was unconstitutional.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | MEDIAWATCH SIPPING FROM THE PUNCHBOWL — Our former Playbook colleague JAKE SHERMAN gets the WaPo Style section treatment from Jesús Rodríguez, who reports on the Punchbowl front man’s starring role on the Hill, obsessive readership and outside criticism. “Big picture, small picture. From inside the Capitol’s scoop-industrial complex, it can sometimes be hard to tell which is which,” writes Jesús (another former POLITICO colleague). “Subtle shifts in the breeze can foreshadow monumental changes in policy, and there’s a market of professional knowers and amateur news junkies who need intel, an edge, a fix. But the rest of the world isn’t the Hill.” 2024 WATCH WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS HOPING FOR — Trump has been making more verbal mistakes on the campaign trail lately, “a string of unforced gaffes, garble and general disjointedness that go beyond his usual discursive nature,” NYT’s Michael Bender and Michael Gold report. His presidential rivals in the primary and general election are taking notice. It isn’t certain whether the errors are related to his age (77), but if Democrats can even somewhat neutralize Republican attacks on Biden’s age by placing Trump on the same level, it would be a boon for the president. WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS DREADING — Forget about special elections and even last year’s midterm results that gave Democrats hope. The big threat to Biden’s reelection is that he has a striking disadvantage to Trump among voters who are less engaged and didn’t show up in 2022, NYT’s Nate Cohn writes. Biden’s struggles with younger voters of color? They’re “almost entirely concentrated among the voters who stayed home last November.” The big question is whether this group, which generally leans Democratic, will come home to Biden and show up next fall. If their turnout remains low, Biden could be very vulnerable. IT’S OFFICIAL — Though Biden isn’t on the New Hampshire primary ballot, his allies today commenced their write-in effort to hand him a victory nonetheless, Lisa Kashinsky reports. Many prominent Democrats in the state, including JIM DEMERS, KATHY SULLIVAN and a who’s who of Concord, are backing the campaign, though notably the members of New Hampshire’s congressional delegation are not listed. Biden refused to file for the primary because New Hampshire refused to move its date in accordance with DNC efforts to dethrone it; now a write-in campaign is his only shot at avoiding a largely symbolic Granite State embarrassment. WHAT WENT WRONG — Why has Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ presidential campaign stalled out? From Bedford, N.H., WaPo’s Hannah Knowles reports that DeSantis’ tightrope walk between moderates eager for a Trump alternative and MAGA supporters who like his Florida culture wars left neither side satisfied. He’s lost support at either end, striking many voters as neither fish nor fowl instead of unifying disparate camps within the GOP. A certain campaign-trail woodenness hasn’t helped.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | POLICY CORNER THE FIGHT AGAINST HATE — As antisemitic incidents grow on U.S. college campuses amid the Israel-Hamas war, the Biden administration today rolled out new steps to combat hatred of Jews, NBC’s Monica Alba and Peter Alexander scooped. That includes partnerships between DOJ/DHS and universities to keep track of violent speech online. The Education Department is also newly making explicit that Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 includes protections against antisemitism and Islamophobia. CALLING FOR COVERAGE — As the nation’s first over-the-counter birth control pill makes its way to consumers in the next few months, almost the entire Senate Democratic Caucus signed onto a new letter asking the Biden administration to make sure it’s fully covered by private health insurance plans, CNN’s Jacqueline Howard scooped. Sens. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.), BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) led the effort. THE ECONOMY HEY BIG SPENDER — “U.S. consumers keep spending despite high prices and their own gloomy outlook. Can it last?” by AP’s Christopher Rugaber and Anne D’Innocenzio: “Economists caution that such vigorous spending isn’t likely to continue in the coming months. … Still, the truth is no one knows where things go from here, given the unusual nature of the post-pandemic economy. … Spending might cool in the coming months, yet it’s far from clear it will collapse.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD HACK ATTACK — A cyberattack last summer revealed the email addresses of 632,000 Justice Department and Defense Department employees, Bloomberg’s Ari Natter reports. The group behind the MOVEit hack is Russian-speaking. BEYOND THE BELTWAY MASS SHOOTING FALLOUT — “Co-workers knew he was struggling. They didn’t expect he’d buy an AR-15,” by WaPo’s Robert Klemko: “The man who killed five and wounded eight at a Louisville bank had been undergoing therapy and considered suicide — but faced no hurdles in purchasing a rifle days before the attack. Some survivors and victims’ families are planning to sue the gunmaker.” PLAYBOOKERS BOOK CLUB — Jen Psaki is publishing a new book, “Say More: Lessons from Work, the White House, and the World.” The first of a two-book deal with Scribner, it will come out May 7, followed by an illustrated book for kids from Simon & Schuster Books for Young Readers. More from the AP TRANSITION — Kristine Grow is now VP of comms at Arnold Ventures. She previously was SVP of America’s Health Insurance Plans. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard.
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