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By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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WELCOME TO CHIINA WATCHER. This is Stuart Lau reporting from Brussels. In Beijing this week are the close confidants of Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron, the Russian and French presidents. Xi Jinping has formally sacked his defense minister, made a clean break with his ex-foreign minister, and learned of the sudden death of Li Keqiang, his former premier. November is not going to be uneventful. As usual, Phelim Kine will be with you from D.C. on Thursday.
EUROPE-CHINA THIS WEEK
BEIJING KEEPS EVERYONE WAITING: It doesn’t matter if you’re the U.S. President or one of the European Union’s leaders. Joe Biden, like EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the European Council’s Charles Michel, is being made to wait to hear whether Xi will agree to a meeting before the end of 2023.
Christmas wishes: The EU has on recent days proposed a couple of dates in December for von der Leyen and Michel to fly to Beijing for the EU-China summit, four diplomats told China Watcher. It would be the first time since 2019 that the summit has been held in-person. Back then, it was co-hosted in Brussels by the then Premier Li, whose death was announced last week. According to the diplomats, Beijing has still not replied. Earlier, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi told EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell that “full preparation” would be made for the “leaders’ meeting by the end of the year.”
What about San Francisco? But Wang didn’t drop any hints about whether Xi will show up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in mid-November. Wang visited Washington last week in what observers saw as a clear sign China’s preparating for a meeting between Xi and Biden. “Both sides agreed to work together towards the realization of the San Francisco Summit,” Wang said in a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement published on Sunday. “At the same time, the ‘road to San Francisco’ will not be a smooth one, and it cannot be on ‘autopilot.'” (For more on Wang’s U.S. visit, keep reading…)
MACRON’S TOP AIDE IN BEIJING: As soon as Wang returned to Beijing from the U.S., he hosted French presidential advisor Emmanuel Bonne for talks. The Chinese readout was keen to showcase the “friendly” nature of the exchange of views, calling it an “in-depth” discussion. Here are Wang’s main messages to Bonne:
— Don’t forget Gaullism: “Sixty years ago, China and France made the political decision to establish diplomatic relations, breaking the barriers of the Cold War,” Wang said. “Today’s world is at risk of division again. The times call on China and France to revisit the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations.”
— Don’t stop investing: “China welcomes more French companies to invest and operate in China,” Wang said. Beijing, he added, “also hopes that France will provide a fairer business environment for Chinese companies.” Bonne assured Wang that France “has confidence in China’s economy, and has no intention of restricting China’s growth,” according to the Chinese government’s statement.
He also met Xi’s best buddy” On Monday, Bonne met (over an unusually crowded table) Xi’s top economic aide Vice-Premier He Lifeng. According to He, China will “implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state” and will “push for more tangible results in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.”
Also talking climate: Bonne also met China’s outgoing climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, who said China will work with France to cooperate on climate change — one of few areas where EU still broadly sees eye to eye with Beijing. Xie, a seasoned official, is set to be replaced by Liu Zhenmin, a former deputy minister in the foreign ministry and now a senior official at the U.N., according to Bloomberg.
CHINA WILL SHOW UP AT UK’S AI SUMMIT: China is set to send a tech vice-minister to attend the U.K.’s two-day summit on artificial intelligence, starting Wednesday, Reuters reports. Wu Zhaohui, a Vice Minister of Science and Technology, was in Vladivostok last month signing deals on joint research initiatives with Russia. The U.K. has made a great deal of diplomatic effort to secure a high-level presence by China, calling it an important step of engagement with Beijing.
BEIJING HOSTS DEFENSE FORUM
SHOIGU THE SPECIAL GUEST: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was treated as a VIP at China’s biggest military diplomacy event, the Xiangshan Security Forum in Beijing, this week.
“Having provoked an acute crisis in Europe, the West is seeking to spread the conflict potential to the Asia-Pacific region, and in several directions,” Shoigu said, according to Russian news agency TASS. “In contrast to the general worrying situation, a comprehensive Russian-Chinese partnership and strategic engagement are being developed.”
The feeling is mutual: Meeting Shoigu in Beijing, Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, expressed hope for further Beijing-Moscow military cooperation. “China stands ready to work with Russia to actively respond to various security threats and challenges and jointly safeguard global strategic balance and stability,” Zhang said, according to state media Xinhua.
ALSO FEATURING BELARUS: Apart from Shoigu, the other main guest at Xiangshan was the Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. “In recent years, the Chinese-Belarusian high-level military exchanges have been frequent and close,” Zhang said, according to Chinese media. Khrenin said Belarus would “strengthen military cooperation” with China.
MINISTERS MISSING: Zhang, 73, led the forum as Beijing officially sacked the Defense Minister Li Shangfu last week without naming a replacement. Earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was fired after only seven months in his role and about three weeks after he also disappeared from the public eye. Qin had initially retained the title of state councilor, but on Tuesday state media reported Qin was also removed from that role.
Talking tough on Taiwan: According to Zhang, “no matter who wishes to separate Taiwan from China in any way, the Chinese military will never agree to it.” The tough rhetoric comes as Taiwanese voters prepare to elect their next president on January 13.
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TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
NEWSOM'S CHINA DIPLOMACY BASKETBALL FOUL: California Gov. Gavin Newsom's trip to China this week was billed as a climate mission, but he also engaged in high level governmental discussions on forced labor in Xinjiang, the repression of democracy in Hong Kong and fentanyl exports. The Democratic governor — who has little foreign policy experience — showed his ability to use an area where China and California are aligned around climate as a conversation starter for thornier diplomatic concerns typically handled by Washington. POLITICO's Blanca Begert, Sara Schonhardt and Zack Colman have the full story here. But the trip wasn't all smooth sailing: In a photo-op basketball scrimmage with some Beijing kids on Friday, Newsom stumbled and landed hard on one of the children. "It was a cringey moment for the Democratic governor but didn't cause injuries," Los Angeles Times reported on Sunday.
WASHINGTON'S WANG YI-PALOOZA: President Joe Biden and senior administration officials lined up for meetings with visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week. It marked the latest spurt of U.S. efforts to secure a meeting between Biden and Xi. Wang sat down with his host Secretary of State Antony Blinken for seven hours on Thursday and Friday to discuss issues including wrongfully detained Americans in China, Beijing's role in the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic as well as "concerns about PRC actions in the South and East China Seas," said a State Department statement published Friday. Wang followed that up with a meeting with national security adviser Jake Sullivan to plan "a meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November," said a White House statement issued on Friday.
The climax of Wang's visit was a meeting with Biden in which the two discussed the need to "manage competition in the relationship responsibly," according to the White House. Wang told Biden that Beijing seeks to "stop the decline and stabilize" U.S.-China ties, said a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement issued Friday.
WASHINGTON, BEIJING CLASH OVER NEAR-CRASH: A near-collision between a Chinese jet fighter that passed 10 feet from a U.S. B-52 bomber over the South China Sea last week has prompted a bilateral blame-exchange. "The U.S. military aircraft, which traveled halfway around the world to China's doorsteps to show off military muscle, is exactly the source of maritime and air security risks and dangers to regional peace and stability," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday. That was a response to a Pentagon statement issued on Thursday that alleged the Chinese pilot "flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner."
**On November 21, POLITICO Live will host its Defense Launch event to discuss Europe's defense policy and the increasingly important roles played by NATO and the European Union. Join us onsite and hear from our speakers!**
TRANSLATING CHINA: LI’S DEATH
LI KEQIANG, who until this March was China’s Premier under Xi, died unexpectedly of a heart attack on Friday. Li was widely seen as the last senior official who didn’t fully share Xi’s political agenda. The past decade saw Beijing’s ties with the West worsen due to its expansionist behavior in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the Himalayas.
Mourning as a silent protest: In Li’s hometown Hefei, a sea of flowers was laid by the mourning public. Chinese authorities are watching closely whether public mourning of this sort could turn into political instability, as has happened at times with previous deaths of China’s top leaders.
Campus monitors: A university in Shanghai, where Li passed away while swimming in a hotel pool, apparently posted an internal notice asking the staff to “closely monitor” any student activities in the name of mourning. Another university in Beijing also warned students not to organize private memorial events, according to the South China Morning Post.
For now, the state keeps mourning to a minimum: In a sign of how sensitive this is for Beijing, there have been few special programs on state media remembering the life of a man who until a few months ago was the head of government for the world’s second largest economy. In the official obituary, Li was hailed as “a time-tested and loyal communist soldier.” The write-up added: “The obituary notice calls for turning grief into strength to rally more closely around the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core.”
What will he be remembered for? His powerlessness in the face of Xi’s total control, according to political analyst Adam Ni who spoke to The Guardian. Indeed, during his last official appearance, he told the media that “China will unswervingly expand its opening up” — amid international concern that Xi would take the country in an isolationist direction, adding: "The Yangtze River and the Yellow River will not flow backwards.” That’s not an idiom Xi has ever invoked.
MORE HEADLINES
BLOOMBERG: Elite British schools woo rich Indians after China growth prospects sour.
FINANCIAL TIMES: US-China tech trade wars reveal vulnerabilities on both sides.
NEW YORKER: China's age of malaise.
NIKKEI: Canada and Taiwan complete talks on a bilateral investment deal.
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Xi Jinping is looking for someone to blame for China's property bust.
MANY THANKS TO: Editor Tim Ross, and producer Seb Starcevic.
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