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After dairy ruling, warnings of a weaker USMCA

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Nov 27, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO's Weekly Trade newsletter logo

By Ari Hawkins

With help from Camille Gijs, Sophie Inge and Doug Palmer

QUICK FIX

— The chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and industry stakeholders are warning that a panel’s decision to reject a U.S. complaint over access to Canada’s dairy market fails to live up to terms spelled out in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

— European trade ministers in Brussels will discuss how to move forward in negotiations with Washington and settle a long-running metals dispute ahead of an end-of-year target.

— The British trade association known as TechUK expressed disapproval over the U.S. decision to withdraw support for digital trade proposals from the WTO, and is pushing for a “high ambition” deal on e-commerce with member economies.

Happy Monday, Nov. 27. Welcome back to Morning Trade! Let us know how many times someone mentioned the supply chain over the Thanksgiving dinner table. I notched a total of five mentions. Got tips? Want to chat over coffee? Reach out to: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can also follow us on X: @_arihawkins, @gavinbade and @tradereporter.

 

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Driving the day

 Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) talks with committee chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Capitol Hill March 10, 2023 in Washington, DC. The hearing focused on President Joe Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget plan.

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) talks with committee chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Capitol Hill March 10, 2023 in Washington, DC. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

RAGE BUILDS OVER USMCA RULING: American lawmakers and major industry groups are tearing into a landmark decision from the three-member USMCA panel on Friday that rejected a complaint that Canada has overly restricted U.S. dairy imports.

“The panel’s decision leaves in place a status quo of Canadian dairy restrictions that is simply unacceptable. American farmers deserve a level playing field, and Canada must uphold both the spirit and the letter of its obligations under USMCA,” said Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, in a statement.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) shared a similar sentiment on Friday, suggesting the move would position farmers in Upstate New York and North Country at a strategic disadvantage.

Catch me up: The U.S. requested a panel in January to investigate if Canada’s market-share approach to deciding dairy import rules violated USMCA obligations. The Biden administration argued that Canada’s revised rules on import quotas barred importers, retailers and food service operators from gaining market access. The country uses tariff rate quotas to limit foreign dairy imports to protect the domestic industry in 14 categories including milk, cream, butter, skim milk powder and cheese.

"Two of the three panelists found that Canada's measures do not breach of any of the USMCA commitments that the United States cited," said the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in a statement on Friday, referring to the decision.

Big biz in the fray: Under a system of tariff rate quotas, Canada has awarded the majority of volumes to domestic processors. That hits market access for U.S. exporters, hindering the efficacy of the revised version of the North American free trade pact, according to U.S. industry.

“By allowing Canada to ignore its USMCA obligations, this ruling has unfortunately set a dangerous and damaging precedent,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. The National Milk Producers Federation similarly argued that the panel ruled in favor of trade obstruction. “We urge Ambassador Tai and Secretary Vilsack to look at all available options to ensure that Canada stops playing games and respects what was negotiated,” said president and CEO Jim Mulhern.

Admin agrees: USTR Katherine Tai on Friday said she was “very disappointed” with the determination. She added that “despite the conclusions of this report, the United States continues to have serious concerns about how Canada is implementing the dairy market access commitments it made in the Agreement.”

How we got here: The U.S. has launched two dispute settlement panels to fight Canada’s dairy TRQs since the USMCA came into force in 2020. The U.S. claimed victory in the first panel, launched and completed in 2021, after panelists ruled Canada breached its obligations under the deal by reserving TRQs for domestic processors.

Ottawa gloats: International Trade Minister Mary Ng and Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay issued a joint statement saying the Canadian government is “very pleased” with the panel’s conclusion and said it’s a positive development for “Canada's dairy industry and our system of supply management.”

Washington’s not alone: Canada’s TRQ policy also faces criticism from trading partners like New Zealand, which initiated a formal trade dispute under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Its panel in September released its report concluding that Canada's policies were granting preferential access to domestic dairy processors.

U.S. STEEL RETURNS TO HAUNT TRADE MINISTERS: European trade ministers are in town today, and the most closely watched item on their agenda is the (contentious) relationship between Brussels and Washington, especially when it comes to resolving a long-running metals dispute by the end of this year.

In case you forgot: Without a deal to set up a green steel and aluminum club, Trump-era tariffs and EU counter-tariffs could snap back on Jan. 1. In addition, the two sides want to reach a deal on critical minerals to round the edges off of Washington’s massive splurge on its homegrown green industry.

Brussels and Washington had set themselves an aspirational October deadline to reach a deal on turning against China’s heavily subsidized metal production and incentivizing partners to reduce their carbon emissions. And despite high expectations, a summit of EU and U.S. leaders ended with no results on either score in late October.

U.S. officials have said they would not reimpose Trump’s tariffs even if there’s no deal by the end of the year, and instead would leave in place the tariff-rate quota arrangement that was agreed on two years ago. However, Biden has not yet issued a new executive order to do that; nor has the European Commission issued a new regulation that would delay retaliation on about $6 billion worth of goods scheduled to take effect in the new year.

At the heart of it all are bigger questions about how to deal with China and differing views on the global trade system. The EU disagreed with the U.S. approach of erecting a steel and aluminum tariff barrier against “non-market economies” like China, preferring instead to deploy classic trade defense measures that respect WTO rules.

Agree to disagree: “We agree on the objective, but we don’t see eye to eye on the path to get there,” summarized a European diplomat, echoing a widely shared mood among EU countries. “We need the Commission to find a path to avoid the retaliation of tariffs on either side of the Atlantic come January 1st.”

And if there’s no solution, and the current tariff truces continues, “we need to convince the Americans to flexibilize more the quotas they’ve put into place,” said the diplomat, who was granted anonymity as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

E-COMMERCE MORATORIUM SCOOP: TechUK is among a group of influential trade bodies pushing for members of the World Trade Organization to pursue a “high ambition” deal on e-commerce, despite the United States’ controversial decision to walk away from the talks.

Customs duties: In a letter shared exclusively with POLITICO, the coalition led by TechUK writes: “Our collective economic development, growth, prosperity and employment depend upon cross-border access to technology and the movement of data in between countries.”

The ask: As the last round of negotiations on the WTO’s Joint Statement Initiative on E-Commerce gets underway, the signatories want member countries to back a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions.

Plus: They also call for an end to trade deals that discriminate against digital products or require companies to share source code when exporting digital services. And they want a clampdown on “discriminatory data localization policies.”

High ambition: The signatories also say they “regret” the U.S. decision to withdraw support for the policies in October, adding that the “participating economies should continue to seek high ambition, including on data and source code, to deliver the first-ever high standard global baseline agreement on digital trade.”

BIDEN EYES SUPPLY CHAIN STABILITY: President Joe Biden is convening the inaugural meeting of the White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience today and will announce nearly 30 new actions aimed at shoring up investment and access to critical goods, according to a briefing from White House officials. The president is expected to broaden the Defense Production Act to shore up investment and domestic manufacturing of essential medicines and announce new cross-government partnerships.

Around the World

Javier Milei, Argentina's president-elect, speaks during an election night rally at the party headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023.

Javier Milei is softening his rhetoric on Argentina’s trading partners in a signal the populist president-elect could be more open to engaging economically than his campaign would imply.

TONING IT DOWN: Javier Milei is softening his rhetoric on Argentina’s trading partners in a signal the populist president-elect could be more open to engaging economically than his campaign would imply, as the country navigates one of its worst economic crises.

The self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist, who slammed the Chinese government as an “assassin” and signaled he would reject trade relations with Brazil or countries with “communist” rulers, is striking a less hostile tone in the days since his Nov. 19 victory.

"I thank President Xi Jinping for the congratulations and good wishes," Milei said on X, after China sent a letter congratulating him on the election results.

Milei also patched things up with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and told a regional television station that Brazil’s leader would “be welcome” to attend his Dec. 10 inauguration. He also spoke cordially with the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, who Milei once described as the devil’s man on earth and a “son of a bitch preaching communism.”

Milei meets reality: The tone marks a reversal from his fiery rhetoric on the campaign, during which Milei suggested he would balk at the prospect of doing business with China’s communist government because of its restrictions on civil liberties, and that the country would move to instead embrace Western governments like the United States.

Eye on the money: Milei rose to popularity on a wave of anger as the economy nosedived and faces one of the world’s fastest rising inflation rates. The Libertarian outsider as part of his campaign promised major economic overhauls, including ditching the peso for the American dollar, shuttering the central bank and undertaking massive public spending cuts.

TRILATERAL SUMMIT IN MOTION: Top diplomats from China, Japan and South Korea meeting in Busan, South Korea, agreed Sunday that they should resume their trilateral leaders summit in a bid to improve ties. "We agreed to expedite the necessary preparations," South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin said, without providing a timeline.

 

JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 12/12: For centuries, women were left out of the rooms that shaped policy, built companies and led countries. Now, society needs the creativity and entrepreneurship of women more than ever. How can we make sure that women are given the space and opportunity to shape the world’s future for the better? Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Dec. 12 for Leading with Purpose: How Women Are Reinventing the World to explore this and more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
International Overnight

— New Jersey has stopped enforcement of a Russian sanction law following a legal challenge, and after it became clear the effort could punish not just Russian oligarchs but also multinational companies, per Daniel Han.

— There will be no new measures to target Russia’s liquefied natural gas as Brussels puts the finishing touches on a new package of penalties meant to put the brakes on Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine, per Gabriel Gavin and Victor Jack.

— An EU-backed international partnership to secure access to critical raw materials will focus on jointly anticipating shortages and supply-chain disruptions, according to a draft of the club’s launch statement seen by POLITICO.

— The Israel-Hamas war has brought a boom in cutting-edge military technology from U.S. makers — and a brewing diplomatic headache for the White House, per Mohar Chatterjee.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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