An energy policy nerd's guide to election night

Presented by bp: Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Nov 07, 2023 View in browser   By Christine Mui Presented by Lowlova/Wikipedia (left); iStock (center); Steve Helber/AP (right) President Joe Biden's climate plan hinges on the actions of major energy-producing states — and today's elections could determine how quickly several of them ditch fossil fuels. The governor’s mansion is up for grabs in Kentucky and Mississippi, while Republicans have a shot at taking control of the statehouses in Virginia and New Jersey. Winning candidates will shape state energy policy for the next several years — including whether Virginia exits a regional carbon trading program or New Jersey aggressively pursues offshore wind. Such decisions loom large on Biden’s clean energy agenda. For its ambitious goal of a carbon-free U.S. power sector by 2035, the administration is counting on as many states as possible to boost renewable energy development, using Inflation Reduction Act incentives. Kentucky Both Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and his opponent, Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, have pledged to support coal, a heavyweight industry in the state. But Beshear has also touted clean energy, helping attract $8 billion in private investments for two electric vehicle battery plants. Cameron has blasted Biden’s climate policies, suing the administration over fuel economy rules and proposed pollution limits for power plants. Republicans already hold a supermajority in the state Legislature, making a win by Cameron consequential for energy policy. “Having Republicans control the full government would facilitate their tendency to try to prop up the coal industry,” said Andy McDonald, director of climate consulting firm Apogee. Mississippi  Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is running for a second term against Democrat Brandon Presley, a longtime state utility regulator. Neither candidate has opposed oil and gas development — that would be a “deal killer” considering the industry’s strong presence there, said Patrick Sullivan, president of the Southeast Oil and Gas Association. But the two have fought over solar power. Presley voted for rooftop solar incentives while on the Public Service Commission, and Reeves has attacked him for taking campaign donations from a Tennessee-based solar company. Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and his party eye full control of the state Legislature. All 140 seats in the Legislature are up for grabs. For its first trifecta in a decade, the GOP needs to flip a few Senate seats and keep its majority in the House of Delegates. That has triggered concerns from environmentalists, who fear several policies would be on the chopping block: the South’s first statewide 100 percent carbon-free electricity target by 2050, a law to effectively ban gasoline-powered vehicle sales by 2035 and the state’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. New Jersey In New Jersey, all legislative seats are in play, making it possible for Republicans to flip the Democratic-controlled state Legislature. That could upend Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s plans to boost offshore wind — on top of the blow from developer Ørsted’s unexpected cancellation of a major wind project off the state’s coast. Partisan divisions over offshore wind development and the electric vehicle transition have intensified, with candidates clashing over their impact and feasibility. “If Republicans do [flip control], there simply won’t be funding to do any of the things the governor wants to do with wind power,” said Benjamin Dworkin, director at the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. But he also predicted Republicans won’t pick up enough seats to overcome Democrats’ 10-seat edge in the state Senate and 12-seat advantage in the General Assembly.   It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Christine Mui. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to cmui@politico.com.   A message from bp: bp added more than $70 billion to the US economy last year. We did it by making investments from coast to coast – like almost doubling our capacity to produce biodiesel in Washington state AND bringing a new platform online in the Gulf of Mexico. See how else bp is investing in America.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: International climate negotiators finally reached an agreement on how to set up a fund that would help developing nations cope with climate change. POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Sara Schonhardt discusses the deal, why it pleased no one and what it means for the upcoming United Nations climate talks.   GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE.     Power Centers Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) listens during a hearing of a special House committee dedicated to countering China on Feb. 28 on Capitol Hill in Washington. | Alex Brandon/AP Hang-ups over China A House committee's bipartisan consensus on economic and security threats posed by China has broken down over energy issues, Andres Picon reports. Fault lines include the clean energy transition, with partisan head-butting arising over a business deal between Ford and a Chinese battery manufacturer and Wall Street investments in Chinese energy companies. Minerals diplomacy Helaina Matza is the State Department’s point person overseeing a G7 initiative aimed at partnering with developing countries to counter China’s investments in those countries. Matza said in an interview with POLITICO’s E&E News she expects the global supply of critical minerals needed for a green transition to be a focus on the sidelines of the COP28 climate conference at the end of this month, Hannah Northey and Sara Schonhardt report. Probe snags Portuguese PM Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa resigned Tuesday amid a corruption probe tied to lithium exploration and a green hydrogen megaproject, Aitor Hernandez-Morales reports. Police raided Costa's official residence and several government ministry buildings, while the minister of infrastructure and the head of Portugal’s environmental protection agency were indicted. Costa insisted he’d had nothing to do with any “illicit or reprehensible act.”   A message from bp:   In Other News Bad science: The journal Nature retracted a paper by researchers who claimed to have discovered a room-temperature superconductor that could revolutionize electric grids, batteries and computers.   A message from bp: bp supports more than 275,000 US jobs. Jobs keeping oil and gas flowing AND developing more lower carbon energy. It’s and, not or. See what doing both means for energy nationwide.   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. The Supreme Court. | Francis Chung/E&E News In a short order, the Supreme Court denied a request by three major oil companies to shift a case to federal court in a legal battle over who should take responsibility for Louisiana’s disappearing coastline. China said Tuesday it would bolster efforts to crack down on methane emissions, one of the major drivers of rising global temperatures. A 1,200-megawatt transmission line linking Quebec to New England is a test of the Biden administration’s push to build transmission infrastructure for renewable energy and a gauge of New England’s climate commitments. Electric reliability could be a problem in the Northeast if the region's largest liquefied natural gas terminal closes, according to federal energy regulators. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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