| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | | | We’re less than 24 hours away from Election Day. You had questions, and we had answers. Last week we asked you, our dear Score readers, to send in your questions ahead of the big off-year elections. (Need help figuring out which races to watch? We have a handy guide right here.) Let’s get right to it.
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People gather in the parking lot of the Hamilton County Board of Elections as people arrive for early in-person voting in Ohio. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo | Which ’23 race will have more impact on the ’24 election cycle — Ohio or Virginia? Broadly speaking, it's the Virginia state legislative races. Both parties agree that Ohio is off the map at the presidential level, even if Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's campaign is central to his party's uphill climb to keep control of the Senate. And even though Republicans have little chance to reverse their decline in Virginia with former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, the state's geography means we'll get reads on important voting blocs, like suburban voters and African Americans. Think of it as a great test of both Democrats in the Biden era and whether Gov. Glenn Youngkin's success at clawing back territory the GOP lost during Trump's presidency continues two years later. — Steven Shepard How could the Israel-Hamas war affect the outcome? The short answer: It probably won’t. All of the big elections we’re watching Tuesday — the Kentucky and Mississippi gubernatorial races, the Virginia legislative contests, the Ohio abortion ballot initiative and the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court race — are state contests, which don’t really intersect with the world outside of America’s borders. There’s almost no mention of the recent war, or the fears about the rise of antisemitism or anti-Muslim violence in America, in advertising in the closing weeks of the race. Broadly, foreign policy is almost never top of mind for voters when they head to the ballot box, and that’s especially true for local elections. If there’s going to be an effect, it could come in congressional primaries next year or the presidential contest, but that is still a very long way away. — Zach Montellaro If abortion is codified in the Ohio constitution, would it bode well for President Joe Biden and Brown? Ohio Democrats are betting that the vote to codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution will serve as a roadmap for their contests next year. It’s a line of messaging Democrats across the country have successfully used over the last year — even in redder states. Ohio Democrats have already been blasting the 2024 GOP Senate hopefuls for campaigning against Issue 1, and Ohio Democratic Party Chair Elizabeth Walters said that Republicans are “doing a lot of legwork for us, drawing a contrast of who they are and what they stand for.” Republicans in the state disagree about the salience of abortion rights next year and argue that 2024 will be more of a referendum on Biden (who lost the Buckeye State by eight points in 2020) and the economy. Even if the initiative fails, I’d still expect to see Democrats campaigning on abortion next year. But remember: It’s Ohio, where kitchen-table issues are top of mind for voters, and Democratic messaging will reflect that, too. — Madison Fernandez Why is the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race important if control isn’t at stake? I’ll give you two reasons. The first is political. Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state that is key to Biden’s reelection next year. The state Supreme Court race is a bellwether that is being watched closely by political insiders in both parties. Also, Democratic nominee Dan McCaffery and his allies are leaning hard into abortion — so Tuesday will be a good measure of whether the issue is still energizing voters on the left more than a year after Dobbs. The second reason is that while only one seat is on the ballot this year and control of the court is not up for grabs, Democrats and Republicans alike say this year will set the stage for the ultimate battle over the majority. (Democrats are in power now, and judges are elected in partisan contests in Pennsylvania.) That’ll happen in 2025, when three Democrats on the court will face retention votes. — Holly Otterbein Happy Monday. What’re you keeping an eye on this Election Day? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the 2023 election: 1 Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 70 Days until the Republican National Convention: 252 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 287 Days until the 2024 election: 365
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: New 2023 Report! Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now. | | | | | ONE YEAR OUT — A year out from the 2024 election, Biden is struggling in a handful of critical states. Polling from The New York Times and Siena College released on Sunday caused some Democrats to freak out, as Biden is behind Trump in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania — all of which Biden won in 2020. The biggest gap was in Nevada, where Trump was ahead by 10 points. The only battleground state the president is winning was Wisconsin, which had Biden with 47 percent of support to Trump’s 45 percent. The poll was conducted among 3,662 registered voters from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 and had a margin of error between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points for each state. (Among likely voters, Biden still lags in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, but is tied with Trump in Michigan). Beyond the toplines, there are some other concerning data points, including “specific areas of weakness for Biden on policy, personal attributes and among key segments of the electorate central to his bid for a second term,” Steve writes. EYES ON IOWA — Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is expected to endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, a welcome boost for the campaign that continues to trail behind Trump’s. Trump — who slammed Reynolds after the endorsement, saying she “apparently has begun her retirement tour early” — still has the support of far more members of Congress and governors, including Govs. Mike Dunleavy (Alaska), Tate Reeves (Miss.), Henry McMaster (S.C.) and Kristi Noem (S.D.). SETTING THE STAGE — It’s getting harder to make it on the GOP presidential debate stage. For the fourth debate taking place on Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Ala., the RNC is requiring candidates to hit at least 6 percent support in either two national polls or in one national poll and two separate early state polls, up from 4 percent. Hopefuls also need to have 80,000 unique donors, an increase from the 70,000 needed previously. FLORIDA MEN — Trump and DeSantis shared the Florida stage on the same day for the first time during the presidential campaign. It didn’t go well for DeSantis, as Trump and his allies outflanked the governor in the days leading up to the Florida Freedom Summit, which took place over the weekend. “The governor still received loud applause during his 30-minute speech, though the audience for Trump cheered much louder and longer when he took the stage,” POLITICO’s Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard report from Kissimmee. The other non-Trump candidates also didn’t have the best time, getting heckled during their appearances. And former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley didn’t attend the event due to “family reasons,” NBC News’ Matt Dixon and Greg Hyatt reported. Because she wasn’t at the event, she’ll have to pay $100,000 to appear on the primary ballot in the Sunshine State — a price that’s $75,000 more than those who did come to the event have to pay.
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| | 2024 WATCH — Republican Texas state Rep. Craig Goldman is running for TX-12, a deep-red seat being vacated by Rep. Kay Granger at the end of her term. … Republican Virginia state Del. John McGuire is expected to launch a primary bid against Rep. Bob Good “in the coming weeks,” per POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers. The potential primary challenge comes after Good bucked powerful Republicans, including endorsing DeSantis’ presidential bid over Trump’s and voting to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker. … Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) is staying the course and signaled he’ll run for reelection if he gets expelled for his indictment and fabrications about his biography. The House failed to pass an effort to remove him from office last week. But the House Ethics panel is expected to announce its next steps regarding Santos later this month. PAC ATTACK — United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, is airing its first attack ads of the cycle against Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), Summer Lee (D-Pa.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. All three voted against a bill last month affirming the United States’ support of Israel. FIRST IN SCORE — THE YOUTHS — A quarter of the country’s legislators are either millennials or Gen Z, according to a new report from Future Caucus that was shared first with Score. The report — which tallies up lawmakers aged 45 and younger — finds a 4 percent increase in younger lawmakers from 2022. There are also 316 young legislators in “senior leadership roles” across the country. DOWN-BALLOT CORNER — Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed nearly two dozen Democrats running for seats in the Virginia state legislature. The endorsements are in competitive races that are targets for both Democrats and Republicans that could determine control of the state House and Senate. It’s the latest example of the national stakes of these elections, as Democrats look to hold the state Senate and flip the state House. … The more than 50 City Council races taking place on Tuesday in New York City “are the latest test of just how centrist parts of the city have become. And they’re a presage of the 2024 state and federal elections,” POLITICO’s Emily Ngo writes. “In a city led by proudly moderate Democratic Mayor Eric Adams, the shift to the center has been driven by spikes in crime and a surge in migrants over the past two years. And now the Israel-Hamas war is putting the Middle East tumult on the ballot for the first time since the fighting started Oct. 7, challenging political allegiances.” … Pennsylvania school board elections are receiving outsized attention and are turning “into a laboratory for the vitality of education-drenched politics,” POLITICO’s Juan Perez Jr. writes. “Board elections from the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs to smaller central Pennsylvania communities will further test the potency of conservative school politics ahead of the 2024 presidential election.”
| | | | A message from PREMION Political:   | | | | | KY-Gov — In the final days before the competitive race for governor of Kentucky, an Emerson College poll finds Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron tied at 47 percent. In recent weeks, Cameron and his allies have sought to tie Beshear to Biden — who is unpopular in Kentucky — and emphasize Trump’s endorsement of Cameron (1,000 likely voters, Oct. 30-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3 percentage points). CA-Sen — Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff are neck-and-neck in the race for California Senate — but the race is still a “wide-open affair,” according to a Berkeley IGS poll. Porter and Schiff earn 17 and 16 percent of support, respectively. Former baseball player Steve Garvey, a Republican, has 10 percent, and the rest of the candidates register in the single digits, including Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, who has 9 percent. Thirty percent of voters are undecided (4,506 likely voters, Oct. 24-30, MoE +/- 2.5 percentage points).
| | | | JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | — Joseph McNamara is stepping down from his role as chair of the Rhode Island Democratic Party. The state legislator, who has been chair for nearly a decade, is endorsing Elizabeth Beretta Perik, a fundraiser, in this month’s election as his successor. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I realized, well, he’s not going to be around much longer and I’m going to get his parking space.” — Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) to The Washington Post about being mad at Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) for pushing to codify a dress code in the Senate.
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