Biden’s ‘billion-dollar’ warning on climate

Presented by American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes : Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Nov 14, 2023 View in browser   By Christian Robles Presented by Devastation from Hurricane Michael is visible in Mexico Beach, Fla., in 2018. | Gerald Herbert/AP The Biden administration delivered a blunt message about what happens if global warming continues unabated: It’s catastrophic for the U.S. economy. The long-awaited fifth installment of the National Climate Assessment estimates that “billion-dollar disasters” are happening every three weeks on average. That’s up from every four months in 1980. If nations — including the two biggest carbon polluters, China and the United States — choose not to slash planet-warming emissions, then expect to see more heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, floods and rising sea levels. That poses serious risks to human health, infrastructure and economic growth, according to the report, writes Chelsea Harvey. "Low-probability and potentially catastrophic outcomes are not impossible,” the report says, “and these risks persist even under current policies." These extreme outcomes could include a 6-foot rise in sea levels along the continental U.S. coast by the end of this century. The report put out by the White House is the most complete evaluation to date of U.S. climate science, impacts and actions, Chelsea writes. The last report, which came out in 2018 under the Trump administration, landed the day after Thanksgiving — burying it under the distraction of the holidays. In this case, the report lands at a far different moment. U.S. climate diplomats under President Joe Biden are globe-trotting again, pushing for consensus on addressing climate change. But deepening geopolitical tensions could upend progress at COP28, the world climate conference that starts in just over two weeks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. ‘In human hands’ The federal assessment comes on the same day as a United Nations report found that global carbon emissions are rising under the 2015 Paris Agreement — which pushed for steep cuts over time — though at a slower pace than last year, writes Sara Schonhardt. The U.S. report adds two new chapters: on the economy and on environmental justice. Climate change endangers GDP growth, local industries and affordable insurance costs. It also has a disproportionate effect on marginalized communities such as indigenous Alaskans. “How much more the world warms depends on the choices societies make today,” the report says. “The future is in human hands." In remarks early today, Biden ticked off a list of climate disasters from wildfires in Hawaii to floods in New York. For all the troubling news, the White House also sounded a beat of optimism, pointing to the United States’ climate commitments, writes Zack Colman. “The takeaway from this assessment, the takeaway from all of our collective work on climate, should not be doom and despair,” said national climate adviser Ali Zaidi. Instead, he called for a “sense of hope and possibilities.” But we’re entering the election season. U.S. climate policies could dramatically change depending on who wins the White House in 2024.   It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Christian Robles. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to crobles@eenews.net.   A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes: Powering the nation's supply chain, the U.S. business of chemistry drives innovation in semiconductors, energy, healthcare, and more. But urgent action is needed! Already the most heavily regulated sector, America’s chemical industry faces growing regulatory overload. Before it’s too late, the Biden Administration and Congress must correct course and do a better job understanding the negative impact additional, unduly restrictive regulations have on a fragile supply chain. Learn more – Chemistry Creates, America Competes   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Zack Colman breaks down why the United Arab Emirates is pushing state-run oil companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions ahead of COP28.   GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     Reality Check: Will EV Sales Slow Down? A Polestar electric car prepares to park at an EV charging station July 28 in Corte Madera, Calif. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Major automakers — like General Motors and Ford — have slowed down their electric vehicle production in recent months, citing falling demand. But new data shows that EV sales are up by 55 percent compared to last year, with no signs of slowing. So far this year, more than 963,000 EVs, not including plug-in hybrids, have been sold in the U.S., signaling that automakers can expect to exceed the 1 million mark in annual sales for the first time, according to BloombergNEF. Atlas Public Policy, an EV advisory group, also published data today showing September was the strongest month on record for EV sales, with 136,000 cars sold. The vast majority of cars in the U.S. still run on fossil fuels. But some researchers say the EV market share has passed the “tipping point” where sales could accelerate toward broad adoption. BloombergNEF reported that EV sales sat at 8 percent of new car sales during the first half of the year. In September, that share hit 11 percent, according to Atlas Public Policy. Power Centers A Rice's whale in the Gulf of Mexico. | Marine Mammal Commission Whales get their day in court A federal court appears poised to require the Interior Department to advance a contested oil and gas lease in the Gulf of Mexico without additional habitat protections for the endangered Rice’s whale, writes Niina Farah. Interior reached a deal with environmental groups over the summer to limit the lease sale to protect the roughly 50 remaining whales from oil spills and vessel strikes. But the fossil fuel industry argues there's not enough evidence to warrant the economic impact of the lease restrictions. Drama over ruptured Baltic Sea pipeline Finland and Estonia have formally submitted a legal notice asking China to cooperate with its investigation into damage to Baltic Sea critical infrastructure, write Stuart Lau and Claudia Chiappa. Finnish and Estonian authorities are investigating the rupture last month of the Balticconnector gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting the two countries. Officials have identified a Chinese vessel, NewNew Polar Bear, as possibly being involved following a preliminary investigation.   A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes:   In Other News Green adoption: The nonprofit Rewiring America says the U.S. is on track to adopt green technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pump water heaters to meet the Biden administration’s 2050 net-zero goal. Rescuing wind: Germany agreed to provide €7.5 billion in loan guarantees to Siemens Energy, a major Munich-based manufacturer of wind farms, to help the company participate in large renewable energy projects.   A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes: Our nation’s supply chain runs on the U.S. business of chemistry. When chemistry creates, America competes. Semiconductors, automotive, healthcare, infrastructure, and energy all rely on chemistry. From EV’s to smartphones, America’s chemical manufacturers power innovations we can't live without. Unfortunately, regulatory overload and lack of coordination between the White House and its agencies is handicapping American chemistry’s ability to create products that support national priorities, jeopardizing the economy and America’s ability to compete with countries like China. This tidal wave of unduly restrictive regulations could disrupt the supply chain for crucial technologies and everyday products. President Biden and his administration need to understand how vital chemistry is to the supply chain when it comes to making the things America and the world can’t live without. The Biden Administration and Congress must support policies that empower chemistry, promote American innovation, and strengthen U.S. competitiveness. Learn more – Chemistry Creates, America Competes.   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. A container of lithium carbonate is seen in a shipping warehouse. | John Locher/AP Exxon Mobil announced plans to become a “leading producer of lithium,” making it the first major U.S. oil company to commit to extracting and sourcing the key mineral for electric vehicle batteries. Trump’s sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, a former federal judge known for being “tough on pollution,” died at age 86. EPA finalized a rule governing when and how states must submit plans to comply with pollution rules under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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