DeSantis' popularity drops in Florida

Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State

Nov 17, 2023 View in browser   By Kimberly Leonard KISSIMMEE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 04: Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during the Florida Freedom Summit at the Gaylord Palms Resort on November 04, 2023 in Kissimmee, Florida. The Republican Party of Florida hosted the summit as candidates continue to campaign across the country. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) | Getty Images Good morning and happy Friday.  Ron DeSantis’ job approval rating is now split in Florida. That’s according to a new poll out yesterday from Florida Atlantic University. In July, a majority of Florida voters approved of the job DeSantis was doing as governor (Mason Dixon polling had even higher approval for him back in March). But in the latest FAU poll, released Thursday, the governor’s approval in the state was almost exactly split, showing a drop of roughly four percentage points in four months. The figures were tucked into a larger report that projected Donald Trump would triumph over DeSantis in Florida’s presidential primary, despite a growing majority of Florida voters having unfavorable views of the former president. To arrive at the results, Mainstreet Research surveyed 946 registered voters over text from Oct. 27 to Nov. 11 across every Florida region. While these numbers are just a snapshot in time, they show the governor’s approval is trending downward in his home state, especially among certain demographics. When DeSantis resoundingly won reelection a year ago, he attracted a diverse coalition of voters that included Independents, women and Hispanics. But DeSantis’ support from Independent voters in Florida has taken a nosedive, the poll shows, with almost 60 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing as governor — a nearly 14-point increase from July. The governor launched his presidential campaign in May after the GOP-led Legislature passed a series of conservative priorities, including a law making it harder for undocumented immigrants to work in Florida and a six-week abortion ban. Since then, DeSantis has split his time between the campaign trail and the governor’s office — with most of it spent out of state vying for voters in Iowa. His favorability over that time fell among women, by 8 percentage points, and slightly among Hispanics, by 4.5 percentage points. The poll didn’t ask voters about many policy topics, and it’s possible that Trump’s incessant attacks have taken a toll in the home state they both share. The poll did show that Black voters in Florida, who broadly lean Democratic, held the highest level of disapproval for the governor. Their disapproval grew 10 percentage points since July, to over 80 percent. The new estimates come after DeSantis faced backlash over the state’s new African American history curriculum that required educators to teach how enslaved people “developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit.” This summer, Democrats also criticized DeSantis' record on race after a white gunman murdered three Black people in Jacksonville in a racially-motivated shooting. On a more recent issue, DeSantis’ policy position appears to be clearly in line with Florida voters. When asked for their opinions on the Middle East, 59 percent of Florida voters said they supported Israel. DeSantis has pursued pro-Israel policies throughout his time in office, including most recently through shipping over medical supplies and flying Americans back from Israel to the U.S. He also had the Legislature send him a bill to further sanction Iran. Yet overall, DeSantis has faced a difficult few weeks of headlines and polling, including in Florida. Some major donors have peeled away and while most members of the Legislature have endorsed DeSantis, Trump flipped a few to his corner. All of these factors are adding to another data point that shows the governor’s influence in Florida is waning. If the polls bear out and Trump is the GOP nominee, DeSantis appears set to return to Tallahassee without the momentum he had at the start of this year. Jamie Miller, a Florida-based GOP strategist, said DeSantis’ decision to run for president was probably a big reason that so many politicians were already floating their names for governor. Much of the political world tends to focus on the next candidate during a governor's final two years in office. “Instead of his lame duck sessions being two sessions, he may have turned it into three,” Miller said. “Because he started looking toward his next thing, others may have started sooner than they would have to look at running for governor.” DeSantis, of course, still holds the veto pen, can be instrumental in fundraising for the state party and will be able to name state appointees. “It’s not like you lost the presidency and now you're fired from being governor — it’s just that there’s others putting out job applications … It doesn’t mean he’s gone, it’s just that he’s not going to be as strong as year five after that reelection,” Miller said. — WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is campaigning in Iowa and will speak at the FAMiLY Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum tonight. On Saturday his campaign is hosting a grand opening for its Des Moines office, and Gov. Kim Reynolds will join him, our colleagues at Playbook in D.C. first revealed. Then DeSantis will campaign in Iowa and give remarks at an anti-abortion gala. On Sunday, Reynolds is joining him on a Never Back Down bus tour in Iowa. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com   GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... The U.S Supreme Court is seen on Friday, Nov. 3, 2023, in Washington. | Mariam Zuhaib, File/AP CAN’T ENFORCE — Supreme Court denies request to reinstate Florida drag show law, by POLITICO’s David Kihara. The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday denied a request by Florida to partially halt a judge’s order blocking the state from enforcing a new law banning minors from attending drag shows. A majority of the court concurred in the decision to not grant the stay Florida asked for in October. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in an opinion joined by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, indicated that the court was unlikely to grant full review in the case. FREE SPEECH CHALLENGE — Pro-Palestinian student group in Florida sues DeSantis, reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. One of the pro-Palestinian student groups the DeSantis administration is attempting to kick off campus sued the state and the University of Florida in federal court Thursday. The legal challenge is the most significant blowback hitting Florida since DeSantis and state university leaders ordered schools to disband local chapters tied to the national Students for Justice in Palestine organization over an agenda it distributed labeling the initial Hamas attack against Israel as “the resistance.” PENDING A RULING — Cost of abortion rights amendment unclear with pending decision on 15-week ban, reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian. Florida economists on Thursday said it was impossible to determine the fiscal impact of a ballot initiative seeking to add abortion rights to the constitution due to a looming decision from the state Supreme Court. Budget chiefs from the Legislature and the governor’s office decided during a Thursday meeting that the pending high court decision could yield too many possible outcomes. PENINSULA AND BEYOND MAJOR RAINFALL — “Storm swamps South Florida with flooding, high winds,” reports The Miami Herald’s Alex Harris. “South Florida awoke Thursday to downed trees, roads closed due to debris and flooding, homes taking on water and massive puddles everywhere. Tens of thousands of homes were without power. The cause? A no-name storm, one that swept the region over two days and dumped up to 14 inches of rain in some spots, with gusts as high as 75 mph at Government Cut and Port Everglades. The damage was enough to rival some tropical storms that have swept the region in recent years, according to the National Hurricane Center.” YBOR SHOOTING — "Second arrest made in Halloween weekend shooting in Tampa that killed 2, injured 16 others," reports The Associated Press. “A 14-year-old boy was arrested in Palm Beach County and was waiting to be transported back to Tampa, police said in a news release. He faces felony charges of being a minor in possession of a firearm while wearing a mask and carrying a concealed firearm.” LGBTQ+ EQUALITY REPORT — “Eight Florida cities get perfect scores,” writes Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry. “That comes from the Human Rights Campaign’s Municipal Equality Index, an annual report that gives scores to U.S. cities on issues like nondiscrimination laws, law enforcement and benefits and protections to LGBTQ+ employees. The report is produced in tandem with the Equality Federation. Getting maximum scores of 100 in Florida are: Tampa, Wilton Manors, Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Miami, Oakland Park, Orlando, and St. Petersburg.” CAMPAIGN MODE Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by NBC News, on Nov. 8, 2023, at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County in Miami. | Rebecca Blackwell/AP NOT HAPPENING — Nikki Haley won't debate DeSantis one-on-one, she told the Guy Benson Show, reports Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski. DeSantis had been onboard with facing off with Haley on Fox News Channel's Ingraham Angle after the host extended an invite. VOTER DRIVE — The new Power the Ballot Campaign wants 1 million Black Floridians to vote in 2024, reports WMFE’s Danielle Prieur. Civil rights groups and local leaders just launched a voter-registration drive. FORESHADOWING? — “Florida Democrats’ lesson for California: Don’t take anyone’s support for granted,” by the Los Angeles Times. “Florida in particular has Democrats worried. Though the state’s Cuban Americans have historically been more conservative than Latinos in the rest of the nation, Florida used to be a swing state, with Democrats counting on support from these voters to compete here. Then Trump won the state twice, and DeSantis dominated in his 2022 reelection bid, getting 62 percent of the Latino vote in Miami-Dade County and becoming the first Republican to win the area in 20 years. The 2022 results worried Democratic strategists. If their support could fall off so dramatically here, could it happen in Arizona, Nevada, or even parts of California?” DATELINE D.C. INSURANCE SUMMIT — U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost says he wants to meet with DeSantis after holding an “emergency roundtable” with constituents, reports WFLA’s  Rachel Tucker. "We want to have this conversation with the governor, a really good faith conversation about the stories and figure out how can we move together as a state to solve this problem," he said. ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN BIRTHDAYS: Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi … Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado … (Saturday) State Sen. Geraldine Thompson … (Sunday) Karen Moore, CEO and founder of The Moore Agency   GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.. 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