Manchin puts Dems’ majority on life support

Presented by National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Nov 09, 2023 View in browser   By Ally Mutnick and Daniella Diaz Presented by With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement virtually hands Republicans his ruby-red West Virginia seat and, very likely, at least 50 seats in the Senate. | Francis Chung/POLITICO MITCH McCONNELL IS SUDDENLY SMILING Senate Democrats' margin of error just dropped to zero. Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement Thursday virtually hands Republicans his ruby-red West Virginia seat and, very likely, at least 50 seats in the Senate. If the GOP wins the presidency, they may not need to flip a single other seat. A red-tinged map: Republicans could hardly be better positioned to reclaim the majority. Democrats are defending two other seats in states that Donald Trump won comfortably in 2020. Both of those incumbents — Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana — are running, but neither one has had to share a ballot before with Donald Trump. Four other presidential swing states have Senate seats up this cycle, giving Republicans extra chances in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. To keep their majority, Democrats would need to win every one of those seats and the White House — already a herculean task. If Democrats lose the presidency, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has two narrow paths to hanging on to his perch. Both are extremely unlikely to pan out. — Find a viable replacement for Manchin. A governor-turned-senator, Manchin has been the only Democrat elected to statewide office in West Virginia for years. The state’s Democratic Party has been suffering a slow death through embarrassing party switches and electoral defeat. There are now just 14 Democrats in the 134-person legislature — a decline that rapidly accelerated during the Obama era. “On the federal level there's not going to be another Democrat elected in West Virginia unfortunately as long as Barack Obama is around,” said former Rep. Nick Rahall, the last Democrat to represent the state in the House who lost his seat in 2014. Even if there was a broader bench, it might still be an impossible task to find someone who could take on Jim Justice, the sitting governor who launched a run for Manchin's seat. That’s why Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer lobbied the incumbent heavily to seek a third full term. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leaned hard into recruiting Justice — he was among the first phone calls that Sen. Steve Daines made after assuming the chairmanship — believing the governor could nudge Manchin into retirement. — Expand the map. Democrats could lose Manchin and up to two other Senate seats, but they have to take out one or both vulnerable Republican incumbents: Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). Scott, among the richest in the Senate, ousted Democrat Bill Nelson in 2018 by self-funding to the tune of $64 million. His wealth alone makes him formidable in Florida, a trending red state which Trump won twice. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) is running against him. Cruz nearly lost his 2018 reelection to Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, but Democrats have been hard-pressed to recreate that success. Sen. John Cornyn won by 10 points in 2020, and Democrats weren’t able to pick up House seats that year in the rapidly purpling Texas suburbs. One bright spot for Democrats: Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and lawyer who ousted a longtime GOP incumbent in 2018. He's leaving behind a now-safe House seat to challenge Cruz and as of September he had nearly $8 million in the bank. Texas might be moving toward Democrats — but probably not fast enough to win it in 2024. Spin room: “Democrats have multiple pathways to protect and strengthen our Senate majority,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. “We’ve already expanded the battleground map to Texas and Florida, where formidable Democratic candidates are out-raising unpopular Republican incumbents.” Said Daines in a statement, “We like our odds in West Virginia.” — Ally Mutnick   A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers: The Biden administration’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes would have devastating unintended consequences for communities of color. Criminalizing menthol will fuel an illicit market, increasing the potential for negative law enforcement interactions and significant criminal justice penalties. As advocates for equal justice for Black and other minority communities, we urge the Biden administration to withdraw the proposed menthol ban. Learn more.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Nov. 9, where the weather forecast for winter already has us freezing. IT’S HOUSE VS. SENATE ON THE CR The government is careening toward a potential shutdown on Nov. 17. And the House vs. Senate vibes are getting stronger by the day. Inside the split: Senators want a clean continuing resolution until December, setting up final action on fiscal 2024 appropriations before year’s end; House Republican leadership wants to punt further action into January to avoid a “Christmas tree” omnibus that combines all 12 annual spending bills into a mammoth catchall. What’s more, whoever wins the CR fight stands to take the upper hand in what comes next. That’s coloring the current machinations, which is one reason House conservatives are pushing for a “laddered CR” that would set up staggered shutdown deadlines aimed at avoiding an omnibus. What they have in common: Both chambers left town Thursday for the holiday weekend, just eight days before government funding runs out. Neither has so much as introduced a CR, though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer set up action on a shell bill for potential action next week. Where the Senate is going: “The Senate is willing to give the House more time, so we recognize a continuing resolution is needed and the most likely action on our part is what we call a clean CR,” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said in an interview. “I think our preference would be [for it to go] to the week before Christmas, as an effort to try to get it done this year. … There are Republicans that agree that’s the best course.” There’s no accord on a specific date yet, and securing bipartisan agreement on trying to wrap up the fiscal 2024 spending process by the end of the year could very well mean leaving out the contentious $106 billion supplemental funding request from the president. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said the dynamics might have changed had the House had acted before leaving town. But he added that talks are ongoing with Schumer about what the chamber might be able to pass, and “we’ll be prepared to vote before the deadline, I assume.” As for the House: Republicans who have spoken to Johnson say he plans to release text for a stopgap measure soon – maybe not today, but no later than Saturday. That would give lawmakers at least 72 hours to review it before a tentatively planned Tuesday vote Republicans are still publicly flirting with the idea of a two-step CR — extending one tranche of agencies into January and another into February. But behind the scenes, a coalition of appropriators, governing-minded moderates and even members of Johnson’s own leadership team are pouring cold water on the idea. Instead, Johnson’s being nudged into, and has appeared open to, passing a clean stopgap into January, potentially with Israel aid attached. “Cleaner the better,” said Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). “Don’t use it as an effort to jam somebody in some way. I think that could backfire and you may stumble into a shutdown without meaning to at all.” Worth noting: Much depends on whether Johnson can unite his ranks behind any CR, and there’s reason to think that’s easier said than done — especially after the collapse of another fiscal 2024 spending bill on the floor Thursday. Otherwise, keeping the government open will have to involve Democratic votes. And, well, we all know what happened the last time a GOP speaker moved a bipartisan spending patch. — Burgess Everett, Daniella Diaz and Jordain Carney   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     EXCLUSIVE: SENATE DEMS PUSH FOR HUMANITARIAN AID  A group of Senate Democrats is urging the chamber’s leaders to include $10 billion for humanitarian assistance as part of any national security supplemental package moved through the Senate, Huddle has learned. The letter — led by Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) — has more than two dozen signatures and is still being circulated. It will be sent to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Appropriations Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Appropriations Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine). The letter highlights the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the negative impacts these crises have on innocent civilians. “Beyond the moral significance of continuing our country’s tradition as the world’s leader in delivering life-saving humanitarian aid, this assistance promotes global stability and security by helping manage and provide for displaced populations, preventing recruitment to extremism, and mitigating economic pressure on partner governments,” the letter states. Not including the funding, the letter continues, “would directly threaten U.S. national security and the security of our partners.” The letter comes after the White House included humanitarian aid for Gaza in its supplemental package, only to see it stripped out when the House passed Israel aid legislation last week. — Daniella Diaz   A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers:   HUDDLE HOTDISH The House Ethics Committee announced it is investigating Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) after a referral from the Office of Congressional Ethics. Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) compliments a fellow New Yorker, and not one you’d expect! If you needed a vibe check… Noah is all of us today. QUICK LINKS  Junior leader turned Biden foe: How Dean Phillips fell from Democratic grace, from Sarah Ferris Behind closed doors, Johnson sounds a cautious note on SNAP, from Meredith Lee Hill Tim Scott’s girlfriend is, in fact, real, from Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw   A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers: The National Association of Blacks in Criminal Justice strongly opposes the Biden Administration’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes. The unintended consequences of the ban, including higher incarceration rates and increased police interactions, will be disproportionately borne by people of color.  Law enforcement resources and justice systems are already at a breaking point and the ban will only add to the strain. As an organization dedicated to improving the administration of criminal justice, we know the menthol bad is simply bad policy. Consumer education and health care are key to reducing smoking rates - not criminalization. We urge you to join us in telling the Biden Administration to stop the menthol ban. Learn more.   TRANSITIONS  Meaghan Byrne is now director for defense, space, critical and emerging technology at the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum. She most recently was a legislative fellow for Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.). TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is out. FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL *crickets*   PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     TRIVIA WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Annie Coulson correctly answered that the 27th amendment, proposed by James Madison and added to the Constitution in 1992, is the most recently passed amendment to be proposed by a Founding Father. TODAY’S QUESTION from Annie: What two current senators’ last names are anagrams of each other? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.