| | | | |  | | By Jordain Carney | | | With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team
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Mike Johnson is heading into a week that could put severe strain on his new speakership. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | WWJD (WHAT WILL JOHNSON DO)? With just a week until a possible government shutdown, Mike Johnson’s facing the biggest test yet for his nascent speakership. He’s expected to roll out his plan to fund the government by Saturday as Republicans aim to vote Tuesday on some sort of plan to keep the government funded past Nov. 17. But there’s a cautionary note here: His first plan may not necessarily be his last. It’s possible he tries a two-tiered, conservative-favored funding patch before ultimately switching to a more straightforward stopgap. That would drive the House closer to the deadline. Even members of his own leadership team are delivering a blunt message: If he wants to avoid a shutdown, he will eventually need to endorse a largely “clean” bill. “There’s only two options: There’s a clean [continuing resolution] or there’s a government shutdown,” one member of House GOP leadership, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Huddle. “There’s a significant number of Republicans who think there’s a magical third unicorn option,” the member added. “But they can’t articulate how that plays out.” Here’s two ways things could go:
- Scenario 1: Johnson offers a largely “clean” stopgap bill, most likely running through Jan. 12 or Jan. 19. Because several conservatives have warned that they won’t support a truly clean extension, which just extends current funding levels, Johnson could try to add a sweetener like aid for Israel to make it more palatable for his members.
- Scenario 2: Johnson offers a stopgap that funds one part of the government until January and another part until February — this would be the “unicorn” idea mentioned above. This idea — which Republicans have called a “laddered” CR — is DOA in the Senate and might not even pass the House. But that hasn’t stopped Johnson, members of the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives from floating the idea as a possibility. They hope it would force the Senate to the negotiating table quickly.
Either way, Johnson’s decision on the stopgap bill will offer one of first windows into how he will navigate the increasingly choppy waters between the hard-right faction of his conference and a coalition of centrists, old-school pragmatists and vulnerable frontliners, who signaled this week that they are getting fed up with walking the plank to take what they view as bad votes.
More risks for Johnson: Eventually, the Republican-controlled House will need to make a deal that’s palatable to the Democratic Senate, mean. And leaning on Democrats to help pass a short-term funding bill will start exposing cracks in the relationship between Johnson and his right flank. That’s not to say Republicans would jump to stripping Johnson of the gavel. Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said Republicans eying another vote of no confidence against the speaker have learned two lessons: For one, “It would be dangerous to do again.” And second, “It would be very difficult to do against this particular speaker because the alternative would not be further to the right.” Other headaches next week: House Republicans want to take up two of their most difficult full-year funding bills — more on that below. And Johnson will need to defang an effort by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas — a move he supports but doesn’t have the necessary conference support to pass. — Jordain Carney, with an assist from Sarah Ferris
| | | | A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers: The Biden administration’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes would have devastating unintended consequences for communities of color. Criminalizing menthol will fuel an illicit market, increasing the potential for negative law enforcement interactions and significant criminal justice penalties. As advocates for equal justice for Black and other minority communities, we urge the Biden administration to withdraw the proposed menthol ban. Learn more. | | | GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Nov. 10, where we’re wishing everyone a meaningful Veterans Day weekend. ABORTION POLICY ADDS TO JOHNSON’S FUNDING PAIN Five: That’s the number of funding bills the House’s new speaker still needs to pass in his quest to advance all 12 of the annual spending measures. And it’s the same unfinished score as last Friday, despite Johnson’s best efforts in the interim. One week on, a couple of factors have further dimmed the speaker’s odds of passing all (or any) of the remaining bills, even as House Republican leaders plan to tee up two more next week at the behest of conservative hard-liners.
- Voters throughout the country decisively chose abortion rights over restrictions on Election Day this week, even in conservative strongholds.
- Swing-district Republicans told the new speaker a day later they wouldn’t back the Financial Services spending bill unless GOP leaders nixed language restricting reproductive rights in D.C., helping kill plans for passage.
Those whipping woes spell trouble for the two spending measures on deck in the House next week. Both of the bills are so controversial they already had to skip committee approval, and both contain policy limiting abortion rights: - The Commerce-Justice-Science bill blocks funding for suing a state or local government over abortion laws. It would also explicitly bar the Justice Department from covering abortions except when the mother’s life is in danger, limiting abortion access for people incarcerated in federal prisons.
- The Labor-HHS-Education bill bars Medicaid from covering abortions and defunds the Title X program that provides hundreds of millions of dollars to family planning programs. The bill would also prevent the National Institutes of Health from doing medical research using fetal tissue from elective abortions. And it would block Biden administration efforts to increase abortion access for people who live in states with bans, including by cutting off funding for the national hotline to counsel people seeking abortions.
“We ought to be very respectful of women and the choices they have to make,” said Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), a swing-district member who tried to get the reproductive rights language nixed from the Financial Services bill this week. — Jennifer Scholtes, with an assist from Daniella Diaz
| | | | A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers:   | | | DON’T GET YOUR SUPP HOPES UP Senators in charge of negotiations for supplemental legislation are tamping down expectations for a deal by next week, arguing there’s still a lot to be worked through before going to the floor with a package. “I don’t think we can get the supplemental done by next week,” said Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.). “That’s disappointing to me.” A group of bipartisan senators met for nearly three hours on Wednesday and continued talking on Thursday about a border security component for the supplemental package, which would also aid Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. Most Republican senators have already made clear they won’t support additional Ukraine aid without a border package attached to it. But lawmakers in the group acknowledged that the package can’t be finished by next week, when Congress also faces a government funding deadline. And they made no bones about how tough things are. “We can't fail," said Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) who is part of the border group. "The Ukrainians have come close to winning on the actual battlefield, and Putin is counting on winning from the Capitol Hill battlefield." Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of the Republican negotiators, said there is still a lot to figure out and negotiators need time. “We’ve got to vet it with other members because we have some members who are rightfully trying to push for everything that they can. So at some point, we just have to say: ‘Are we too far apart to continue the negotiations or do we have a basis for getting down to the legislative text?’ And we're close to that now,” Tillis said. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said whatever the group comes up with “is going to be a limited, but important set of changes, and it will have priorities for Republicans and we'll have some priorities for Democrats.” What could the House accept? House Republicans are split on whether they’d even pass a Senate deal linking Ukraine and the border. Almost every House Republican in the Texas delegation sent a letter to their Senate colleagues requesting that the chamber take up House Republicans’ border plan, known colloquially on Capitol Hill as H.R. 2. Schumer said anything which included H.R. 2 was a “nonstarter” in his chamber. — Burgess Everett, Daniella Diaz and Katherine Tully-McManus
| | | | A message from National Association Of Black Law Enforcement Officers: The National Association of Blacks in Criminal Justice strongly opposes the Biden Administration’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes. The unintended consequences of the ban, including higher incarceration rates and increased police interactions, will be disproportionately borne by people of color. Law enforcement resources and justice systems are already at a breaking point and the ban will only add to the strain. As an organization dedicated to improving the administration of criminal justice, we know the menthol bad is simply bad policy. Consumer education and health care are key to reducing smoking rates - not criminalization. We urge you to join us in telling the Biden Administration to stop the menthol ban. Learn more. | | | MANCHIN’S MUSINGS Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), fresh off his announcement he would not seek reelection, said Friday he considered meeting with those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. “When I'm hearing all the doors rattle on Jan. 6 — and we were locked into the Senate — and I'm thinking, why don't we just go out and talk to them,” he said at an event at the University of Georgia on political civility. “I’m sure all of us have skills at talking to people and personalizing things.” Manchin has previously condemned Jan. 6 as a “horrific day” and “a stain on our nation.” He voted in the aftermath to impeach former president Donald Trump for fomenting the attack. When Manchin later referred to the events as “getting attacked by all of our visitors,” former Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who appeared with Manchin, quipped they were visitors that “you wanted to speak to.” Both expressed gratitude that staff removed the boxes containing certified electoral college votes during the events of the day. — Anthony Adragna
| | | | GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. | | | | | | | | | Manchin might have announced yesterday he’s not running for another term, but when he bailed on his favorite home-state radio host, it became official-official. QUICK LINKS What Hunter Biden’s prosecutor told Congress: Takeaways from closed-door testimony of David Weiss, from Betsy Woodruff Swann at POLITICO Maine Lawmaker Looked at His AR-15 Differently After Lewiston Massacre, from Ben Kesling at The Wall Street Journal "A small army": How the iconic Capitol Christmas Tree is picked, gets to D.C., from Ivana Saric at Axios Mitch McConnell, standing apart in a changing GOP, digs in on his decades-long push against Russia, from Mary Clare Jalonick and Lisa Mascaro at The Associated Press Suspicious letters sent to elections offices in at least five states, from Maegan Vazquez and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez at The Washington Post
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | MONDAY IN CONGRESS The House convenes at noon for morning hour and 2 p.m. for legislative business. The Senate convenes at 3 p.m.
| | THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Florencio Briones correctly answered that Warren and Warner are the two current U.S. senators whose last names are anagrams of each other. TODAY’S QUESTION from Florencio: Which U.S. presidential candidate holds the record for the most second-place finishes? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. Correction: Thursday’s Huddle misreported how many presidential swing states have Senate elections in 2024. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela. | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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