Should Trump be sweating the 14th Amendment lawsuits?

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Nov 01, 2023 View in browser   By Calder McHugh Judge Sarah B. Wallace presides over a hearing for a lawsuit to keep former President Donald Trump off the Colorado state ballot in court today in Denver. | Jack Dempsey/AP DEFINE INSURRECTIONIST — This week marks an important moment in a debate that could have an enormous impact on the 2024 presidential race: the kickoff of court arguments as to whether Donald Trump is eligible to run for president. At issue is Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which states that no one holding office “shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion.” Trump’s actions on January 6, some conservative and liberal legal scholars argue, fall under that definition, and thus disqualify him from appearing on ballots. A proceeding that began in Colorado on Monday has already heard testimony from legal experts and two police officers at the Capitol on Jan. 6, while a similar case in Minnesota starts Thursday. The legal theory — which is catnip for Trump haters — went mainstream in August, after two prominent conservative lawyers argued that not only is Trump barred from serving, but that secretaries of state who oversee elections should also have the power to remove him from the ballot. That slice of the theory has landed with a thud. No secretary of state in the nation — liberal or conservative — has signed on to the idea that they have the power to bar Trump from competing in elections. Most states have no law on the books that allows secretaries of state to judge presidential candidates; state officials are so far unwilling to endorse the idea that the 14th amendment is “self-executing,” or that they have the power to unilaterally pluck a name off of a contest. In a September op-ed, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who’s a Democrat, argued that it’s not the responsibility of secretaries of state to decide this question. Ditto for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the Republican who pushed back — at great political cost — against Trump’s requests in 2020 to “find more votes.” Raffensperger made a similar argument in the Wall Street Journal. So, now anti-Trump forces are looking for a court ruling that Trump is ineligible, sidestepping the “self-executing” issue. The cases in Colorado and Minnesota touch on some of the same themes as the Trump criminal cases related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. “Trump incited a violent mob to attack our capitol to stop the peaceful transfer of power under our Constitution,” said lawyer Eric Olson, arguing for a group of Colorado voters and an advocacy organization bringing the complaint. Trump’s attorney Scott Gessler argued that Trump “didn’t carry a pitchfork to the Capitol grounds and lead a charge to get into a fistfight with legislators… He gave a speech in which he asked people to peacefully and patriotically go to the Capitol to protest.” The attempts to ban Trump from running in the first place also give the former president’s lawyers another lane for a defense: that groups trying to get him off the ballot are attempting to subvert the will of the voters themselves. Along those lines, Trump’s legal team has recently gone on the offensive on the issue, suing Michigan’s Benson for creating “uncertainty” by not responding to the Trump campaign’s inquiries about his ballot eligibility. In Colorado, Judge Sarah B. Wallace is expected to issue a written ruling at some point after arguments wrap up, which will likely be at the end of this week. But both sides assume the fight won’t end there; it could be appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court. Even in a worst case scenario for him, Trump could weather decisions ruling he is ineligible for the Colorado or Minnesota ballots — he’s lost both states twice already and has a path to Electoral College victory without them. It’s other states — like Michigan, a key presidential battleground — which could pose a more significant problem, especially when piled atop the multitude of other legal woes already on his plate. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2023 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from November 6-8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest public health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE.     What'd I Miss? — Biden administration thinks Netanyahu may not last politically: Joe Biden and top aides have discussed the likelihood that Benjamin Netanyahu’s political days are numbered — and the president has conveyed that sentiment to the Israeli prime minister in a recent conversation. The topic of Netanyahu’s short political shelf life has come up in recent White House meetings involving Biden, according to two senior administration officials. That has included discussions that have taken place since Biden’s trip to Israel, where he met with Netanyahu. Biden has gone so far as to suggest to Netanyahu that he should think about lessons he would share with his eventual successor, the two administration officials added. — Donald Trump Jr. takes witness stand in civil fraud case against his father’s business empire: Donald Trump Jr., began testifying today in the $250 million civil trial in which both men stand accused of widespread corporate fraud. Lawyers for New York Attorney General Tish James were expected to question Trump Jr. about his involvement in preparing financial documents related to his father’s net worth. James’ office has accused Donald Trump, his adult sons and business associates of fraudulently inflating the value of Trump’s assets in order to obtain favorable terms from insurers and banks. — Speaker Johnson tells Senate GOP he backs Ukraine aid, funding path through Jan. 15: Speaker Mike Johnson told Senate Republicans today that he supports aiding Ukraine — though he drew a hard line against combining it with money for Israel. Johnson’s stance presents a challenge to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who want to stitch together funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and U.S.-Mexico border security. But the newly elected speaker did give senators something to work with by making clear that he supports new money for Ukraine’s defense against Russia, even if it’s not comparable in size or scope to what President Joe Biden wants. Nightly Road to 2024 THE OCTOGENARIAN CHRONICLES — To hear Donald Trump tell it, President Joe Biden is so senile that he doesn’t know where he’s speaking and feeble enough that others are making decisions for him. Yet Trump has made notable flubs of his own, writes the Associated Press. The former president mixed up the city and state where he was campaigning last weekend and had to be corrected by a local official. He recently called Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the leader of Turkey and has repeatedly mispronounced the militant group Hamas as “hummus.” Biden is now 80 and Trump is 77. Trump was the oldest person elected to a first term — until Biden was. Today, the age factor is shaping up as an important issue in a possible rematch in 2024 of their first race, in 2020. NOT A DEBATE — Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican presidential candidate, and Ro Khanna, a Democratic member of the House, squared off today in New Hampshire in what was billed as a civil discussion between two Indian Americans over the future of the United States, reports the New York Times. But over the course of an hour at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Ramaswamy repeatedly slipped into his stump speech on the “black hole” in America’s collective heart and his belief that the nation was not, as he once thought, the declining Roman Empire, while Khanna tried to articulate his economic ideas and talk up the record of President Biden against his opponent’s blizzard of words. RURAL OUTREACH — The White House announced more than $5 billion in funding for agriculture, broadband and clean energy needs in sparsely populated parts of the country today as President Biden traveled to Minnesota to kick off an administration-wide tour of rural communities, reports the New York Times. The president’s efforts to focus attention on the domestic economy ahead of next year’s campaign come after three weeks in which his administration has been seized by events overseas following the terrorist attacks in Israel and the state’s subsequent military action in Gaza. The trip took place as Mr. Biden is urging Congress to quickly pass a $105 billion funding package that includes emergency aid to Israel and Ukraine, two conflicts he has described as threats to democracy around the globe. But the president and his aides are well aware that his hopes for a second term are likely to be determined closer to home. Rural voters like the ones he addressed at a corn, soybean and hog farm south of Minneapolis are increasingly voting Republican. NEW BLOOD — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has brought on a new presidential campaign manager, Alison Williams, one day after parting ways with his previous top staffer, NBC News reports. Williams served as Hutchinson’s chief of staff from 2016 to 2023 while he was governor. The staffing change comes as Hutchinson decided not to file for the primary ballot in South Carolina, citing the tough competition there between former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. AROUND THE WORLD Peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol the border area between Lebanon and Israel in southern Lebanon on October 13, 2023. | Joseph Eid/AFP via Getty Images PEACE(KEEPER) TALKS — Talks are underway to establish a multinational force in Gaza after Israel uproots Hamas, two senators confirmed today, the clearest sign yet that the U.S. and its partners are seriously weighing deploying foreign troops to the enclave, write Joe Gould, Alexander Ward and Nahal Toosi. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told POLITICO that there’s early, closed-door diplomacy over establishing a peacekeeping force in Gaza, though it was not likely to include American troops. “There are ongoing conversations regarding the possible composition of an international force,” Van Hollen said, refusing to go into specific detail. “They are very preliminary and fragile.” Blumenthal said the congressional delegation that he traveled with to Israel last month discussed the possibility of having Saudi Arabian troops in the force. He noted, however, that he hadn’t heard of U.S. troops heading to Gaza as part of the deliberations. “There certainly has been discussion with the Saudi about their being part of some international peacekeeping force if only to provide resources, and, longer term, supporting Palestinian leadership and a separate state, obviously. Reconstruction of Gaza will require a vast amount of resources, which the Saudis potentially could help provide,” he said.   GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE.     Nightly Number 5.4 percent The Federal Reserve’s key short-term interest rate — which Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell announced would not move during a news conference today. It’s the second straight time the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, after many quarters of rate hikes that led to the highest interest rate in 22 years. Powell also left the door open for further rate hikes if inflation accelerates. RADAR SWEEP DEADLY STRAIN — After a devastating 2010 earthquake in Haiti, public health officials were already bracing for the next crisis: a rainy landscape with displaced people that could lead to an outbreak of disease. They were right in some ways — cholera came on the heels of the earthquake. But the disease’s origins were surprising: a UN peacekeeping force on the island called MINUSTAH. For The Baffler, Pooja Bhatia investigates the origins of the cholera outbreak and the UN’s subsequent obfuscation of the situation. Parting Image On this date in 1961: “Women of Peace” demonstrators marched to downtown Cincinnati and paraded with signs stressing the theme of poison milk from nuclear fallout. | Gene Smith/AP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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