Virginia is the bellwether to watch next week

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Nov 03, 2023 View in browser   By Zach Montellaro Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and his wife Suzanne Youngkin arrive to a rally on Nov. 7, 2022 in Triangle, Va. | Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images SUBURBAN SMACKDOWN — Virginia isn’t expected to be competitive in next year’s presidential election. But don’t let a sleepy presidential cycle fool you — next week’s legislative races are some of the hottest contests since President Joe Biden took office. All 140 seats across the two legislative chambers are up for grabs on Tuesday, and both Democrats and Republicans in Virginia believe they have a path to complete control of the state legislature. There’s roughly a dozen-and-a-half battleground seats between the state House and Senate, and the demographics of many of them mirror where 2024 will be fought: Swingy, suburban districts that have raced away from former President Donald Trump. What makes these Virginia districts interesting is that they’ve shown they could still vote Republican. GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin improved on Trump’s margins in basically every key district identified by the Virginia Public Access Project and outright won many of them, en route to his upset win of the governorship two years ago. Should Republicans pull off the sweep Tuesday night, they’ll have complete control of state government in a commonwealth that is fairly reliably blue on the federal level. Virginia’s off-year elections are often seen as the best bellwether ahead of the following year’s federal elections. And that’s for good reason: Both parties are testing out messages that we will almost assuredly see on a much grander scale next year. For Democrats, it has been another campaign focused on abortion rights. Democratic television ads mentioned abortion about 2.5 times more frequently than the party’s second most talked about issue, education, according to data from the advertising tracking firm AdImpact. The big difference this time is that Republicans are punching back — rather than ignoring — the issue that sank them during the midterms. Youngkin’s political operation has spearheaded a push for Republicans in the state to rally around a 15-week ban, with exemptions for rape and incest, launching a seven-figure ad campaign promoting it and calling Democrats the real extremists. Democrats shoot back that the 15-week proposal — which is more strict than the state’s current law — is really a Trojan horse for even harsher limits down the road. The messaging, Youngkin’s top aides told me and my colleague Steven Shepard last month, is not intended for Republicans to suddenly win on abortion, but to neutralize the issue. And abortion still isn’t their top issue: The bread and butter of GOP advertising remains crime and public safety in the state. Tuesday’s contests here — and in other big statewide races like Kentucky — will also stress test how much Biden’s low approval ratings actually hurt Democrats at the ballot box. Since the end of Roe, the answer has been not particularly: Democrats overperformed in the midterms and ran well ahead of Biden in a series of special elections over the last year. Biden is unpopular in Virginia; In a mid-October survey from The Washington Post/Schar School, just 43 percent of registered Virginia voters approved of the job Biden was doing, and 55 percent disapproved. But there also hasn’t been much of “Biden as the boogeyman” advertising in Virginia, a contrast to what we’re seeing in the much redder Kentucky, where Republicans are relentlessly trying to nationalize the governor race there ahead of Tuesday. But should Democrats lose on Tuesday in Virginia, it would still be an ominous sign for Biden — and the Democratic Party more broadly — for 2024. And there’s one more, ahem, 2024 elephant in the room: The push by some Republican donors to get Youngkin to launch a white knight presidential campaign in an effort to stop Trump in the primary. Setting the almost logistically infeasible move aside for a moment, the braying for Youngkin from a vocal but apparent minority of the GOP makes sense. Here’s a guy who has shown he can win in a blue-ish state, who has connections to donors (and the personal wealth) to run a huge campaign, and has demonstrated raw political talent. Youngkin has given the same answer for the last year-plus when asked about the presidency: He’s humbled, but he’s focused on Virginia’s legislative elections. You don’t have to squint too hardly to see how that’s not a no. But he’s also been disciplined about not really straying from that answer — so much so that when I joined Youngkin on the trail two weeks ago at a rally in a suburban office park parking lot outside of Richmond, none of the assembled press bothered to even ask about his aspirations for the other side of the Potomac, lest we waste our valuable gaggle time. But by this time next week, that excuse will be gone. And Youngkin will either be robbed of a political mandate by a Democratic win (or a split decision) — or the begging and pleading for him to get into the race from donors desperately looking for a savior will only grow. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at zmontellaro@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ZachMontellaro.   CONGRESS INSIDER: Congress has always been the cornerstone of POLITICO's Washington coverage, and now we're doubling down to ensure you have a complete picture of everything happening under the Capitol Dome, 24/7. Begin your day with Playbook AM, recharge at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and empower your evening convos with Huddle. Also, stay continuously updated with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.   What'd I Miss? — Trump’s lawyers in fraud trial step up their gripes about judge’s clerk: A long-simmering spat between Donald Trump’s lawyers and the judge overseeing Trump’s ongoing civil fraud trial flared up again today when they engaged in nearly 30 minutes of debate about the judge’s principal law clerk, Allison Greenfield, who has been a target of the former president since the start of the trial. On Thursday, the judge accused Trump lawyer Chris Kise of possibly misogyny after Kise made a passing reference to Greenfield. That also prompted the judge to threaten to broaden his gag order. At the beginning of court proceedings today, Kise continued to seize on Greenfield, suggesting she has shown “demonstrable bias or at least the appearance of that,” citing a news story he eventually disclosed was from the right-wing online outlet Breitbart, drawing audible groans in the courtroom. — Santos says he’d run again if expelled: Expulsion wouldn’t derail Rep. George Santos. The Long Island Republican, facing federal fraud charges, signaled he will run again for his House seat next year if lawmakers successfully expel him from office. Santos pointed to his own victory last year for a House district won by President Joe Biden in 2020 as a sign of his political strength. “Could I have won the general election last time? Nobody said I could. But I survived,” Santos told CNN in an interview set to air Sunday. — Former Trump State Department official sentenced to 70 months for Jan. 6 assaults: A former Trump administration State Department official has been sentenced to 70 months in prison for joining the violent Jan. 6 mob that pummeled police officers in the Capitol’s Lower West Terrace tunnel. Federico Klein, a Trump-appointed official involved in U.S. foreign policy toward South America until Trump left office, was seen on video pushing against beleaguered and outnumbered officers during an hours long confrontation that was among the most violent episodes of the day. His sentence closes one of the earliest chapters in the investigation of the Jan. 6 attack, beginning with his arrest in March 2021. Nightly Road to 2024 CASH INFUSION — One of Mike Pence’s biggest donors is shifting his support to Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign after the former vice president suspended his 2024 run last week, reports POLITICO’s Meredith McGraw. The move is the latest among top Republican donors to Haley’s campaign, as the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador rises in the GOP primary. Investor Keith Rabois, a Florida-based venture capitalist, Texas-based real estate developer Harlan Crow and Fidelis Realty Partners co-founder Lynn Davis, have all recently hosted fundraisers for Haley. And this month, former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn is hosting a fundraiser for her in New York. CHARM OFFENSIVE — Former President Donald Trump is wooing Florida Republicans before and after this weekend’s big Republican gathering in Central Florida — his latest move to undercut Ron DeSantis in the governor’s own state, reports POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard. DeSantis and Trump will join other GOP presidential candidates and top Florida Republicans speaking at the state GOP’s Freedom Summit in Kissimmee Saturday. Trump, who’s still dominating the polls in early states and nationally, will close out the event while DeSantis will deliver a speech earlier in the day. Trump’s team in recent days has been trying to shore up support among the Sunshine State’s key Republicans. He sent invitations to local party leaders to join him at a rally in Hialeah scheduled for Nov. 8 — the same day as the Republican debate next week in Miami that he refused to attend. To entice the invitees, Trump is offering them “special guest seating” and “expedited entry” to the rally, which will be held at a stadium, and attendees can bring a guest to the event in Hialeah, a Hispanic-majority Miami neighborhood, according to an invitation viewed by POLITICO. The passes will give guests a way to skip long lines and offer better seating at the event. AROUND THE WORLD President Joe Biden listens on as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reads a statement before their meeting in Tel Aviv on Oct. 18, 2023. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images OFFER SNUBBED — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s calls for a humanitarian pause shortly after the latter’s press conference today, saying Israel will continue to bombard the Gaza Strip with “all of its power,” writes Matt Berg. Blinken told reporters in Israel that during a meeting with Netanyahu earlier that day, he urged Israel to pursue a pause in fighting and gave advice about how to minimize Palestinian civilian deaths while targeting Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu soon after said, during his own press conference, that Israel “refuses a temporary cease-fire that doesn’t include a return of our hostages.” Over 200 hostages were taken by Hamas following the militant group’s surprise attack on Israeli soil on Oct. 7 that killed 1,400 people. It’s the latest sign of stark disagreement between the two allies, as the Biden administration has in recent weeks called for restraint from Israel as it continues a massive airstrike campaign on the Gaza Strip. Over 9,000 Palestinians have been killed over the last month, and more than half of Gaza residents have been displaced from their homes. Blinken said a humanitarian pause is needed to ensure that aid can be delivered to the territory and that the 2.3 million civilians in the Gaza Strip can find safety. During a Wednesday campaign speech, President Joe Biden said “I think we need a pause” after the event was interrupted by a protester. PRESSURE COOKER — President Joe Biden is facing growing pressure from fellow Democrats and foreign allies to flesh out an economic partnership with Latin America that the White House has promised will tackle immigration, regional trade and China’s efforts to expand its influence in the region, writes Ari Hawkins. That was on display in Washington today, as Biden hosted leaders from the Western Hemisphere to discuss the pact, which he first rolled out in June 2022. It was supposed to respond to Latin American leaders’ calls for more trade and investment opportunities with the U.S. But the lack of detail and shifting format of the agreement are drawing criticism from lawmakers and skepticism from regional leaders. The White House’s efforts to tie the agreement to its own domestic agenda — suggesting better economic integration in the region will help address the root causes of migration from the South — are likely only to deepen Latin American negotiators’ concerns that what was supposed to be an economic package for the region is getting hijacked by U.S. election politics. All the while, China continues to expand its economic reach in the hemisphere. Nightly Number 150,000 The number of jobs that U.S. employers added in October, a modest number that’s still a sign that the labor market remains resilient despite economic uncertainties and high interest rates that have made borrowing much costlier for companies and consumers. RADAR SWEEP YESTERDAY, A NEW AI-SONG TO PLAY — The first AI-generated Beatles song — and presumably the last song to feature all four Beatles members — has officially dropped. The four minute song, titled “Now and Then,” was released yesterday, with an accompanying music video released today. The song was considered lost, but with AI technology created during the Beatles “Get Back” docuseries, director Peter Jackson was able to salvage the song from a demo recording. Read more from WIRED’s Angela Watercutter on the new (yet old) Beatles song and the AI-saved songs to come. Parting Image On this date in 1993: The funeral of Italian film director Federico Fellini takes place in Rome, Italy. Thousands of Romans paid tribute to the movie director, who died in Rome on October 31, after two weeks in a coma. Fellini was buried in his home town of Rimini. | Roberto Mezzetti/AP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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