A decade of global climate pacts hasn’t been able to contain the world’s thirst for fossil fuels, and the deal in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this week is unlikely to close that spigot. Global climate negotiators made history this week at COP28 when they agreed to begin “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. The 2015 Paris Agreement made its own mark when the world sought to limit warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius. And then another footnote was made six years later, in Glasgow, Scotland, when negotiators agreed to phase out coal. But emissions have continued to climb in spite of it all. This year, carbon dioxide pollution from oil, coal and natural gas is on track to hit 36.8 billion tons, the highest level ever. Climate deals like the one struck at COP28 are useful in shaping public opinion and establishing a measuring stick for gauging countries’ progress, said Michael Mehling, deputy director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But they do not contain enforcement mechanisms to ensure countries follow through on their promises. As for real-world impact? “It trickles through in a very loose fashion with no direct correlation,” Mehling told E&E News in a story published today. The Global Carbon Project, a team of international climate scientists, estimates the world only has seven years at current emission levels before global temperatures breach 1.5 degrees. Leading scientists have warned that rapidly phasing out fossil fuels is key to reversing that trend. Right now, however, the world is burning record amounts of coal. Oil consumption has also reached record levels. The United States is pumping more crude than ever and developing nations like Nigeria, which just opened a major refinery last week, are still banking on fossil fuels to power their economies. Energy markets have largely shrugged off global climate pledges, with investors betting fossil fuel companies will earn healthy profits, said Bobby Tudor, the founder and former CEO of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., an investment bank specializing in energy. Technological advancements and cost declines are ultimately bigger drivers in the way the world consumes energy, he said. “Yes, there is a desire by consumers to transition to cleaner forms of energy. But it is only going to happen if those cleaner forms of energy come at the same price or less and at the same level of reliability or more,” said Tudor, who now leads Artemis Energy Partners, an investment firm specializing in early stage energy transition projects. “My bias is that it is going to be a very, very long, slow transition.”
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