Does the dwindling House GOP majority matter?

Presented by Humana: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Dec 15, 2023 View in browser   By Daniella Diaz, Anthony Adragna and Katherine Tully-McManus Presented by Humana With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Speaker Mike Johnson could stand to lose only two GOP votes to a unified Democratic minority. | Francis Chung/POLITICO JOHNSON’S MARGIN CALL House Republicans already have one of the narrowest majorities in congressional history, and it’s about to get even tighter. With George Santos (R-N.Y.) gone, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) planning to resign at the end of the year and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) exiting soon after that, Speaker Mike Johnson will have little room to maneuver if he hopes to pass partisan bills once lawmakers come back in January. With those members gone and full attendance otherwise, Johnson could stand to lose only two GOP votes to a unified Democratic minority. But will it matter? Here’s a few factors to keep in mind as we look ahead to 2024: — A fluid timeline: Republicans might only be down three members for a few weeks. The special election to replace Santos is set for Feb. 13, though it’s completely up in the air whether the GOP will retain the seat. (Local party officials yesterday chose Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip to face former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi.) Because Johnson and McCarthy have yet to officially resign, the ensuing special elections have yet to be scheduled. There are rumblings in California that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could consolidate the race with the March 5 primary, while in Ohio, GOP Gov. Mike DeWine will have broad latitude to schedule the election for Johnson’s replacement. Republicans are favored to retain both seats. Also, keep in mind that Democrats are expecting a vacancy of their own: Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) said he plans to resign in February. — A bipartisan to-do list: There’s no doubt that both McCarthy and Johnson have had trouble passing party-line bills in 2023. One stunning indicator: Conservative hard-liners defied leadership and defeated rules for four bills this year. Instead, major legislation has passed routinely with Democratic votes. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, which raised the debt ceiling and set discretionary spending caps, advanced overwhelmingly after 52 Democrats joined with Republicans to pass a rule bringing it to the floor. More recently, both McCarthy and Johnson have moved to bypass the House Rules Committee entirely by bringing spending bills and, most recently, the National Defense Authorization Act to a vote under suspension of the rules, requiring a two-thirds vote. Looking at 2024’s must-pass bills, it’s easy to see Johnson finding Democratic help once again. There’s a bipartisan path to passing appropriations legislation around twin Jan. 19/Feb. 2 deadlines, and any deal to pass a supplemental tackling Ukraine aid and border security will by definition be bipartisan (more on that below). Similarly, there will likely be Democratic support for FAA reauthorization ahead of a likely March 8 deadline, while the controversy over renewal of the Section 702 surveillance program has crossed party lines, meaning any solution reached ahead of an April deadline will have to involve both sides of the aisle. — One big exception: On most issues Johnson will have to deal with next year, the biggest factor constraining him won’t be finding the raw votes but internal Republicans conference politics. It’s not clear how long a fractious right flank of the GOP will continue to give Johnson grace, despite a delicate balancing act. Relying on Democratic votes to pass a Sept. 31 continuing resolution set McCarthy's ouster into motion, and additional lopsided suspension votes could spell doom for Johnson, too. “I'm just going to be blunt: I think some of the staff is not looking at this thing the way it should be,” said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said of the supplemental negotiations. “And I've voiced my disagreements with staff on some of these issues." If anything has united the House GOP in 2023, meanwhile, it’s targeting Democrats. Republicans stuck together to censure Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), and so, too, did they stay united this week in launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. But it’s completely unclear whether the narrowest House majorities in recent memory will agree on actually impeaching Biden. They’ve got a little bit of time to figure that out: Investigators are hoping to make a decision about whether or not to pursue and draft articles of impeachment by late January. — Daniella Diaz, Anthony Adragna and Katherine Tully-McManus   A message from Humana: Medicare Advantage plans are making health care more affordable than ever for seniors and others with Medicare in rural communities: The average monthly premium for an MA plan in 2023 is $18, a 16-year low, and 69% of beneficiaries with MA plans in rural areas are enrolled in $0 premium plans. That means even more eligible Americans have access to the health care their doctors recommend at a price they can afford.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Dec. 15, where the season’s blessings include the Senate coming back on Monday. OVERTIME FOR BORDER TALKS As senators meet to hash out a deal linking border security with Ukraine funding, Speaker Mike Johnson is telling GOP allies that he won’t bring the House back until January, even if they manage to reach a deal and advance it through the Senate, according to a person familiar with the situation. A spokesperson for Johnson declined to comment, instead pointing to a statement in which Johnson said “the House will not wait around to receive and debate a rushed product.” That raises the prospect that the Senate could reach an agreement, or at least the outlines of one, only to see it pecked to bits by critics over a three-week holiday break. The talks are proceeding in any case: Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Biden administration officials met for hours on Friday in the Capitol to try and keep the ball moving, with a sunny Sinema declaring “good progress” on the tricky border talks. The group is now holding its second meeting of the day and plans to keep talking over the weekend. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Thursday he hoped to have a framework deal in place by the time the Senate comes back into session on Monday afternoon. What a deal needs: In our interview with Sinema yesterday, she described what a deal might look like in the Senate: 25-plus GOP votes at a minimum to help show the House that Republicans like the deal. “We need a majority of the minority and enough Democratic votes that we can send this to the House and show them that this is strongly bipartisan and can pass,” she said. Negotiators are also thinking about what the whip count looks like in the House. Murphy said while he deals with the negotiations, he’s keeping an eye and ear across the Capitol. He said he’s particularly mindful of the need for strong Democratic support in the House. “We've got a handful of Republicans in the Senate who will vote no, just simply based on the Ukraine funding,” he said in between meetings on Friday. “But that's a bigger problem over in the House.” — Burgess Everett, with Olivia Beavers   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     N.Y. GROUPS TO SCHUMER: DON’T CAVE ON IMMIGRATION Several grassroots groups in New York State have sent a letter to Schumer demanding Democrats not appease Republican demands on immigration. “Senate Republicans have insisted that Democrats accept the enactment of racist, bigoted, and xenophobic, anti-immigrant policies from the Trump playbook in exchange for their votes on military aid for Ukraine,” they wrote in the letter. “As leaders of organizations representing working families, immigrants, and diverse voices across the state, we stand in support of immigrant communities and urge you to oppose any deal that exchanges draconian immigration measures in exchange for military aid abroad.” The letter was signed by several groups, including the New York Working Families Party as well as the largest immigrant rights groups in New York: People's Action, Make the Road New York and the New York Immigration Coalition. — Burgess Everett and Daniella Diaz   A message from Humana:   HUDDLE HOTDISH House Ethics isn’t known for fun and laughs but their gifting-rules-themed holiday song might bring a smile.   POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show.     QUICK LINKS  'I'm not a progressive': Fetterman breaks with the left, showing a maverick side, from Sahil Kapur at NBC News 2024 candidate Dean Phillips called Pelosi and Feinstein old. Biden is his next target, from Ben Oreskes at The Los Angeles Times California’s Padilla personally warned Biden not to fold to GOP on immigration to aid Ukraine, from Erin B. Logan, Courtney Subramanian and Andrea Castillo at The Los Angeles Times Bernie Sanders vs. Big Food, from Food Fix GOP pushes Speaker Johnson to start picking sides in its endless battles, from Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney   A message from Humana: More Americans are choosing Medicare Advantage. Today, 40% of all eligible Medicare beneficiaries in rural counties are enrolled in an MA plan, four times the share in 2010. Their choices have also increased: Today, rural Medicare Advantage enrollees can choose from among 27 plans, on average—triple the number of plans available five years ago. Humana is committed to continuing to increase access to quality, affordable care in rural areas to support and enhance the lives of people who need it the most. In 2024, Humana will have plans in every county in 27 states and Puerto Rico, including offerings in 39 new counties—many of them rural. Learn more about Humana's presence in rural communities here.   MONDAY IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is in. MONDAY AROUND THE HILL Quiet. TRIVIA THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Jon Deuser correctly answered that the House and Senate have passed the NDAA for 62 years in a row. TODAY’S QUESTION: Rep. Nathaniel Hazard of Rhode Island kicked off what somber House tradition in 1820? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

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