Don’t mention the F-word

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Dec 10, 2023 View in browser   By Suzanne Lynch Presented by GOOD MORNING and welcome to Global Playbook! It’s the penultimate day of COP28 and the climate talks are entering their final stretch here in Dubai. I’m Suzanne Lynch, and, with the POLITICO team on the ground in the UAE, we’ll be bringing you through the discussions right through to the end (whenever that may be). BIG BIRTHDAY:  First, a shout-out to U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, who turns the big 8-0 today. Rumor has it that COP President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber hosted a special birthday bash for the veteran politician Saturday night. BFFS AGAIN:  Meanwhile, Al-Jaber and former Irish president/current climate superstar Mary Robinson appear to have buried the hatchet after the COP chief made some ill-advised comments to the chair of The Elders about there being “no science” behind demands for a fossil fuel phase-out. Here’s a photo of the two meeting on Saturday.  NOW TO THE BIG QUESTION — HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO THE COP FINISH LINE?  Technically, the talks are supposed to wrap up Tuesday morning, though if past COPs are anything to go by, they could drag on a lot longer. That said, the impossible could happen and the U.N. climate summit could actually end on time. Several delegates who spoke to POLITICO noted the real urgency by the host country to wrap things up, with al-Jaber eyeing an 11 a.m. Tuesday finish. A message from S&P GLOBAL COMMODITY INSIGHTS: To achieve your carbon goals, you need a carbon registry you can rely on. Our industry-leading Carbon Registry Software is the choice of over 30 global registries. Together, we’re making the carbon market transparent and secure. Choose essential Carbon Registry Software.   THE F-BOMB IN THE ROOM:  With the end in sight, it’s all coming down to one big issue: whether a fossil fuel phase-out will be included in the final text. Various options were being worked on last night, with a new text due this morning. Rise to the occasion:  “The time has come for all parties to constructively engage, I want everyone to show flexibility,” al-Jaber said Sunday. But it remains to be seen how far big fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia will bend. Back in town: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has arrived back in Dubai “because we are on the brink of climate disaster.” He tweeted: “I am here to renew my urgent appeal to leaders: Recommit to the 1.5°C warming limit. End the fossil fuel age. Deliver climate justice." D-day for al-Jaber:  Spain’s Minister for the Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, who represents EU governments in the negotiations, urged al-Jaber to take a more active role in the final stretch: “We’re in the hard moment where we need the clear engagement of the president of the COP,” she told my colleagues Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise in an interview. “He should be playing not only the role of a moderator, but the role of a leader trying to identify how we can open this pathway toward the outcomes that we need to get.” OPEC shows its true colors:  Ribera’s comments came after the secretary-general of OPEC, the world’s de-facto oil cartel, urged member countries — including the UAE and Saudi Arabia — to reject any text that targets the production and consumption of fossil fuels, bemoaning the “undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels.” MOOD MUSIC:  “Good vibes and the greatest inclusiveness” — those are the somewhat enigmatic words of Beijing’s climate czar Xie Zhenhua who, in the first press conference by the Chinese delegation since November 30, on Saturday expressed optimism that a deal was in sight. Reminder: China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter. TALK OF THE TOWN YES, IT’S HAPPENING:  COP is heading to Azerbaijan next year — the latest oil-rich country to host the U.N. climate talks. Baku’s bid will likely be signed off this week, Zia Weise and Sara Schonhardt write (it’s usually a formality). More bad optics:  Delegates in Dubai expressed disbelief that Azerbaijan, a country where fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of its exports, is set to host next year’s COP. “Off the record? I think it’s an abomination,” said one EU negotiator. “At least the Emiratis have been making some efforts to green their industry. Azerbaijan has shown zero interest in climate policy.” CLASH OF THE SUMMITS:  The latest dates under consideration for COP29: November 11-November 24, 2024. That would overlap with the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which is penciled in for November 18-19. The Brazilians seem on board … as long as the dates of the high-level portion of COP when leaders attend don’t clash with the G20 bash. POLITICO MUST-READ:  What does a born-again eco-warrior billionaire do at COP? Charlie Cooper and Karl Mathiesen find out in this must-read interview with Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest, Australia’s second-richest person. Forrest, who made his fortune in iron ore mining, has become an unlikely champion of the energy transition. Making a splash:  Forrest is brash, bold and hard to miss — particularly given one of his ammonia-capable ships has been berthed in Dubai Marina during COP, towering over the luxury yachts. Among the dignitaries Forrest has hosted on board: John Kerry. It’s all about the money:  Forrest, known in Australia by the nickname “Twiggy,” is passionate about the need for the world to drop fossil fuels. But he’s also clear-eyed about the need to make money. “Whether it’s out of the goodness of my heart or not, you cannot pay any salaries, cannot pay any taxes, cannot contribute to anyone unless you’re making profit,” Forrest said brusquely. “Making profit is the art of sustainability.” And speaking of money:  Wind farms, green hydrogen projects, canceling coal — they’re all drowning under borrowing costs, writes POLITICO’s Zack Colman. He analyzes how rising interest rates are imperiling the world’s climate goals.   A message from S&P GLOBAL COMMODITY INSIGHTS:   DISPATCH FROM THE BLUE ZONE EAT, PRAY, LOVE:  Take a break from all the madness and drop by the Indonesia Pavilion. It’s not quite a Bali resort, but it emanates some feel-good vibes. The outside wall is adorned with a heart-shaped collage of colorful post-it notes filled with upbeat comments and drawings. Namaste.  COOL OFF WITH CAMEL ICE CREAM:  Fancy a taste of a local delicacy? Be sure to make a pit stop at the camel ice cream counter in the Green Zone. It’s made from camel milk (not meat), and we’re told it tastes less rich and a little more salty than your garden-variety cone. H/t Sara Schonhardt and Zia Weise. THE COOL CATS OF COP:  They’ve been spotted roaming the pavilions and catching 40 winks to escape the soaring sun, but the exact identity of the COP28 cats has yet to be verified. Playbook reckons they’ll be here until the bitter end to see the final text through. That’s dedication. SPOTTED:  Members of the U.S. Congressional delegation heading to dinner with some corporate executives at the Hilton Dubai Palm Jumeirah Saturday night. FOOD TIP — BEST VIBE:  Alkebulan, the African dining hall in the Green Zone, offers great food and funky tunes. It’s been curated by James Beard-winning chef Alexander Smalls, who is famous for setting up New York’s Café Beulah and The Cecil — and his Tony- and Grammy-award-winning opera singing. WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY — Practical Solutions for Loss and Damage from National to Local Levels, Resilience Hub, Block B7, 9 a.m.-10 a.m.  — The Role of Youth in Smallholder Agriculture — Accelerating Climate Adaptation (Blue Zone, Side Event Room 2), 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m. Hosted by CGIAR, the Ban Ki-moon Centre for Global Citizens (BKMC), U.N. FAO and Fairtrade International.  — Multi-stakeholder action through Corporate Climate Litigation and Intergenerational Climate Justice, Side Event Room 8, B6, Blue Zone, 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. — Challenges and opportunities along the sustainable materials value chain 3 p.m.-3:45 p.m., McKinsey Pavilion, Knowledge Hub, Green Zone. — Transformative Leverage and Intervention Points for Climate and Biosphere Resilience, Resilience Hub, Blue Zone, noon-1 p.m. — Global Climate Action High-Level Event, Al Ghafat, Zone B1, Blue Zone, 4:30 p.m.-6 p.m.  — Nothing About Us Without Us: the crucial role of youth activists in achieving the just transition, Just Transition Pavilion, B7, Blue Zone, 10 a.m.-10:50 a.m. AND FINALLY THANKS to Zack Colman, Zia Weise, Karl Mathiesen, Sara Schonhardt, Bob King, Jack Lahart, Seb Starcevic. Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich. A message from S&P GLOBAL COMMODITY INSIGHTS: In a world of carbon chaos, you need a carbon registry you can rely on. Using financial-grade infrastructure, our carbon registry software is transparent and secure. We know that everyone’s needs are different, that’s why our experts work closely with you to customise our flexible modular software to suit you. And backed by our expertise in the carbon and environmental markets, our software continuously evolves to meet your needs. Both today, and tomorrow. Together, let’s power progress. Choose essential Carbon Registry Software.     Follow us on Twitter Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  Global Playbook  |  West Wing Playbook  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook  |  Paris Playbook Follow us

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