Good vibrations

Presented by Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids: The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.

Dec 21, 2023 View in browser   By Adam Cancryn, Sam Stein, Lauren Egan, Myah Ward and Benjamin Johansen Presented by Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from producer Raymond Rapada. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 2. We hope absence makes the heart grow fonder. The vibes are getting better. Americans are now more optimistic about the state of the economy than they have been in months. Data this week from the Conference Board’s index, which measures views of business conditions and the job market, amounts to a cornucopia of promising news for President JOE BIDEN. Recessionary fears are at their lowest point since 2022. Enthusiasm over the nation’s financial future is trending up. And more people are planning to make big-ticket purchases. It’s a snapshot of what the White House hopes will become a bona fide trend heading into 2024. “This improvement is consistent with a lot of the things that we’ve been talking about and that the president has been pursuing,” said JARED BERNSTEIN, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. “We know we have more work to do, but it looks clear that we’re moving in the right direction.” Yet for all the holiday cheer it’s bringing to the West Wing, the report also underscores a semi-daunting reality facing the administration: No matter how much the White House accomplishes politically, the nation’s economic mood — and maybe by extension, Biden’s reelection chances — will hinge largely on unpredictable forces. December’s jump in sentiment, for example, coincided with a rally in the stock market and a drop in gas prices. If voters are starting to feel better about the economy, experts said, it’s likely because of macro trends, not some newfound awareness of the tentpole pieces of legislation at the center of “Bidenomics.” “People love it when the stock market goes up, people love it when gas prices go down. Both those things have happened in a fairly big way over the last two months,” said IAN SHEPHERDSON, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Whether this is something the administration can legitimately claim all the credit for is another question altogether.” The White House argues that Biden’s underlying policies — from capping the price of insulin, to investing in clean energy, to cracking down on so-called junk fees — are the very drivers of the macroeconomic recovery people are now noticing. As Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN put it in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday, “Our economic position reflects actions the Biden administration has taken over the past three years.” But voter views of Biden’s economy have proven fickle before. The Conference Board’s confidence index spiked back in July, prompting declarations that the “vibe-cession” was over. It wasn’t. And as for those policies, the public still seems relatively in the dark. On Dec. 14, the firm Navigator Research conducted a focus group in three key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. What they found was that respondents were, indeed, sensing improvements in the economy. But it was inflation — specifically the cost of gas and groceries — affecting their views. Asked about key components of “Bidenomics,” many professed ignorance. Half of the 20 respondents said they’d heard about the president’s infrastructure bill and a dozen said they’d heard about the Inflation Reduction Act. But just three people said they’d heard about the CHIPS Act and the same number said they’d heard about the actions Biden had taken on those junk fees. That last figure, in particular, stood out. Tackling junk fees was supposed to be the great political elixir for Biden — so universally hated are those hidden costs that people would bow down to the pol who slayed them. In fact, in a survey from March, Navigator found 62 percent support for the Junk Fees Prevention Act from Republican respondents. But few in the focus groups had heard about the work. Biden allies maintain that voter awareness will rise as more people tune into the presidential race next year. The Biden campaign is expected to spend heavily to boost voter awareness as more people tune into the presidential race next year. But more than any one policy, Biden’s political prospects are likely to be shaped by the economic environment around him. “If you’re flying and you’re not charged a family fare because of the work the president did, yeah, it’s up to us to make that connection,” Bernstein said. But overall, “the key question is, are we on the right path? And I think the evidence is affirmative, and I think you’re seeing some of the glimmers of that.” MESSAGE US — Are you SOMEONE WHO HAS HEARD ABOUT BIDEN’S ACTIONS ON JUNK FEES? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!  POTUS PUZZLER Which first lady began the tradition of selecting a White House Christmas theme? (Answer at bottom.) The Oval HEY NEIGHBOR: Biden spoke to Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR on Thursday amid the latest surge of migrants at the nation’s southern border. The chat comes as the White House continues border talks with Senate negotiators. The Biden administration already heavily relies on the Mexican government to curb the deluge of migrants making the trek across the Western Hemisphere, and some of the key policies on the table would no doubt impact the U.S.’s southern neighbor. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also told reporters during Thursday’s press briefing that Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Secretary of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and White House Homeland Security adviser LIZ SHERWOOD-RANDALL would travel to Mexico in the coming days. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO WATCH: This video featuring a group of Cabinet officials touting the administration’s climate agenda in a (cringe-ish) social media trend. The officials highlighted the work being done to incorporate young people in the climate workforce. “We’re President Biden’s cabinet. Of course we’re conserving America’s beautiful forests, supporting wildfire response and delivering jobs in rural communities,” says Secretary of Agriculture TOM VILSACK, who, we’re sure, was the architect of the idea after binging similar videos on TikTok before he went to bed last night. Deputy communications director HERBIE ZISKEND and associate communications director MARIA MICHALOS shared the video on X. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: Anything about how Democratic leaders are calling on Biden to shift his campaign strategy to shore up support among voters. NBC’s SAHIL KAPUR reports that some of Biden’s allies are warning that the president needs to lay out a clear vision for a second term to motivate younger, more progressive voters to stick with him. Rep. MAXWELL FROST (D-Fla.), a member of the Biden campaign’s advisory board, told Kapur that it’s “not enough” to simply highlight Biden’s first-term achievements and trash former President DONALD TRUMP. And the AP’s BILL BARROW reports that a group of top Democratic strategists are circulating an analysis to party leaders raising alarm that low Black voter turnout could tank the president’s reelection, urging the party to rethink its strategy and go “beyond efforts that can be last-minute or superficial as they try to reassemble Biden’s 2020 coalition.” 2024... IT’S ALMOST HERE: Biden campaign manager JULIE CHÁVEZ RODRÍGUEZ shared a year-end strategy memo on Thursday, providing some details on what to expect from the campaign in the next year. Rodriguez wrote that they plan to announce leadership teams in every battleground state by mid-January and anticipate having thousands of staffers in place across the country by early summer. The president, vice president and campaign surrogates will also ramp up travel in the early months, she added. As for the president’s campaign message, Rodriguez wrote that “the threat Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has only grown more dire” and the campaign would continue to draw a sharp contrast between the two leaders. SPEAKING OF MORE CAMPAIGN TRAVEL: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS will kick off the new year by visiting Nevada and South Carolina, AP’s MEG KINNARD reports. Harris will first head to Las Vegas on Jan. 3, where she will meet with members of the influential casino workers’ Culinary Union before traveling to Myrtle Beach to address an annual women’s retreat of the African Methodist Episcopal Church, the oldest historically Black denomination in the U.S. FOR THOSE HAMILTON NERDS WHO REALLY NEED TO FIND ANOTHER MUSICAL: Here's another thing you can find joy in. CHRIS JACKSON, who plays GEORGE WASHINGTON in Hamilton, was pictured at what appears to be a holiday party at the White House posing in front of a portrait of, you guessed it, George Washington. No, we don't want to know what your favorite track is. And yes, we're partial to Helpless. H/T to GENE SPERLING for the photo.   A message from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: For decades, Big Tobacco has targeted Black communities and kids with menthol cigarettes. Smoking kills 45,000 Black Americans each year – the #1 cause of preventable death. Tobacco companies are lying about the impact of eliminating menthols so they can keep profiting off Black lives. President Biden, reject Big Tobacco’s lies and issue the menthol rule this year. Stand with Black doctors, nurses, civil rights groups, faith leaders and more. Delays cost lives. Learn More.   THE BUREAUCRATS PERSONNEL MOVES: GABRIEL BARNETT is now adviser for public engagement and deputy liaison to the American Jewish community at the White House. He continues to serve as senior legal assistant in the White House Counsel’s Office. — ALEXA BISHOPRIC is now House legislative affairs adviser for the Department of Energy. She most recently was a special assistant in DOE’s office of electricity. — The Biden administration is considering CFTC Commissioner CHRISTY GOLDSMITH ROMERO and OMB official JULIE SIEGEL for a Treasury Department role focused on banking and insurance, our DANIEL LIPPMAN and ZACH WARMBRODT report for Pro subscribers. The post, Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial institutions, is opening up following the departure of GRAHAM STEELE. Agenda Setting ANOTHER LETTER ON ISRAEL: On Thursday, a group of Democratic senators sent a letter to Biden expressing their concerns over the growing economic deterioration within the West Bank, as well as the rise in violence targeted at Palestinian civilians at the hands of Israeli settlers. The senators emphasized the need for Israel to take steps in stabilizing the West Bank, including providing the Palestinian Security Forces with the resources necessary to fend off violent settlers. It comes as Israel recently decided to cut a significant amount of tax revenues they collect from the Palestinian Authority, which is a large chunk of PA’s revenue. “We urge you and senior members of your Administration to continue to prioritize the resumption of these transfers in any conversations with the Israeli government as well as Palestinian Authority officials,” the senators write. BORING BUT IMPORTANT: In an effort to track how reliant U.S. companies are on Chinese technology, the Commerce Department announced that they will begin gathering information on “legacy semiconductors,” chips that are not cutting edge but important to the global economy, Bloomberg’s MACKENZIE HAWKINS and JENNY LEONARD report. The agency’s Bureau of Industry and Security will survey over 100 companies in auto, aerospace and defense this January to further understand how they use the chips. PLEADING TO NOT BE FORGOTTEN: Former Marine PAUL WHELAN, who has been imprisoned in Russia since 2018, told BBC in an interview Wednesday that he feels “abandoned” by the U.S., our MATT BERG reports. “I know the U.S. [has] all sorts of proposals, but it’s not what the Russians want,” Whelan told the BBC. “They go back and forth, like throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks.”   A message from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:   What We're Reading The Media Is All Wrong About Biden’s Poor Polling (POLITICO’s Jack Shafer) UN says more than 1 in 4 people in Gaza are ‘starving’ because of war (AP’s Najib Jobain, Jack Jeffery and Colleen Barry) The Return of Student-Loan Payments Has Been a Logistical Nightmare (WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Gabriel T. Rubin) The Oppo Book GRAHAM DERFNER, associate director of engagement for presidential correspondence, is a baseball fanatic. While at Northwestern University, Derfner played shortstop and second base for the school's club team, and, based on his team headshot, was quite the intimidating player. But most notably, during the 2014 and 2015 summers, Derfner was the head of the baseball program at Camp Moosilauke in Orford, N.H., where he would design a “unique class curriculum for 150 boys, ages 8 to 15,” according to his Linkedin. We do have one question for Graham, and it’s an important one. In this picture, you’re seen wearing a Cubs cap. But your Twitter profile header pictures a Yankees player. Please explain yourself at westwingtips@politico.com. POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER JACQUELINE KENNEDY. In 1961, Kennedy began the tradition, choosing “Nutcracker Suite,” which featured “ornamental toys, birds, and angels modeled after Pyotr Tchaikovsky’s ‘Nutcracker’ ballet,” according to the White House Historical Association. The theme would become so popular that future first ladies would emulate it, including by BARBARA BUSH and HILLARY CLINTON. A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it! Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   A message from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: For decades, Big Tobacco has targeted Black communities and kids with menthol cigarettes. Smoking kills 45,000 Black Americans each year – the #1 cause of preventable death. Tobacco companies are lying about the impact of eliminating menthols so they can keep profiting off Black lives. President Biden, reject Big Tobacco’s lies and issue the menthol rule this year. Stand with Black doctors, nurses, civil rights groups, faith leaders and more. Delays cost lives. Learn More.     Follow us on Twitter Lauren Egan @Lauren_V_Egan Myah Ward @MyahWard Ben Johansen @BenJohansen3   Follow us

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