McCarthy's exit and the ripple effects back home

Presented by Amazon: Inside the Golden State political arena

Dec 07, 2023 View in browser   By Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner Presented by Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2023. | Alex Brandon/AP DRIVING THE DAY: BUDGET ANXIETY — The extent of the fiscal pain that lawmakers and Gov. Gavin Newsom must confront next year is about to come into better focus. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office is expected to release its report this morning projecting the size of the deficit. Lawmakers and lobbyists are already bracing for spending cuts. THE BUZZ — California Republicans just can’t catch a break. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy will resign from Congress at the end of the year, he announced in an op-ed on Wednesday, throwing his own political future — and the fates of vulnerable California Republicans — into murky territory. His resignation comes as a disappointment, but not a surprise to his loyal supporters in Congress. McCarthy is well-liked in his district, but he would have faced withering campaign attacks over a dysfunctional Congress and his failure to rein in far-right members. It doesn’t exactly make for a great mailer. “He’s the hometown boy who made good, but then he had a tragic end,” Mark Salvaggio, a former Bakersfield City Council member, told POLITICO. “The reaction here locally is sadness, disappointment … but people understand. They respect his decision.” McCarthy aimed to strike an optimistic tone in announcing his departure, promising to stay “in the fight” even though he’ll no longer be in a position to do much fighting. He can still attempt to recruit candidates and raise money for them, but there’s a big difference between having the speaker in your corner and having a former member. As our colleague Sejal Govindarao pointed out earlier this year, McCarthy’s personal struggles have left Republicans in Biden-won House districts rudderless, especially in fundraising. “It’s going to be hard for them to replicate the operation that Kevin had,” said Rob Stutzman, a top Republican operative in California who has known McCarthy since his time in the statehouse in Sacramento. “They won’t be able to. Johnson doesn’t have the relationships and fundraising prowess.” As speaker, McCarthy also elevated the California GOP, in both visibility and power. Without him even in the building, incumbents like Reps. David Valadao, Mike Garcia, John Duarte, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel could be in serious trouble. Mike Madrid, a California Republican consultant who makes no secret of his disdain for the Trump-era version of his own party, put it in simple terms. “Investing in the California Republican party is like investing in Blockbuster,” he said. “The only reason people would was because they had a relationship with Kevin." Madrid said the bigger impact could be on the state party infrastructure. He said he expects Republicans will be able to fully fund candidates in battleground races without McCarthy (worth noting: GOP candidates have more cash on hand than Democrats in seven of the state’s 10 most-watched House districts). The logistics: The governor is expected to call a special election for the remainder of McCarthy's term. It would be held simultaneously as the March primary and November general election, meaning the candidates would likely appear multiple times on the ballot. The contenders: Potential replacements include state Sen. Shannon Grove and Assemblymember Vince Fong. Grove, one of the more right-leaning Republicans in the statehouse, received huge recognition this year for forcing passage of a human trafficking bill. Fong, who used to work as McCarthy’s district director, maintains close ties to the former speaker, and even called him “one of my best friends” in an Instagram post on Wednesday. Neither Grove nor Fong returned our messages asking about a bid for the seat, but both released public statements praising McCarthy for his years of leadership. — with help from Jeremy B. White and Melanie Mason  GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.   A message from Amazon: Amazon pairs comprehensive health, retirement, and parental leave benefits with free education and skills training programs so hourly employees get the support they need to succeed. “I moved to Amazon because of the pay and benefits,” said Adrienne, who started at a fulfillment center and is now a UX designer for Amazon Prime. Learn how Amazon supports employees.   PLAYBOOK TIP LINE — Are you considering running for Congress? Are you Shannon Grove or Vince Fong? Give us a ring or drop us a line. Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on Twitter —@DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. TRIVIA NIGHT: We’re hosting a holiday-themed trivia night in Sacramento! Join POLITICO’s California team on Dec. 12 for an evening of political wonkery and libations at the Fox & Goose Public House on R Street. The games start at 6 p.m. RSVP here. P.S. Prize for the most festive and/or hideous holiday outfit!   Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Share what you think in a short, 1 minute survey about one of our advertisers   SPOTTED: GARCIA’S ‘TED LASSO’ MOMENT — Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia, the first member to call for the expulsion of George Santos, put a sign up in his Capitol Hill office months ago that read “Restore Truth. Restore Accountability. Expel George Santos.” After last week’s ouster, Garcia’s staff updated the sign with Post-it notes in the past tense. Staffers joke that it’s their “Ted Lasso” moment, referring to the sitcom about an American coach who turns around an underdog British football team through motivational techniques like posting a “Believe” sign in the locker room. A poster celebrating the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) hangs over the entrance to Rep. Robert Garcia's (D-Calif.) office in Washington. | Sara Guerrero/Garcia's office FRESH INK Former San Diego city councilman and Republican congressional candidate Carl DeMaio speaks to supporters on election eve in San Diego on Nov. 3, 2014. | Lenny Ignelzi/AP FIRST IN POLITICO: A CAMPAIGN FOR CARL — Carl DeMaio, San Diego’s most bombastic Republican political antagonist, is hoping to take his grievances up to Sacramento, launching a campaign for the Assembly seat held by termed-out Republican Marie Waldron.    As Christopher Cadelago reports first, the firebrand conservative activist, talk-radio host and former council member from San Diego, is launching an insurgent run, promising to help revive a moribund state GOP with aggressive party-building. The district includes portions of San Diego and the cities of Santee and Poway. DeMaio will face off in the March 5 primary against the state GOP’s preferred candidate: Andrew Hayes, district director to state Sen. Brian Jones and a member of the Lakeside school board. Jack Fernandes, a biotech startup founder and real estate broker is also in the field. “I think the voters in this district know that I’m a fighter, and that while other Republicans will put their tail between their legs and cower or give up, I’m not going to go anywhere. I’m going to continue to fight till we take back the state,” DeMaio said.   A message from Amazon:   SENATE RACE UPDATE — A new poll puts Republican Steve Garvey at third place in the race for California’s Senate seat, trailing far behind Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, and just slightly ahead of Rep. Barbara Lee. The new stats from the Public Policy Institute of California underscore Lee’s continued struggle to get ahead, and signal that Garvey, who has done little campaigning since entering the race, could have some staying power. Porter and Schiff remain locked in a tight race for first place, with the difference between the two falling within the survey’s margin of error. Here’s the breakdown: Schiff - 21 percent Porter - 16 percent Garvey - 10 percent Lee - 8 percent Republican James P. Bradley - 4 percent Republican Eric Early - 3 percent Democrat Christina Pascucci - 1 percent  PROPOSITION  1 — If things keep going like this, Newsom won’t need to spend a dime campaigning for his mental health reform initiative and $6.4 billion bond proposal on the March ballot. More than two in three likely voters say they support Proposition 1, according to the new PPIC poll. The campaign, dubbed “Treatment Not Tents,” has barely kicked off and a majority of voters say it’s the right time for a bond and that the state’s mental health laws need updating. — Rachel Bluth   A message from Amazon: Amazon is making a positive impact across communities where they operate in California and beyond by providing jobs that include benefits starting day one and opportunities for growth through free skills training and pre-paid tuition. “Amazon helped align my passions to my career,” said Adrienne who started at a California fulfillment center and launched her UX design career through one of Amazon’s free, on-the-job training programs. See the impact.   WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY CAPITOL HILL BLUES — McCarthy and other members of California’s delegation share one thing in common: They agree life on Capitol Hill has become hellish amid partisan gridlock and the state’s diminished clout due to leadership changes. (Los Angeles Times) CASTRO’S MOVE  — Former HUD Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Julián Castro will lead the Latino Community Foundation. The San Francisco-based group is the largest Latino-focused foundation in the country. (San Francisco Chronicle) PLAYBOOKERS IN MEMORIAM — Mary Astrid Bergan, former president of the California Federation of Teachers died Nov. 30, in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, after a long illness. Bergan was elected CFT President in 1991 and served in that role for 16 years. BIRTHDAYS — (was Wednesday:) Dana Brisbane … TRANSITIONS — Latino Community Foundation announces former HUD Secretary and former presidential candidate Julián Castro as its next CEO. MEDIA MOVES — Hamed Aleaziz is joining the New York Times to cover immigration and DHS. He previously covered immigration for the L.A. Times. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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