Washington’s UN conundrum

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Dec 20, 2023 View in browser   By Matt Berg and Nahal Toosi The death toll among Palestinians is hovering at an estimated 20,000 as Israel retaliates for Hamas militant attacks that killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7. | Fatima Shbair/AP Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Mona Zhang and Maggie Miller The Biden administration faces mounting pressure at the United Nations to sign on to a Security Council resolution that aims, at a minimum, to boost humanitarian aid into Gaza. Critics argue Washington’s resistance so far — and the possibility that it could veto the measure — threaten to further erode its reputation as a global human rights champion. Action on the resolution has already been delayed three times as negotiations continue, with a vote now scheduled for Thursday morning. The HuffPost’s AKBAR SHAHID AHMED reported this morning that President JOE BIDEN likely wants the U.S. mission to the U.N. to veto it. Discussions were still continuing as of early this afternoon. The U.S. has frequently used its veto power on the Security Council to support Israel, but it’s becoming a more fraught move as the war in Gaza drags on. The death toll among Palestinians is hovering at an estimated 20,000 as Israel retaliates for Hamas militant attacks that killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7. Most of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza have been displaced. And U.S. appeals to Israel to be more careful in its targeting appear to have little effect, drawing even more attention to Washington’s stance at the U.N. The U.S. view is that such Security Council resolutions need to be more balanced — criticizing Hamas, not just targeting Israel, for one thing. U.S. officials also don’t support a total cease-fire, because they believe it will give Hamas time to regroup and once again attack Israel. They’re more supportive of shorter humanitarian pauses. This position has infuriated other countries — not only Arab countries, but also many in Africa, Latin America and even some in Europe. They say Israel’s actions are disproportionate and unfairly punitive toward Palestinian civilians who had no role in the Oct. 7 attack. Israel counters that Hamas has been hiding within civilian locations, complicating operations. U.S. adversaries such as Russia, meanwhile, are using the moment to argue Washington is hypocritical. For instance, it rallies others at the U.N. to condemn Moscow for attacks on Ukrainian civilians, but won’t back resolutions that appear designed to support Palestinian civilians. “Our general position has been clear. We agree that the situation in Gaza is dire, and we want to see the Council support the actions on the ground that are delivering results,” NATE EVANS, a spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the U.N., told NatSec Daily. The draft resolution on Monday called for an “urgent and sustainable cessation of hostilities,” but the language was watered down in a new draft circulated earlier today, per The Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER. The newer draft calls for the “urgent suspension of hostilities to allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and for urgent steps towards a sustainable cessation of hostilities.” That was an effort to win the U.S. over, Ahmed reports, adding that U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD made an “in-person” attempt to sway Biden. "We're trying, we really are,” Thomas-Greenfield told reporters Tuesday. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told reporters today that the U.S. wants to ensure that the resolution, whose language is in constant flux, “doesn't do anything that could actually hurt the delivery of humanitarian assistance [or] make it more complicated.” Biden himself has urged Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to allow a “continuous flow" of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip, showing it’s a genuine concern for the U.S. But pressure is growing on Biden to take a harder line toward its closest ally in the Middle East: A group of prominent humanitarian organizations called on Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN today to halt military and other aid to Israel over its operations in Gaza, our own LARA SELIGMAN scoops. A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more.   The Inbox POST-WAR TALKS: Hamas’ political leaders have been talking with their Palestinian rivals about how to govern the Gaza Strip and West Bank once the conflict with Israel ends, The Wall Street Journal’s BENOIT FAUCON, SUMMER SAID and DOV LIEBER report. It’s the clearest indication that the group is planning for after the war, but it also underscores the divide between Hamas’ political leaders and the militant wing of the group battling Israel: “We don’t fight just because we want to fight,” HUSAM BADRAN, a member of group’s political bureau, told WSJ. “We want the war to end.” Meanwhile, The Israeli government has drawn up a new deal for the release of dozens of hostages from Gaza, an official with direct knowledge of the matter told our own ERIN BANCO. The pact calls for a pause in fighting for up to a week and the release of 40 hostages, including many of the women and children Hamas had previously agreed to release, as well as hostages who require medical attention, the official told Erin. It also would allow for the flow of additional humanitarian aid into Gaza. The official stressed that talks are ongoing, and a deal has yet to be officially reached. ISMAIL HANIYEH, the top political leader of Hamas, spoke with Egyptian officials in Cairo today to discuss a possible cease-fire, The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY, BEN HUBBARD and AARON BOXERMAN report. ‘FAT LEONARD’ HANDED TO US: Venezuela is set to release 10 Americans as part of a major prisoner swap that includes handing to Washington LEONARD GLENN FRANCIS, the fugitive defense contractor at the center of the largest corruption scandal in U.S. military history, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and Nahal report. Senior Biden administration officials also told reporters that Biden has agreed to release Colombian businessman ALEX SAAB, who was accused by the U.S. of laundering some $350 million in a scheme that involved bribing Venezuelan officials. Saab is a close ally of Venezuelan strongman NICOLAS MADURO. Francis, also known as "Fat Leonard," was apprehended by Venezuelan officials last year after escaping U.S. sentencing. Overall, more than 30 people, including Venezuelan opposition figures, are included in the deal. UKRAINE’S NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTION: Ukraine’s spies aim to intensify intelligence operations and conduct sabotage strikes deep in Russian-controlled territory next year, the head of Ukraine’s SBU security service told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA (for Pros!). “We cannot disclose our plans. They should remain a shocker for the enemy. We prepare surprises,” Maj. Gen. VASYL MALYUK told Veronika. “The occupiers must understand that it will not be possible to hide. We will find the enemy everywhere.” While he dodged specifics, Malyuk did give some hints. Logistics targets and military assets in occupied Ukrainian territory are likely to continue to be a focus. And then there are strikes that hit the enemy across the border. One area of focus will be Crimea and the Black Sea, building on this year’s operations. Read: Zelenskyy wants more details before authorizing half a million new troops by Veronika A PROMISE AND A THREAT? Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING told Biden that Beijing will take back Taiwan, but that there’s no decision yet on when, NBC News reports. The conversation, held during the pair’s recent summit in San Francisco, was blunt, but Xi did say he preferred such reunification take place peacefully, according to the report, which cited unnamed current and former officials. Chinese officials had earlier asked Biden to make a public statement supporting China’s aim of peaceful reunification and opposing Taiwanese independence. U.S. officials rejected that idea. Xi has made similar comments in the past. His decision to repeat the sentiments in private with the U.S. president, however, suggests American efforts to deter Beijing from designs on Taiwan are having limited effect at best. Xi’s remarks also come ahead of an important presidential election in Taiwan next month. The island, meanwhile, remains far from ready to fend off a Chinese military invasion, officials and analysts tell Bloomberg. HOUTHIS SEE A WAY TO GAIN STATURE: The Houthis of Yemen say they’re undeterred by the launch of a maritime coalition aimed at preventing the militia’s missile, drone and other attacks on commercial vessels, The New York Times’ VIVIAN NEREIM and SHUAIB ALMOSAWA report. “The Yemeni position is clear,” ABDULLAH BEN AMER, a high-ranking Houthi official, told the Times. The Houthi’s attacks will stop when “the Israeli war on the people of Gaza stops.” The Houthis, which are backed by Iran, say their attacks are aimed at stopping the Israel-Hamas war. It’s a narrative that fits well with the militia’s long-standing anti-U.S., anti-Israel views. The Houthi attacks also seem to be bolstering the standing of the once-scrapping rebel group in a region where popular anger at Israel is at extraordinary highs. HAPPY BIRTHDAY, SPACE FORCE: It’s been four years since the Space Force was created under the Trump administration and, boy, what a four years it has been. May your celebrations be out of this world. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1. 2024 ‘A HUGE POLITICAL FORCE’: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER sees a major threat to the fate of any future deal to pair stricter border policy with billions of dollars in foreign aid: DONALD TRUMP, our own URSULA PERANO, BURGESS EVERETT and ANTHONY ADRAGNA report. Schumer made clear in an interview today with our colleagues that he's counting on the ideological middle of the GOP to save Biden's national security spending package — not just from conservative pressures, but from Trump’s scorn. Schumer said he expects roughly five Senate Republicans to vote for a deal no matter what, 15 to vote against it no matter what, and that the rest could all be swayed by Trump as the presidential primary formally kicks off next month. It’s a sign that, despite the election being almost a year away, Trump is already causing politicians to worry about his return. “He is a huge political force in that party,” Schumer said. “And the question is … will they do the right thing, even though they know that Donald Trump will in a nasty, vicious way, attack them?” Read: Trump repeats anti-immigrant tirade, denies reading Hitler by our own GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING Keystrokes MECHANISM AGAINST MOSCOW: A 10-country coalition announced today a new partnership with Ukraine to help provide it with a consistent flow of funding and support to defend against cyberattacks on critical systems, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The Tallinn Mechanism was first planned in May. The United States, Estonia, Denmark and Germany are among the members. Its launch comes a week after Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest telecom group, was hit by a cyberattack linked to Russia that left around 26 million Ukrainians without mobile and internet service for days. Russian cyberattacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure tend to increase during the winter season.     The Complex REIGN OF DRONES: Ukraine is ramping up efforts to make its own drones, with plans to produce a million small aircraft along with thousands of more hefty versions. The plans, according to Reuters, are part of a bigger Ukrainian effort to improve domestic defense production as it battles Russia. Kyiv is especially keen on beefing up its war industry as the United States and other partners appear increasingly less reliable when it comes to weapons transfers. Such production also could help the Ukrainian economy more broadly. The small drones are known as FPVs, or “first-person-view.” They were originally for personal use among civilians but have been modified for the war and are now in big demand. Russia uses them as well. Read: NASA’s moon landing mission will include a non-American, Harris says by Matt On the Hill 11 MONTHS LATER: After what feels like forever, the Senate confirmed nearly a dozen nominees for top military posts, marking the end of Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) remaining holds over senior promotions, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD reported Tuesday night. With senators rushing to wrap up before the holiday, Schumer secured a deal to confirm all 11 nominees for four-star positions by voice vote. Their confirmation ends Tuberville’s blockade of military nominations, which was in its 11th month. The Alabama Republican had been using the tactic to protest the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, despite harsh criticism from both parties, but it ended after failing to win any concessions from the administration. Broadsides I SEE YOUR ICBM AND RAISE IT: The United States, Japan and South Korea have teamed up for joint military drills to send a message to North Korea days after Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. The U.S. flew B-1B long-range bombers, while Japanese and South Korean fighter jets also participated off South Korea’s Jeju island, The Associated Press reported. It’s not the first time the U.S. has deployed such bombers in the region. North Korea views their use as proof of U.S. ill intent, and the question now is whether it will respond with more missile tests. North Korea earlier this week launched a Hwasong-18 missile into the sea; the missile is believed to be Pyongyang’s newest and most advanced ICBM. The U.S. and its allies say these and other North Korean ballistic missile launches violated U.N. resolutions. MOSCOW’S MONEY MAKER: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN signed decrees granting the Kremlin power to confiscate and forcibly sell off billions of dollars worth of assets belonging to European energy firms to new state-approved owners, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. The decree mandates the creation of new Russian-run companies to take over shares in the colossal Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, currently owned by Austria's OMV and Germany's Wintershall. The two European energy giants — both from countries that Moscow claims are "unfriendly" in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — together hold a 60 percent stake in the drilling site in Russia's icy far north. While the companies will theoretically be compensated for their investment, the amount they receive from the sale will be determined by the Russian state — a move that marks the biggest asset seizure in the country's recent history. Transitions — COLIN KAHL, a former senior Pentagon official in the Biden administration, has joined Macro Advisory Partners, as Vox’s JONATHAN GUYER pointed out. Kahl told us he joined in October. — JACKIE McGUINNESS is now comms director for the Office of Science and Technology Policy. She most recently was press secretary at NASA and is a Biden campaign alum. — Lockheed Martin’s board of directors has elected MARIA RICCIARDONE as vice president, treasurer and investor relations. She succeeds EVAN SCOTT as treasurer, who has been appointed as missiles and fire control chief financial officer. What to Read — PETER SCHROEDER, Foreign Affairs: The real Russian nuclear threat — JOHN BOLTON, The Washington Post: Iran’s growing aggression against America shows Biden’s weakness — LAURA DUBOIS and BEN HALL, Financial Times: How migration is pushing Europe to the right Tomorrow Today — The National Cathedral, 10 a.m.: Ceremony as representatives from the U.S. military services lay a wreath on President WOODROW WILSON's tomb on the 167th anniversary of his birth Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who vetoes everything we want to do with this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose diplomatic efforts always help us strike a deal. A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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