Will Putin or won’t he?

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Dec 05, 2023 View in browser   By Suzanne Lynch Presented by GOOD MORNING and welcome to Day 7 of COP28. If you’re wilting in the heat and struggling with sleep deprivation, relief is in sight. Thursday is “rest day” — the traditional COP halfway point when negotiators, delegates and journalists take time out to recharge the batteries ahead of the talks entering the final stretch. Tumbleweed town: Journalists who want to broadcast from the media zone on Thursday need special permission and must have “exceptional and absolutely necessary reasons to do so.” Sounds ominous. To work or not to work: But if you’re desperate to keep the fun going, there are plenty of COP-related activities happening around town: the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum is on at the Palm Jumeirah and the Climate Action Innovation Zone will be hopping at the Madinat Jumeirah Conference Center. Or you could always just head to the beach … PUTIN WATCH: But before you throw on your kaftan and turn off your phone, there’s one question on everybody’s lips today: Will he or won’t he? Vladimir Putin is visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE today — a rare foreign trip by the Russian president. It would be quite the statement if he drops by Dubai.   A message from SSE: Actions, not ambitions are what’s needed to secure our energy future, right now. That’s why we’re investing in a flexible energy system, including pioneering new carbon capture and hydrogen technologies. SSE. We power change. Find out more.   Would Putin get arrested if he does make an appearance? Unlikely. While the International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant out for Putin over the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia after the Kremlin’s invasion, neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE are party to the ICC treaty, so they’re not obligated to detain him. NAMIBIA BACKLASH: Meanwhile, Namibia’s President Hage Geingob is fighting a rearguard PR battle, amid fury that his four children are among the official delegation at COP28. The Namibian government insists the trip was paid by private funds; many back at home are fuming. JOHN KERRY’S MOST WANTED: Who would U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry like to interview? “I’d like to hear from one of your premier musicians, as to how they keep on being creative and moving forward with hope in the midst of all this chaos,” the former U.S. secretary of state told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy on this week’s Power Play podcast. His dream interviewee? Paul McCartney, Elton John or Bruce Springsteen — “We’d have a great time.” TAKING STOCK OF THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE REMIND ME WHY WE’RE HERE? The first few days of the COP28 climate conference featured so many lofty declarations and flashy promises that you’d be forgiven for asking what delegates are still doing here. But one big focus is the Global Stocktake. The what now? As my colleague Zia Weise writes in this excellent explainer, it’s essentially a report card on where the world stands eight years after signing the Paris Climate Agreement at COP21. Spoiler alert: The stocktake has already happened, with the U.N. publishing its report summarizing the findings in September. And in news that will shock exactly no one, it concluded that the world is falling short of its Paris goals of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and ideally to 1.5C compared to the pre-industrial era. What now? That’s the question negotiators will seek to answer here at COP28. There are massively divergent opinions about how to get back on track, hitting on fundamental but divisive issues like whether to phase out fossil fuels. Latest draft: POLITICO’s Sara Schonhardt has got hold of a copy of the latest draft of the Global Stocktake. The 24-page document covers everything from the energy transition away from fossil fuels to climate finance to nature, sustainable lifestyles and trade. What’s in the Global Stocktake: A call for the rapid scaling up of clean power generation and energy efficiency measures. Alas, targets to triple and double those measures this decade are currently listed as optional. The text also reiterates the agreement from COP26 in Glasgow to accelerate efforts to phase down unabated coal power and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. What’s not in there: Calls to phase out unabated fossil fuels and coal power — language considered stronger than “phase down” — are currently in the text only as an option. Also absent from the draft is decisive language on how countries should address the gap in climate finance (meaning whether developed countries should take the lead). Watch this space: The draft allows lots of wriggle room and options, so much will depend on what happens over the coming 24 hours as negotiators work toward consensus before handing it over to ministers to thrash out. DISPATCH FROM THE PAVILIONS CHRISTMAS, COP STYLE: Stock up on frankincense just in time for the holidays! Yup, the Oman Pavilion is offering samples of the precious resin presented alongside the native plant from which it’s derived. Playbook is up for any suggestions on where to source gold and myrrh to complete the Three Wise Men-themed stocking fillers. Do They Know It’s Christmas? Yes, those sounds you’re hearing in the Crowne Plaza Dubai Marina lobby are indeed Christmas carols. TUESDAY’S HOTTEST TICKET … was the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (LACI) reception at Monkey Bar, overlooking the Museum of the Future. The guest list was, as the kids say, snatched. ISRAEL UPDATE: The Middle East crisis may have dominated backroom discussions among leaders in the early days of COP28, but Israel’s climate envoy insisted that tension is nowhere to be found behind the scenes. “It’s not in the negotiation rooms,” Gideon Behar told POLITICO’s Zack Colman in an interview. Though Middle East politics could again resurface as ministers arrive, he said that climate negotiations are “so serious and important for the future of all of us that we need to leave this arena free of any kind of geopolitics.” LUNCH TIPS: Check out the Oasis Food Hall in the Mobility Pavilion in the Green Zone. The Citronelle Club’s drooling chicken, ginger and black vinegar and omani shrimp and scallop siu mai dim sum are not to be missed.   A message from SSE:   PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: AKINWUMI ADESINA AFRICA GOES GREEN: Africa has traditionally leaned heavily on fossil fuels (helped by a rapacious international extractive industry). But Akinwumi Adesina, head of the African Development Bank, argues things are changing. Climate-proofing the continent: Speaking to Playbook, Adesina outlined a number of initiatives unveiled this week: a $25 billion climate finance project known as the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program, which aims to help Africa adapt intensive agriculture, a new $1 billion insurance scheme to help insure countries against catastrophic climate-related events, and a green infrastructure program that aims to leverage up to $10 billion of project finance, focusing on initiatives like the greening of ports, green metals and rail projects. Show me the money: So far this week, the bank has locked in $175 million in pledges for the infrastructure program from governments and private lenders in France, Germany and Japan, as well as entities like the West African Development Bank and the investment fund Three Cairns. By the numbers: “Africa is making the transition,” Adesina said. “As a bank, we are investing heavily in renewable energy. Today, we are devoting as a bank 44 percent of all our financing to climate finance; if you look at what we do in the energy space, 83 percent of all our financing for energy goes to renewable energy.” God’s chosen people! Adesina said the continent has embraced its most abundant energy source: the sun. “God loves Africa — he has given us solar for free … God doesn’t charge you anything for sunshine.” Hallelujah! Gas still king: “Africa can’t do the transition without using natural gas,” Adesina said. “We don’t need lectures on renewable energy — we are a huge user of renewables. But it’s a highly variable energy source,” he added, pointing to this summer’s power outage in Kenya. Out with the old: Adesina also said it’s high time to reform multilateral institutions like the World Bank. “I think those institutions are monolithic. I think they were set up at a different time. The world has moved on, but they haven’t. And the instruments that are being used are not appropriate for the challenges of today,” he said. SPOTTED — U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua exchanging a smile and cheeky handshake before delving into a roundtable on carbon management. — At the Mubadala and Page Society reception at the Mubadala Stand in the Energy Transition Pavilion Tuesday: Mubadala’s Brian Lott, Page President Roger Bolton, Daphne Wang from Bloomberg Philanthropies, Ramiro Prudencio of McKinsey, Deb Greenspan from FGS Global, Graham Ackerman from the Boston Consulting Group, Sunil John of ASDA’A. — At Axios House Tuesday night: Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, Allen Blue from LinkedIn, Devex Executive Vice President Kate Warren, Andrew Kalish, senior vice president at Handshake, journalist Suzanne Kianpour, influencer Tamaraah, Global Partnerships Vice President for Climate Reality Stephen Mills. WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY — Multi-Level Action for a Warming World, Foreign Policy, 9 a.m., 10th Floor of Uptown Tower DMCC, Dubai. — Stop Arctic Meltdown: a Call for Rapid Action by Shipping to Slow Arctic Melting, 11:30 a.m., Cryosphere Pavilion, Blue Zone. — Accelerating climate and agriculture solutions to advance global food security and nutrition outcomes, 2 p.m., Food and Agriculture Pavilion. — Sustainable Finance Forum at the Climate Action Innovation Zone, Madinat Jumeirah Conference Center. — Parliamentary meeting hosted by the Inter-Parliamentary Union and the Federal National Council of the UAE, Connect Conference Center, Green Zone, 2 p.m. — United for Wildlife event, Center for the Planet Pavilion, Green Zone, 4:45 p.m.  PROGRAMMING NOTE GONE SHOPPING: Global Playbook is going all-in on the “day of rest,” but we’ll be back in your inboxes bright and early Friday morning. Get in touch with any tips, advice or best brunch spots. THANKS to Zia Weise, Charlie Cooper, Karl Mathiesen, Sara Schonhardt, Zach Colman, Jack Lahart, Seb Starcevic. Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.   A message from SSE: The race is on: for green growth, for net zero, for energy security. We need to be bold, today. How do we keep the lights on when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine? The answer is having flexible low-carbon technologies to decarbonise our power system, enabling us to deliver cleaner, cheaper and more secure energy. But we aren't moving fast enough. At SSE we've set out the three things that can help countries keep the lights on when they need it most:flexible generation such as CCS, to provide a sustainable alternative to wind and solar power; battery storage, for retaining excess renewable energy for times when we need it; back-up generation such as pumped hydro, to ensure we have alternative renewable energy when demand exceeds generation. SSE. We power change. Find out more.     Follow us on Twitter Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  Global Playbook  |  West Wing Playbook  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook  |  Paris Playbook Follow us

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