3 factions that matter the most to any border deal

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Jan 23, 2024 View in browser   By Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano Presented by With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team The negotiators, including James Lankford (R-Okla.) say that an agreement among them is the hardest part. | Francis Chung/POLITICO THE BLOCS THAT COULD BLOCK A BORDER-UKRAINE VOTE Senators say they’re inches away from a bipartisan deal on border security measures that are designed to shake loose a multi-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine and Israel. But as hard as the final Is and Ts are to dot and cross, getting the votes to send any agreement to the president’s desk may well prove to be just as difficult. The three negotiators, Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), say that an agreement among them is the hardest part. But three critical groups of senators are going to make the difference between implosion, a squeaker vote that barely clears 60 – and the kind of robust total that will add pressure on the House to act. The three factions we’re watching most closely: Progressives: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), along with Sens. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), spoke out many weeks ago to oppose changes to asylum policy that didn’t include more left-leaning ideas they’ve fought for, such as a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Warren is among the members of that group who later signaled they won’t reject a GOP-blessed deal reflexively because they want to unlock Ukraine aid. Still, it’s easy to see some or all of them opposing the agreement as too conservative. “[My decision] depends on what the border measures are like,” Warren said Tuesday. “The importance of getting aid to Ukraine cannot be overstated. They were on the frontlines fighting for democracy. And they're running out of everything they need to wage that battle.” Conservatives: Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) often oppose emergency spending bills and are against sending additional aid to Ukraine. None are expected to support a future bipartisan deal – but the extent of their opposition matters a lot. Whether by forcing the consideration of polarizing amendments or holding up floor consideration, conservative critics could easily turn Senate passage of a border-Ukraine deal into a brutal slog. These are also the senators for whom former President Donald Trump’s influence will matter most. If Trump comes out against a deal, this group will have even more motivation to throw obstacles in its path. (Several of these Senate conservatives are planning a Wednesday press conference to discuss their views on the still-unreleased deal.) Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), another conservative who is against additional Ukraine aid and thinks the border component will fall short, told POLITICO that he spoke to Trump about it on Monday. “He said he'd seen the problems [at the border] up close and personal when he was president, and [that] for the last four years, [they] have even gotten worse,” Tuberville said of Trump’s take on the border. Anti-Trump Republicans: Party leaders will look to moderate Republicans who have shown a willingness to break with Trump, such as Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), to help get the deal done. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be automatic cheerleaders, though. Collins told reporters Tuesday that the text she’s seen of the potential deal included areas marked “TBD” and elements where “policy disagreements” clearly remained. Then there’s the mood: Fatigue over the dragged-out border negotiations is driving some senators to palpable displays of frustration. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) characterized the situation as “a freak show.” “It's time to land this plane, and let's make a decision and let's vote. You've got a choice: You can vote yes, you can vote no or you can jump the rail. But it's time,” Kennedy said. Others preached patience. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said a potential deal is perhaps “more complicated than people really have appreciated.” But he also acknowledged that negotiators’ optimism about text – coupled with the lack of that specific language so far – “sort of feeds people’s natural suspicions and conspiracy theories, because they are guessing about what’s actually in it.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was sharper, urging her colleagues to “give the courtesy to individuals that have been tasked by their conferences to focus on this,” referring to Sinema, Murphy and Lankford. “It's so easy for people to sit back and take potshots,” Murkowski added, “and say it's not good enough.” — Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano, with assists from Jordain Carney, Caitlin Emma and Anthony Adragna   A message from Instagram: More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download. According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1 Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done. Learn more.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Jan. 23, where we have to admit we laughed at this Trump troll.  ERNST & YOUNG … AND THE OTHERS Trump may be closer than ever to locking up the GOP nomination as New Hampshire holds its primary, but as Burgess so recently reported, not every Senate Republican is rallying around him quickly. Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) on Tuesday became the latest Republican senator to declare he’s not falling in line: “Are you trying to get a gut check — am I joining everyone else in joining the Trump establishment? Hell no,” Young told reporters Tuesday when asked about a Trump endorsement. He’s not the only holdout we’re watching closely. Here are a few more: Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa), the No. 4 GOP leader, spoke highly of Nikki Haley even after Trump won her home state’s caucus.  Minority Whip John Thune has said he doesn’t plan to weigh in until after the New Hampshire primary. Thune originally endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) before he dropped out of the race.  Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Collins and Murkowski, all of whom voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, would truly shock the Capitol by endorsing him. (Romney, for his part, has already vowed not to.) — Daniella Diaz   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     GOP BLOWBACK FOR ACB Some conservatives are fuming at Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, feeling double-crossed by her recent decision to side with the court’s liberal bloc in allowing the Biden administration to remove razor wire installed by Texas along the nation’s southern border. “I was surprised but also disappointed,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) said in an interview. “She wouldn't be able to be on the bench were it not for the political sacrifices of a lot of people who I think feel quite betrayed by that opinion." Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), a Judiciary Committee member, summed up his response in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter: “Et tu, ACB?” Barrett was confirmed by the Senate in the waning days of the Trump administration, with conservatives fighting particularly hard to push her past unanimous Democratic opposition. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also voted against her. Still, other senators were more reluctant to knock Barrett herself even as they expressed frustration with the decision. “Judges aren’t supposed to make political decisions. They’re supposed to interpret the law,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “I was a judge for 13 years. I don't get surprised by judicial decisions.” — Anthony Adragna   A message from Instagram:   FIRST IN INSIDE CONGRESS: KATHERINE CLARK TO FLORIDA  House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) is planning a Thursday visit to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the site of a deadly 2018 school shooting, along with Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and families of the victims. Clark will be the highest-ranking House Democrat to visit the school, a trip that closely follows one made by Education Secretary Miguel Cardona. It’s the fourth tour of the school Moskowitz has organized as part of a long-running House Democratic push for gun safety legislation. The building has remained untouched since the shooting but is scheduled to be demolished this summer. — Nicholas Wu    A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens. According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1 Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done. Learn more. 1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023.   HUDDLE HOTDISH A new culture war has hit Congress — and it’s over the nicotine pouches known as Zyn. Sen. Roger Marshall came to Capitol Hill today with quite the tie. (H/T Anthony) D.C. just passed a law requiring job postings to include a pay range and banning asking job applicants their prior salary history, but Congress is exempt. Check out this cool professional development opportunity for Hill staff.  QUICK LINKS  Gaetz House ethics probe picks up steam with new witnesses contacted: Sources, from Will Steakin at ABC News Tim Kennedy takes veteran suicide forum to nation’s largest gun show, from Hope Hodge Seck at The Military Times Bob Menendez’s golden rule, from Jesús Rodríguez at The Washington Post Mike Johnson Fought to Keep Alcohol Out of This Louisiana Town, from Tim Dickinson at Rolling Stone The Biden Deepfake Robocall Is Only the Beginning, from Vittoria Elliott and Makena Kelly at Wired Audio recording reveals the moment that senior Republican figure tried to bribe Kari Lake not to run for Senate, from Rob Crilly in The Daily Mail   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      TRANSITIONS  Milla Anderson has joined FCC Commissioner Geoffrey Starks’ office as policy adviser. She previously was policy adviser for Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.). TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is in session. WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL Quiet. TRIVIA MONDAY’S ANSWER: Benjamin Wainer correctly answered that the two NFL teams that offered Gerald Ford a professional football contract were the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Benjamin: Which future United States senator wrote a report that inspired the creation of the phrase, “Blaming the victim”? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

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