Abortion on the ballot not clear win for Dems

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Jan 03, 2024 View in browser   By Chelsea Cirruzzo and Ben Leonard Driving The Day Democrats hope that putting state abortion-rights initiatives on the ballot will drive turnout and boost their candidates. | Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images WHO VOTES ON ABORTION? Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, voters have decisively upheld abortion rights in their states when such measures have appeared on the ballot — but that doesn’t mean Democrats are getting the voting boost they want. Instead, Republican voters are heading to the polls and, in addition to voting on abortion measures, they’re also voting in GOP candidates, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein, Jessica Piper and Madison Fernandez report. A POLITICO analysis of five abortion-related measures since 2022 found that Democratic turnout didn’t increase in states that had abortion referendums, compared with those that didn’t, contrary to what many Democrats hope for. Several Democrats on the same ballots as abortion measures lost their races. Meanwhile, many Democrats who ran as abortion-rights champions, even in states without accompanying referendums, outperformed expectations. Why it matters: Progressives are pushing to put abortion rights on the ballot in dozens of states, including Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which could have an outsized impact on control of the Senate and the presidential election. “It’s not necessarily a death knell for Republicans, but it is a net negative,” said Stan Barnes, a political consultant and former Republican state senator in Arizona, where progressive groups are working to put an abortion-rights amendment before voters. “The ballot measure drives the point, and it compels candidates to take a position, and that can be a difficult thing to do for a pro-life candidate because most people want some sort of legal abortion right.” Those initiatives will likely draw some support from Republican voters. POLITICO’s analysis found varied levels of crossover voting, with a decisive share of voters in some states backing both Republican candidates and abortion rights. That underscores the ambiguity for 2024 when a handful of states will have abortion rights on the same ballot as GOP candidates who support abortion restrictions. Although abortion referendums drew relatively high turnout for off-year elections, 2024 is the first test of the phenomenon in a presidential election year, when millions of voters who sat on the sidelines for the referendums are expected to cast ballots. Democrats hope the initiatives make the topic unavoidable for Republicans, many of whom have tried to skirt the issue. “[Abortion] being on the ballot reminds people, it makes it even more salient,” said Nichole Johnson, campaign manager for Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat running for Senate in Arizona. “But regardless, it is going to be important.” … In related news, the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Tuesday that the federal government cannot require emergency room doctors in Texas to perform abortions when needed to stabilize a patient, Reuters reported. WELCOME TO WEDNESDAY PULSE. Your newsletter writer is attempting Dry January — not just for the health benefits but also the financial benefits. Have you seen the cocktail prices around here? Circle back to us with tips, scoops and feedback to ccirruzzo@politico.com and bleonard@politico.com and follow along @ChelseaCirruzzo and @_BenLeonard_. Listen to today’s Pulse Check podcast At the White House The White House has scheduled numerous meetings — including 10 just this week — with outside groups about the FDA's proposed ban of menthol cigarettes. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images MENTHOL MEETINGS ABOUND — The White House has more than 10 meetings scheduled this week on the FDA’s proposed menthol ban, with many more to come later this month, according to Office of Management and Budget records, Ben reports. The meetings come after the Biden administration last month delayed its anticipated ban on flavored cigars and menthol cigarettes into 2024. It had been slated to be finalized in August. Who’s in the meetings: Administration officials are set to meet with several groups, including public health law and smoking alternative representatives and coalitions of distributors and convenience stores. The American Heart Association had a meeting scheduled for Tuesday, and the Law Enforcement Action Partnership — a nonprofit focused on criminal justice and drug policy reforms — has one slated for Thursday. The background: Political pressure related to a potential menthol ban has increased amid concern from law enforcement groups that it would escalate tensions between police tasked with enforcing the ban and communities of color because Black smokers predominantly use menthol cigarettes. The delay means a decision could be announced in the thick of President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. The FDA has been developing a menthol ban for more than a decade after its tobacco advisory committee concluded that menthol cigarettes disproportionately harm Black Americans. For years, menthol cigarettes have been the only legally sold cigarettes with a flavor other than tobacco. Medicare OUT-OF-POCKET CAPS IN EFFECT — Medicare enrollees who use expensive drugs will pay less for out-of–pocket expenses under a provision in the Inflation Reduction Act that went into effect on Jan. 1. The provision eliminated the 5 percent coinsurance requirement under Part D coverage for enrollees who meet a certain spending threshold, called catastrophic coverage. The out-of-pocket cap is now about $3,250 a year and will drop to $2,000 in 2025. “Prior to this year, people under Medicare Part D could pay thousands and thousands of dollars for drugs that treat very serious conditions like cancer,” Tricia Neuman, senior vice president of KFF, told Pulse. Without the co-insurance requirement, she said enrollees will save thousands on their out-of-pocket expenses. According to a KFF survey, patients who pay for certain breast, ovarian and prostate cancer drugs paid between $11,400 and $12,500 out of pocket in 2023, but only a quarter of adults 65 and older know about the new provision. Other provisions: Starting Jan. 1, there’s expanded eligibility for a program that reduces drug plan premiums and deductibles for low-income older adults. What to watch: Despite lawsuits that could threaten the law’s implementation, CMS is moving ahead on Medicare drug price negotiations. The next major deadline is Feb. 1, when CMS will send initial price offers for the 10 selected drugs to each company. Lobby Watch SITE-NEUTRAL FIGHT HEATS UP — A physician-led health care advocacy group has spent nearly $200,000 on a video ad campaign to urge more doctors in 16 states to support site-neutral payment reform in the Senate. The campaign launches today. A fight is heating up over whether the Senate will agree with provisions in a House bill passed last month. Congress returns in full next week. The group behind the ad campaign, the Committee to Protect Healthcare, wants the Senate to take site-neutral provisions in the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act , which would require hospital outpatient departments to be reimbursed at the same rate as doctors’ offices. Hospital groups, however, have pushed back, arguing that the provisions would harm hospitals by cutting payments. Public Health HOLIDAY COVID-SURGE SIGNS — More than half of wastewater surveillance sites nationwide showed an increase in Covid-19 virus levels in the weeks leading up to Christmas — though the number of wastewater sites reporting data has dropped since mid-December, per the CDC. Wastewater surveillance can serve as a warning sign for an increase in the amount of viral transmission in a community, which means the latest numbers hint at a surge in cases coming from holiday travel and gatherings. Fifty-five percent of 873 sites reported that, as of Dec. 25, virus levels in their wastewater had risen in the past 15 days, with 33 percent reporting “large increases.” Fifteen percent remained with stable virus levels, and 31 percent saw a decline. Names in the News Prospect Medical Holdings, Inc., a hospital group, has registered Chamber Hill Strategies as a new lobby. The Electronic Health Record Association has elected Stephanie Jamison, of Greenway Health, chair of its executive committee and reelected Vice Chair Dr. William Hayes, of CPSI. Danielle Friend, of Epic, was elected to the committee and David Bucciferro, of Foothold Technology-Radicle Health, and Ida Mantashi, of Modernizing Medicine, were reelected. PhRMA has registered a new lobby: YC Consulting, LLC.  WHAT WE'RE READING KFF Health News reports on the role family doctors could play in alleviating the maternal health crisis in rural areas. STAT reports on a failed promise to Texas residents that their taxes would fund health care for people with low incomes 10 years later.   Follow us on Twitter Dan Goldberg @dancgoldberg Chelsea Cirruzzo @chelseacirruzzo Katherine Ellen Foley @katherineefoley Lauren Gardner @Gardner_LM Kelly Hooper @kelhoops Robert King @rking_19 Ben Leonard @_BenLeonard_ David Lim @davidalim Megan Messerly @meganmesserly Alice Miranda Ollstein @aliceollstein Carmen Paun @carmenpaun Daniel Payne @_daniel_payne Ruth Reader @RuthReader Erin Schumaker @erinlschumaker Megan R. Wilson @misswilson   Follow us

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