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By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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READY FOR 2024? Happy new year to our dear readers. This is your Brussels-based correspondent Stuart Lau, with a very warm welcome back to your quintessential transatlantic newsletter. I’ll be reporting from Taiwan next week to cover the presidential election on the ground, so please feel free to drop me an email if you have time for a cup of oolong. My partner-in-crime Phelim Kine will pen Thursday’s edition from the U.S.
ELECTIONS EVERYWHERE (BUT NOT IN CHINA)
BUSY YEAR AHEAD: Ballot boxes will be set up across the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom; hundreds of millions of voters will be preoccupied with debating their political futures. In some parts, far-right, isolationist or pro-Russia elements are on the rise. This gives Beijing a golden opportunity.
First, the timeline:
— Taiwan’s presidential election will take place on January 13, setting the stage for what analysts say could be a protracted period of Chinese aggression or threats between election day and the presidential inauguration on May 20, if the winner is William Lai, whom Beijing harshly criticizes as a secessionist.
— The Conservative Party could end its 14-year rule in the UK in May, if the general election takes place around that time, as the opposition Labour Party predicts it will.
— An EU-wide ballot will be held June 6-9 for the European Parliament election, which determines the line-up of the next European Commission. All eyes will be on whether the far right surges.
— And to top it all off, the race for the White House on November 5. That’s the one Beijing is watching most closely.
Is that all? Fifty countries will go to the polls in 2024 — which has been dubbed a “historic election year.” The other key battlegrounds include India, Indonesia, Belgium and Austria.
And Russia, where President Vladimir Putin is almost certain to be reelected in mid-March.
CHINA WILL PLAY UP EUROPE GOODWILL: In anticipation of a potential Donald Trump comeback, Beijing will “very likely play the Europe card,” according to a senior European diplomat.
Dinner in Versailles? Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning a visit to Paris to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties, expected within the first half of the year. Two diplomats said the trip was initially planned for January — Charles de Gaulle officially established diplomatic relations with Mao Zedong on January 27, 1954, in a snub to Washington — but the timeline “looks tight” for now.
Germany’s the other constant. Berlin is unaffected by the 2024 tide of national elections — which means China may continue the charm offensive like it did last year, “driving a wedge between Europe and the U.S.,” Nils Schmid, the German lawmaker who is the foreign policy spokesman of the ruling Social Democratic Party’s parliamentary group, told China Watcher.
“This can be expected to continue in 2024, especially with regard to the forthcoming new European Commission after the European Parliament election,” Schmid said, adding that this “will not much resonate with Europeans as long as China doesn’t offer any concrete improvements on trade and technology issues.”
But there’s an even more problematic aspect — Beijing’s flirtation with Europe’s far right. “We have lately seen efforts by Chinese officials to marshal support from extreme, partially anti-democratic parties in Germany and Europe,” Schmid said. “This pattern is similar to what Putin has been trying to do in terms of electoral interference and undermining democracy in the West.”
China should be aware of the negative consequences of those machinations to Putin’s relationship with the West, Schmid said, adding: “Openly betting on the success of authoritarian and fascist political forces is not a clever idea for Chinese diplomacy.”
TRANSLATING CHINA: XI’S ORDERS TO DIPLOMATS
CHINA UPS THE DIPLOMATIC ANTE: As the West descends into a year of electoral confusion, Xi has demanded his diplomats go further.
Long list: Xi unveiled a 10-point review at a late-December “Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs.” The top line: “On the new journey, major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics will enter a new stage where much more can be accomplished.”
Many of the 10 points re-up Xi’s theories and ideologies, including the success of the Belt and Road initiative, and the importance of head-of-state (read: Xi)-level diplomacy.
What next? According to the meeting which Xi chaired, diplomats are required to uphold six imperatives, including the need to “shoulder China's responsibility as a major country,” “uphold fundamental principles and break new ground,” “carry forward our fighting spirit,” and “leverage our institutional strengths.”
Befriending the Global South: “We must take a clear and firm position [on major international issues], hold the international moral high ground, and unite and rally the overwhelming majority in our world,” the Communist Party said in a statement, echoing recent firm statements backing Gaza.
Confronting the US: “We must reject all acts of power politics and bullying, and vigorously defend our national interests and dignity,” the statement added. He’s looking at you too, the Netherlands.
Rare admissions: In his New Year’s address, Xi drew a rare reference to China’s struggling businesses and unemployed workers. It’s the first time Xi has mentioned economic challenges in his annual messages since he started giving them in 2013. CNN has more.
‘ACCOMPLISHING MORE’ IN PRACTICE
EXHIBIT A — THE PHILIPPINES: On Thursday, the Chinese military sent a not-so-veiled warning to the Philippines amid escalating tensions over several run-ins in the South China Sea. It said Beijing won’t “turn a blind eye” to what it called Manila’s “very dangerous and extremely unprofessional” provocation.
Warning Washington, too: “We urge the U.S. to immediately stop meddling in the South China Sea issue, stop emboldening and supporting Philippine infringement and provocation, and safeguard regional security with concrete actions,” defense ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said at a news conference.
Ramping up pressure: This comes after Manila accused the Chinese coastguard and maritime militia of repeatedly firing water cannons at its resupply boats. Wu called the accusations, apparently supported by video footage, “purely false hype,” and said the Philippine ships “intruded into” waters near a disputed shoal and “proactively rammed” a vessel belonging to the Chinese Coast Guard.
A day later, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning vowed to “resolutely respond” to the Philippines’ plan to build permanent structures in the shoals.
EXHIBIT B — THE MYANMAR MESS: Another regional focus for Chinese diplomats is on Myanmar, where regional fighting in the north poses a security threat to the bordering Yunnan province of China.
Long story short: The Myanmar military junta, which stripped Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi of power almost three years ago, has been protecting/running lucrative scam centers targeting Chinese citizens. When Beijing’s patience ran out, it gave a nod to Myanmar’s regional rebels to take down those operations, to the junta’s dismay.
‘Peace talks’: In what initially looked like a Chinese masterstroke, the foreign ministry announced mid-December that it had mediated peace talks between the ruling junta and rebel groups, claiming the parties agreed on a temporary cease-fire and dialogue.
The PR spin went well for … a fortnight — until the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar issued a travel alert last week, and urged citizens to leave the Laukkai area in Kokang region in northern Myanmar as soon as possible, given the security risks.
“The current security situation in Myanmar’s Kokang Self-Administered Zone is serious and complex,” said Mao, of the Chinese foreign ministry. “We hope the relevant Myanmar parties maintain the highest level of restraint, take the initiative to de-escalate the situation on the ground, jointly push for a soft landing of the situation in northern Myanmar.”
Further reading: Al Jazeera has this ace analysis, and the BBC also has a good backgrounder.
TAIWAN ELECTION HEATS UP
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: The election Beijing watches most closely — Taiwan’s presidential poll next weekend — is a tight race. While the ruling Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai leads with 40 percent support in a poll by My Formosa, the two opposition parties combined have 47 percent.
The key to success now lies in the Taiwan People’s Party, whose leader Ko Wen-je comes last in the polls — will his supporters change tack and vote strategically?
It’s been a rollercoaster.
Chinese coercive campaigning has begun: Beijing has been ramping up the pressure ahead of the election. That includes so-called gray-zone (or hybrid) warfare. “We represent all the people of China,” the voice from the Chinese Navy intones. “The People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government of China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.”
Actual threat vs. diplomatic disbelief: Chinese media have also been running articles justifying a potential war against Taiwan. Take this October piece on the Global Times, China’s nationalist tabloid: “If the Chinese government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan question, it will be a war of reunification, legitimacy and justice from the moral high ground,” according to Lieutenant General He Lei, former vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences of the People’s Liberation Army.
On the other hand, several European diplomats who talked to China Watcher over the past few months cast doubt on the military threat — at least for now. A better indicator, they say, would be how Beijing might react to a possible Trump victory in the U.S. election in November, as he’s been downplaying America’s commitment to Taiwan Strait security.
Targeting singers? China has denied media reports that its investigation into alleged lip-syncing by popular Taiwanese rock band Mayday is politically motivated. The BBC has the story.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
BIDEN PLEDGES 'RESPONSIBLE STEWARDSHIP' OF TIES: President Joe Biden pledged that he would ensure "responsible stewardship” of U.S.-China relations in 2024. "I look forward to building on the progress made by our predecessors and our many meetings and discussions to advance the U.S.-China relationship," Biden said in a New Year message to Xi, China's foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday. Xi, for his part, said he and Biden should take "practical actions to promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations" in his New Year's message to Biden.
HOUSE CHINA COMMITTEE'S 2024 LEGISLATION CHALLENGE: Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, spent the committee's first year trashing Biden's efforts to thaw relations as "zombie engagement" and slammed U.S. businesses that deal with China as accepting "golden blindfolds." The committee proposed a slate of 150 policy recommendations last month that would radically overhaul the U.S. economic and trade relationship with Beijing — including imposing a raft of new tariffs that some lawmakers argued would hobble the U.S. agriculture industry by blocking off its largest market.
But that aggressive approach to Beijing has sown internal divisions and dismayed some China experts, who warn that the committee's approach harms administration efforts to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship. And that may make finding consensus on legislation difficult. Phelim has the full story here.
HERE COME CHINA'S AI CHATBOTS: The vice director of Tsinghua University's Positive Psychology Research Center in China, Yukun Zhao, has created a chatbot that channels the theories and writings of Martin Seligman, the influential American psychologist. Meet "Ask Martin," a talking chatbot whose answers draw deeply from Seligman's ideas, whose prose sounds like a folksier version of Seligman's own speech, and whose wisdom is accessible to all.
Seligman says he’s delighted with the chatbot his former student Zhao has created, but it highlights concerns about unsanctioned use of AI to impersonate humans and fuels worries among U.S. lawmakers about who, ultimately, will reap the profits of American intellectual property in the age of AI. Phelim and Mohar Chatterjee have the full story here.
DRIVERLESS CARS TECH BATTLE: A key technology in futuristic cars is quickly becoming a new flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Lidar sensor technology has helped fuel the rise of driverless robotaxis roaming cities like San Francisco and Phoenix. But as automakers prepare to deploy lidar-enabled features such as adaptive cruise control and blind spot detection in more consumer vehicles, the homegrown industry is mounting a wide-ranging lobbying offensive against a leading Chinese rival that's stepping up its own PR game. POLITICO's Tanya Snyder has the full story here.
MORE HEADLINES
Economist: China is shoring up the great firewall for the AI age.
Financial Times: Predictions: China's record-low births will leave a global mark.
Guardian: British private schools in China under threat as new 'patriotic' law comes in.
New York Times: Asian American officials cite unfair scrutiny and lost jobs in China spy tensions.
Wall Street Journal: American spies confront a new, formidable China.
MANY THANKS: To editor Zoya Sheftalovich and producer Seb Starcevic.
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