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Biden’s gamble

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Jan 25, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Zachary Warmbrodt and Jasper Goodman

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QUICK FIX

After the New Hampshire primary, Biden world is touting Donald Trump’s weakness with independent voters. But a new poll — shared first with MM readers — shows that parts of the president’s economic platform might struggle with a similar constituency.

The data comes from American Compass, a conservative think tank that’s trying to nudge the GOP to question free-market corporate ideology and focus more on individuals and workers. The group, in partnership with YouGov, surveyed 1,000 Americans in November about the Biden administration’s economic policies. (Consumer sentiment has increased since then.)

American Compass found that people were slightly more positive about their financial well-being under President Joe Biden than in other recent polls. The president got positive ratings from Democrats and Republicans on tariffs, infrastructure investment and lowering drug prices.

But questions about more polarizing economic issues found not just a partisan rift, but also less buy-in from independents and signs of a class breakdown.

 

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Independents veered closer to Republicans and were neutral to negative on questions about spending to combat climate change and easing student loan burdens by postponing payments and forgiving debt. Working-class respondents — those with less than a four-year degree and a household income of $30,000-$80,000 — responded in a similar way to those questions.

Both groups were also negative when asked about letting immigrants who enter the country illegally remain in the U.S. and receive work permits.

Higher-earning Americans, those with more than $150,000 in household income, were generally more positive on Biden’s economic policies. More than 40 percent said they were better off financially since he became president, while less than 20 percent of working-class individuals — and independents — said they were doing better. (UAW President Shawn Fain in an endorsement Wednesday touted Biden’s record helping working-class people and called Trump a ”scab.”)

American Compass executive director Oren Cass told MM that the survey helps validate the idea that “a re-alignment focused more on where conservatives can address working-class interests is in fact totally plausible and happening.” It comes as Democrats struggle to get traction with the “Bidenomics” pitch.

“If Biden could get off of these issues, he’d probably have a good chance of winning comfortably,” Cass said. “If the election is about these issues, he’s almost certainly going to lose.”

It’s Thursday — Please send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

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Driving the day

SEC Chair Gary Gensler speaks on T+1 settlement at 8 a.m. … GDP data for 2023 released at 8:30 a.m. … The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event on the next steps for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, featuring Secretary-General Neil Esho at 9 a.m. … Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on national flood insurance reauthorization at 10 a.m. … Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gives a speech on the Biden economy in Chicago at 1:35 p.m.

SEC ushers in new SPAC crackdown — From our Declan Harty: “The SEC is ratcheting up the scrutiny on SPACs, a breed of blank-check company that became a Wall Street phenomenon three years ago before the market crumbled.

“Special purpose acquisition companies have long existed as an alternative route for private companies to go public. SPACs are essentially skeleton companies that list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq with the express purpose of combining with a privately held entity that can later take over their spots on the exchanges.

“Now the SEC is putting the SPAC model on equal footing with the traditional — and heavily regulated — IPO.”

Sinema joins Tester in climate disclosure fight — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) joined Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) on a letter to the SEC Wednesday pushing back on its forthcoming climate-risk disclosure regulation, Eleanor Mueller and Declan report.

In its current form, the rule requires publicly traded companies to report on their direct and indirect carbon emissions. Tester has long said that the latter, dubbed Scope 3, could unfairly burden farmers and others who work with the companies.

"If it is not possible to develop Scope 3 in a way that does not burden small businesses in a public company’s supply chain, including agricultural producers, it would be better to take it out of the final rule altogether," the lawmakers wrote.

 

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On the Hill

Tillis struggles to shop SEC cyber CRA — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said in an interview he is "having some challenges, even with Republican members," in building congressional support for his push to overturn the SEC's cybersecurity rule, Eleanor reports.

The regulation requires public companies to disclose certain cybersecurity breaches within four days of determining they could be "material" to investors. Tillis and other Republicans have raised concerns that the short turnaround could pose risks to national security, including by empowering ransom seekers.

"You have some people say, 'Well, of course we have to report breaches,'" Tillis said of the pushback to his resolution, which would negate the rule under the Congressional Review Act. "I say, 'Yes, we do. And I'd be fine if [SEC Chair Gary] Gensler had come out with a reasonable policy.'"

The Senate will vote on the resolution next week, Tillis said. Biden is likely to veto the measure if it reaches his desk.

Senate Banking to dig into flood insurance — Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown said this morning's hearing on the National Flood Insurance Program "is the first time we're really serious about it," Eleanor reports.

Until now, "not the committee, nor the Senate, has put the time in to really write something," the Ohio Democrat told reporters. "We're not going to come up with a bill in the next three months, I wouldn't imagine — but this is the first time."

 

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Regulatory Corner

FDIC attorney pleads guilty to child sex exploitation — The Justice Department announced late Tuesday that a former FDIC attorney has pleaded guilty to sexually exploiting children. Mark Black, who previously served as a special counsel to the FDIC’s general counsel’s office, “was a member of two online groups dedicated to exploiting children,” the DOJ said in a press release. He is set to be sentenced on April 30 and could face up to life in prison.

More Treasury rules incoming — Declan reports that the SEC will vote next week on whether to dial up scrutiny of the most active players — including high-frequency traders — in the almighty U.S. Treasury market, according to an agency notice. The rule was first proposed in March 2022.

Emergency bank lending program to expire March 11 — The Federal Reserve announced late Wednesday that an emergency bank lending program set up following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will close on March 11, as scheduled. The Fed also raised the interest rate on new loans from the Bank Term Funding Program for the remainder of its existence.

Economy

First in MM — More than 9 in 10 U.S. voters of both parties say they are more likely to support a candidate who backs a bipartisan fiscal commission to reduce the national debt, a poll out today from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found.

The survey, conducted jointly by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican firm North Star Opinion Research, also found that 8 in 10 voters say their concern over the national debt has increased in the last few years.

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