With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team WE HAVE SOME EXCITING NEWS: A new (election) year, a new speaker, and now a new name for this newsletter! Starting on Jan. 8, this newsletter will become “Inside Congress” to align with our companion “Inside Congress Live” blog, which you should definitely check out if you haven’t yet. MIKE JOHNSON’S 2024 RESOLUTION: MAY IT NOT GET WORSE THAN 2023 Welcome to a new year for the House GOP. It looks a lot like the last one — except potentially even more painful. House Republicans will return to session Tuesday facing an already chaotic situation: They’ve got only eight session days before the first government shutdown deadline, and their narrow majority is set to shrink even further, at least temporarily. Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s office announced Friday that he’s reached a “significant milestone” in his battle against blood cancer, but that he will be working remotely until February. Once Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) leaves on Jan. 21, that will give Republicans only 218 seats at a pivotal time. And their to-do list is long, going well beyond federal funding: There’s an increasingly complicated battle over the border (more on that below), looming decisions on two impeachments and a divisive spy powers fight that caused major GOP infighting last year. It all adds up to a massive set of challenges for Speaker Mike Johnson, who will have to balance a rolling set of deadlines that require him to cut bipartisan deals with his right flank’s increasing eagerness to kvetch about leadership in public. “How many things can you keep punting? We’ve punted a lot,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told us in a recent interview, while lamenting in another that the Republican majority has “nothing” to campaign on — the kind of comment that thrills Democratic campaign operatives. That’s not to mention Johnson’s political headaches: Republicans have a fight on their hands over former Rep. George Santos’ (R-N.Y.) seat. And they are privately preparing for more colleagues to announce retirements after Rep. Doug Lamborn on Friday joined the already long list of members bowing out at the end of the year, including fellow Colorado Republican Rep. Ken Buck. Let’s get to the most pressing matter — avoiding a partial shutdown: Congressional leaders are close to a deal on how much total cash they have to spend. We’re told it's still possible to release that so-called toplines agreement today. If not, they likely have to have it finalized by early next week to have any chance at meeting the first deadline on Jan. 19. What’s on the table: Negotiators are looking at a funding framework that could provide about $773 billion in funding for non-defense programs, while yanking back unspent Covid aid and expediting — or increasing — cuts to IRS enforcement. Democrats aren’t likely to go any lower than that figure, according to a person familiar with the talks. It combines the $704 billion baseline amount for non-defense spending that was written into last summer’s bipartisan debt deal with about $69 billion in funding adjustments negotiated on the side. The real test for Johnson, though, will be selling any deal to his conference. Spending has been a constant point of tension between leadership and ultra-conservatives. After hardliners helped elect Johnson as speaker in October, believing that he would fight in a way they felt former Speaker Kevin McCarthy didn’t, some of them are directing growing disenchantment toward the Louisianan. One area where they want him to take a stand: The border, where Republicans believe they have a political advantage. Bipartisan Senate negotiators are hoping to have something to show for their work by Tuesday, but Johnson is facing growing calls from his right flank to consider forcing a partial shutdown if Democrats don’t cough up significant border concessions. It’s not just members of the Freedom Caucus saying so. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) warned during a Thursday tele-townhall that he had voted against previous stopgap bills without “meaningful border security solutions in there” and would do so again if one is brought up ahead of the Jan. 19 deadline. (Johnson has sworn off additional short-term funding bills.) Worth noting: The fault lines within the conference over spending date back to before Johnson’s ascension to the gavel (and unlike McCarthy, his detractors aren’t threatening to boot him from the office just yet). Plus, in reality, he will be able to pass any bipartisan deal without some of his most conservative members, who tend to oppose funding deals anyway, given the prospect of Democratic support. – Jordain Carney, with assists from Caitlin Emma and Olivia Beavers GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Jan. 5, where we are ready for the first weekend of the year. (Enjoy it before Congress returns.) EARLY REACTION TO DUNN’S RUN Former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn’s congressional bid picked up some early praise on Friday from some of his potential Democratic colleagues in the Maryland delegation — though they stressed they would stay out of the primary. “He called me last night, and we talked a little bit,” Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) said in a brief interview. “He's got an important story to tell. I don't know who all is in that race, but I think he'd be a good candidate for sure.” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) praised Dunn as “a friend of mine who demonstrated enormous valor and courage on January 6, and also enormous courage in confronting Republican election deniers and Donald Trump afterwards.” Although, with Dunn already facing a primary to take the seat of retiring Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.), Raskin added a note to temper his enthusiasm: “There's a really strong field of candidates.” Both lawmakers spoke to POLITICO on the sidelines of a press conference marking the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. One of Dunn’s former USCP colleagues, Aquilino Gonell, said he’d back his colleague and exhorted the audience to do so as well. Dunn doesn’t have the field to himself, with a crowded field of candidates already in the race for Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District. He’d counted Raskin as one of his closest congressional allies along with Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), though the veteran officer told POLITICO the decision to run for Congress was his alone. – Nicholas Wu RANKED CHOICE NOT EXACTLY HILL’S TOP CHOICE Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) recently endorsed the idea of ranked-choice voting as a way to expand the country’s political center as he mulls a potential third-party presidential bid — but his colleagues in Congress are decidedly not on board yet. During interviews with some two dozen lawmakers on the topic, many Democrats said they’re at least open to the electoral reform that’s been tried during federal balloting in Maine and Alaska as well as local contests. But Republicans, from moderate Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) to Freedom Caucus member Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.), panned it. Collins, who comfortably won outright in 2020 with a ranked-choice voting system, pooh-poohed claims by supporters that ranked-choice voting empowers the political center. In her state, Collins noted, “it applies [only] to federal races, and that I find that to be rather ironic, if it’s such a great idea.” Then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) actually led Jared Golden (D-Maine) in the initial count of their 2018 House race, but the Democrat prevailed once ranked-choice voting kicked in. (Golden won a 2022 rematch under ranked-choice voting, but that time he led after round one.) Beyond Collins, members from both parties pointed to progressive victories in local New York City contests run under ranked-choice voting as proof that it’s not exactly the ideological equalizer that a centrist like Manchin might prefer. Manchin, during a recent interview about his ranked-choice voting endorsement, cited Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) win over a Trump-backed primary opponent in her red state as an indication of the power of the system. But as Murkowski herself pointed out, she first prevailed in a free-for-all initial election before ranked-choice voting came into the picture. Ultimately, after ranked-choice came into the picture, she comfortably bested Kelly Tshibaka by around eight percentage points. “I would like to think that it will lead to more individuals that have the freedom to operate without the constraints of having a worry that 'I'm going to get primaried,'” Murkowski said of the novel voting mechanism, counting herself as a lawmaker who believes “it can be exported.” She recalled being “a little apprehensive about it” initially. “But people are not voting so much based on their party's nominee — or where their party directs them to go — they're using their own heads.” The ranked-choice voting push has expanded to other states like Nevada, though Democratic officials in the Silver State have lined up staunchly against such a move. – Anthony Adragna
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